According to the USA Today/Gallup Obama now stands at 55% overall approval. Placing him tenth among the 12 post WW2 Presidents at this point in their administrations. Given that he won election with 53% of the vote - a 55% percent approval is a clear indicator that the dust has settled.
Both polls confirm movement that has been evident for a while. Independents are increasingly skittish, any residual GOP goodwill has vanished and Democrats still largely support the President. His marks on the economy and health care are down substantially. Numbers on the economy are always the most malleable. Regardless of what he does - if the economy turns around so will Obama's numbers.
The most interesting divide is in the WaPo/ABC poll regarding health care:
Beyond partisan shifts in Obama's ratings, sharp declines have occurred among those with household incomes above $50,000. And those with incomes above $50,000 now are split evenly between Obama and Republicans on dealing with health care. In June, they favored Obama by a 21-point margin.
Emphasis mine.
That is a cratering in support from a key group on a key issue. Given that any proposal will most likely include higher taxes for those in upper income brackets, this nosedive on health care could easily spread to other issues. In those numbers the seedlings for any future Obama troubles will sprout.
Dad's Day Coming: Elmer Bernstein scored the movie containing the best movie Dad of all time...the score is gorgeous as well. (Say what you like about Hollywood...every few years a masterpiece comes out of this town. What other "art" can say that?) "When a child asks you something, answer him, for goodness sake. But don't make a production of it. Children are children, but they can spot an evasion faster than adults,
and evasion simply muddles 'em." Atticus Finch, in To Kill a Mockingbird by Harper Lee.
Music: First things First. Carolyn at Make Them Accountable has some great stuff to read...the stuff about The Nation's excuses for Obama almost made my head explode, so FIRST watch the Do Re Mi clip THEN peruse the news, it will go down easier.
Sympathy Barf (by John Caruso at A Tiny Revolution) Katrina vanden Heuvel's ode to the alpha Democrat:"On Afghanistan, I am concerned that it will bleed us of the resources needed for economic recovery, further destabilize Pakistan, open a rift with our European allies, and negate the positive effects of withdrawing from Iraq on our image in the Muslim world." Got that? Incinerating poor people in Afghanistan is bad because it might cost too much money to allow us to prop up the economy-among other similarly weighty and pressing concerns.
Note in particular the lack of any moral basis for rejecting a massive increase in the level of death and destruction inflicted by the American military in Afghanistan. This is par for the course for liberals these days; piffling considerations like human life or international law are discounted for them in the age of Obama, in which the golden calf of Pragmatism is worshiped with single-minded devotion. No, such outmoded concerns are the sole provenance of fuzzy-headed idealists who haven't managed to grasp that all the fundamental equations of moral calculus changed the instant a Democrat started doing the killing.
More on Katrina's editorial: Exceptionally Awful (by Arthur Silber at the Power of Narrative) From Katrina the Kut-up: "negate the positive effects of withdrawing from Iraq..." In what universe is maintaining a residual force of 50,000-75,000 American personnel, military and otherwise, for decades to come, along with a series of "enduring bases" and an embassy the size of Vatican City, in what is in every operative respect an American colony, considered "withdrawing"? You silly goose: in the universe of the lib-prog who lies steadily and with malice aforethought when it suits her political purposes. But this is lying for a Democratic president, so it's All Exceptionally Good. About Iraq and America's plans for same, one might say: We Are Not Leaving. One might say that, as I did a few years ago.
Ventura on The View: If waterboarding is fine, why don’t cops do it? (The Raw Story) Former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura, making a guest appearance on ABC’s The View, gave co-host Elisabeth Hasselbeck a lesson or two about the torture technique known as waterboarding. Ventura, who underwent a barrage of torture techniques at the military Survival, Evade, Resist and Escape (SERE) school, confirmed for Hasselbeck that waterboarding is torture and not just an "enhanced interrogation technique." "If waterboarding is okay, why don't we let our police do it to suspects to learn what they know?" he asked to a chorus of applause.
Click here for more politics and media news headlines.
Carolyn Kay MakeThemAccountable.com
For the correct answer click on "Waking up From the American Dream" above.
William Goldman an extraordinary screenwriter once said about Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything."As a tangential worker in Hollywood for a number of years and a long time observer I find his verdict astoundingly precise. It works when applied to a huge number of situations in Hollywood. The exception being the amazing technicians and wizards of craft that labor behind the scenes. Days of Heaven and Ishtar, 2 famous Hollywood sure bets, in fact flopped, but, by God, they looked good.
Goldman wasn't saying Hollywood is populated by morons. He was saying that the thing that makes the expensive endeavor that is a "Hollywood" movie a "success" is forever elusive. The relentless pursuit of a formula for a "hit" is like mercury, touch it and it moves.
I've come to the conclusion that when Goldman said "Nobody knows anything" he could have been talking about economists. Last year we were not in a recession. Then we were then told it started in January of 2008. Last Summer we were told chances were good we were in a for a "soft landing". This Fall the bottom fell out, but a recovery would surely come at the end of 09. Now it is Spring of 09 and we are told things are looking better - but the recovery is now not on tap until 2010.
Nobody knows anything.
I see no "recovery" at all in the traditional sense. I know. I know. Who am I to make predictions on the economy? After watching one "economist" after another get it ridiculously wrong on national television, why shouldn't I join in? Apparently all it takes to become an "economist" is the ability to speak and play guessing games. I am more than qualified as I can speak, play guessing games and push publish on the blogger "New Post" thingy. Therefore I am an economist.
So with all that fan fare I direct you to my one thought about why we won't be returning to the "good old days" anytime soon.
70% of US GDP is consumer spending. An economy that is based on consumer spending is, in fact, not an economy at all. It is the basis for other countries economies. Further , it is a sink hole dependant on ever expanding lines of credit and the need for us wee folk to forever be debting to purchase more crap we do not need or want. The model of human beings/American citizens, called "consumers" by our good friends the economists, always consuming more as a way of life, thereby propping up the world economy is dying. AS WELL IT SHOULD. And for the record, it is, in the final analysis, an appalling way to live.
Of course, there are solid reasons we are going back to the "Happy Days" of 2005. No one is going want our stinking dollar soon enough, we don't actually make much of anything anyone wants, we owe everyone else a lot of money....and so on... but finally the one reason under girding it all will be a desire - often unconscious - to return to living life on human scale.
I paraphrase from memory what a friend of a friend said last Fall when asked about the market implosion:
Peoples' need for community and a sense of life's worth does not mesh well with the current stock market.
Damn straight.
The attempt to re-inflate the debt bubble and call it a "recovery" is distressing. My guess is it won't work and will prolong the pain.
Then again, I could be wrong. Nobody knows anything.
A few posts ago I said I' be blogging my political evolution right here on the WWW. 2 mornings in a row I did. So here is the third post in that trifecta.
My entire theory about the need for a "3rd way" rests on 2 assumptions.
1. The economy is not going to recover in the usual manner.
2. Obama will slip below 50% approval by years end and stay there. He will not get what he wanted* on the big liberal issues and will be seen by more and more of his base as a disappointment. This will devolve into outright anger in many quarters. The natural size of Obama's "base" is about 20-25% of the population. If the economy continues to falter his "base" will shrink to its natural size - then shrink further as the disappointment sinks in.
* This is predicated on believing that Obama ever truly wanted what he sold last year.
If I am wrong in my "guesses" then this post is nullified. Maybe I am. We will all see.
Projecting forward: I believe a viable 3rd option will become more important than ever in the next few years. The economic "recovery", when it comes, will not look like the ones we are accustomed to. We are in for a long haul readjustment of our expectations. Neither party is prepared for this. However, the far right is positioned to take advantage of large scale social displacement. The far left will try - but fail - as their energies have been subsumed by the President's misdirection. Therefore the GOP is likely to present an uncomfortable but viable option in 2010 and 2012. The moderating influences in the GOP are weak and likely to become weaker as Obama weakens. The Glen Beck boys do not ignore blood in the water. Since my theory assumes Obama will, in essence, fail, any alternative voice within the Democratic party will be tainted and - largely - useless.
This leaves one section of one party standing. The reactionary impulses will be vast as people grapple with a changed landscape . Loud portions of the Democratic party will attempt to take the megaphone. But they will have no choice but to defend Obama in the end. When Obama becomes unpopular anyone remotely connected to him will be on the losing end of any argument. BHO's employees are every bit as tainted as W's. Please read the link. Summers is, for lack of more precise words, a panhandling crook.
So where does this leave "democrats in exile"? Here's where now: The Democratic Party or the GOP. 2008 should be the last time this constricted choice is forced on people.
There is another possibility. Obama will fail on such a catastrophic scale that his own party will dismiss him in 2012. A meteor striking the heartland tomorrow has approximately the same probability.
A "third party" does not top my list of things I'd like to see happen. It is my guess - though its not yet a conviction - thateconomic malaise will open the door WIDE for a slew of unsavory characters on the far left and more probably on the far right. Without an alternative to the soon to be tainted Democrats and the Glen Beck conservatives the energies of the population will have to choose between these unfortunate camps.
"Democrats in exile" (I am avoiding the acronym "P.U.M.A.") are a logical base - to start. As for the comments that insist I should get off my ass and start a third party all I can say is Thanks for the compliment. Even in my most grandiose moments this feels like an absurdity.
However, I will evolve some ideas about what a "third way" might look like in the next week or so. And state without equivocation that I will help should the energies of the immediate aftermath of last May's Obama coup be reignited.
The time to start thinking about stopping the coming right wing backlash is NOW.
Norton dismisses the Constitution: "I don't think members are in the least bit affected in their votes on the question of its constitutionality," she said just last week.
Manning the Barricades: Short form of Economist Intelligence Report on potential social upheaval here. With option to read it all. Thanks to S. in Rapid City for the forward. (My mother's side all hail from the Black Hills...FYI...major soft spot for entire area. )
I (don't) want to live in Chimerica! More on the "not so poor anymore" Chinese, and the "not as rich as we think we are" Americans here.
The Bible contains six admonishments to homosexuals and 362 admonishments to heterosexuals. That doesn't mean that God doesn't love heterosexuals. It's just that they need more supervision.
Lynn Lavner
MUSIC: Go on - lunch (and a few other things) is almost over ...Sing! Dance! Knock something over. Kiss a sexy Puerto Rican!
So I think I'll start the weekend with some miserable predictions from Gerald Celente. Nice, eh? Listen to the string of horrors he has on tap for us. 25% unemployment, civil unrest, food riots. And Ghost Malls. A phrase I find vaguely enticing - entire malls floating around the ether...with obnoxious ghost teens, and ghost early morning jog/walkers - and, of course, ghost Hot Dog on a Stick girls....Plus, as a bonus, Celente calls for the total collapse to occur in 2012. Which, as we know, the Mayans already have dibs on. It dovetails nicely with many a History channel apocalypse special. In a few grimmer moments last year I referred to Chicago Slim as not only the next American President - but the last American President. I'm in a much better mood now...but hey...I accept that the internets are forever - so I am stuck with my doom...
Celente is purported to have called previous crisis correctly. I don't know. I do know that his predictions makes more sense than the massive printing of dollars...at least from out here.
Conversely, things seem a wee bit better now then they were even a few weeks ago. (I judge the economy based on the availability of parking on Larchmont, a little, pricey, ma and pa boutique street in LA good for a bagel and a flirt. If I can park easily things are bad. I had a little trouble Tuesday...)
Also, I keep seeing "Most economics predict that we will come out of recession in late 2009." Based on recent experience "most economists" should not be trusted.
As I go into my day o' no blogging I have a simple question about the economy: Does anyone know what the hell they are doing?
The President goes on talk shows to tell us he's responsible...except not really. 60 Minutes Sunday, a prime time speech next week...for God's sake, Barry...SHUT UP! All this chatter is accentuating the fact that you are in over your head. I know this is hard for you to believe, Mr. Prez, but your presence never actually solved any problem. If you go some place it may well become "Obama country" - but most of us still prefer America.
Showing up is the first thing people do at work - not the only thing.
Bernanke's dollar printing press went berserk this week. (Am I missing something here? He wants rampant inflation, right? Isn't inflation the only way to get us out of debt? - That is since we've decided not to pay it.) What, exactly, will the dollar be worth in 2 years?
A 9.3 trillion dollar deficit is acoming - mostly for projects Obama down played in the election and now most people say they don't want. At least those who know about them. Meanwhile Social Security and Medicare, both programs people do want, are about to go poof!
And that Obama banking plan that is finally breaking the surface,( They were ready on day...65!) is, so far, a ponzi scheme to correct a ponzi scheme. Guess who loses this round? Another trillion clams of magic money later - All of us! Whoo Hoo!
Why the Chinese have not dumped their U.S. dollar holdings so far is beyond me. I would - if I was on their side of this mess.
Well, it is worse than most thought. The economy that is. It is an odd thing being a doomer. It was much more fun when things were about to fail apart - than it is now that things are falling apart. The rat a tat tat of economic doom is wearing me out. For most us - that is those who are not on Wall Street, or in the "think tanks", this period feels like we are in a well furnished, comfortable room and that walls are inching in. Sorry for the exhausted metaphor. It's all I have right now. The room is still comfortable. In fact, it is a little hard to believe danger is so close. But we all know the walls are closing in.
Admittedly, Obama can't win with me. If he's too far Right I call him out. He submits a spending bill - which I should, given my bent, embrace. But it is oddly - too timid. If you're going to cause high inflation, I at least want a job out of it. Nothing done would have been better.
Then he submits a budget that contains programs, elements and impulses I like. It is a "liberal" budget in many ways. (At least as far as I can tell.) Yet, I am left with this: It is a foolish budget for 2009. It is the budget I wish Clinton had submitted in 1997, when things were humming, and he'd returned us to surpluses.
Sadly, it is not 1997. Not even close. It is 2009 and things are bad. Worse than bad, they are rotten. Warren Buffett's mea culpa last week drives the last nail into it. At least for me.
Here is my wish: A leader would come forth knowing and saying that the crash has come. That any pretense that we can return to the 90s or the 50s is now is off the table. A leader willing to say the party is absolutely, completely, 100% over. And then - and only then - speak of hope, and a willingness to see us to the other shore. A leader willing to say- we will be different. We will contract. There will be pain. The expectations routinely fed us by American politicians are false. The American way of life is negotiable. It is being renegotiated right now - by others. We must take back our power but that power can only be based in the truth.
Instead we, with increasing desperation, convince ourselves that this stimulus, or that budget will save us. It won't. At a certain point an alcoholic can control or enjoy his drinking. Not both. If he controls it he does not enjoy it, if he enjoys it he's out of control. My sense is that this is where we are as a nation. We can either control our way of life or we can enjoy it. Not both. Mr. Obama seems determined to insist that we can do both. We will be responsible AND spend money that does not exist. We can inflate this balloon one more time. Sorry again for putting the metaphors in the blender.
Or we can look for another paradigm. I do not have a good one handy. My hunch is the best choice is to relearn what it is a republic looks like. ( This can only start if all elections are publicly financed. Even if a rich person runs.)
We've borrowed our "way of life" since at least 1970. It must end. It is ending. Knowing this is hopeful. I know of no one who cannot live with less. No one. Poverty once defined in this nation by hunger - is now defined by type 2 diabetes. I am for raising taxes on the richest. But not to fund programs that are fast becoming ridiculous.
I know, I know, Obama did say some things about responsibility last Tuesday. But, as he always does, he contradicted himself 2 days later with a budget that stinks of fantasy and delusion. He's the contradiction President. The Great Contradictor. I also know he'd have to ditch most of his campaign promises - and would have gotten endless grief for it, here and elsewhere. But imagine if Obama had spoke about austerity and responsibility on Tuesday and then presented a budget that was responsible and austere on Thursday. That would have been leadership.
As I said, I own that he probably can't win with me. Still, things are moving rapidly.
Liberals won't wake up from their delusions that we can be back in 1997 and spend, spend, spend on programs. A health care system that leaves 40 million (soon to be 50) uninsured does not work. Period. No one wants national health care more than me. I make no apologies for it. The systems in Canada and the UK are not perfect but they are better. I just do not see how this overtly liberal budget from Obama can work in 2009. There are elements that are so far Left that I can only assume he intends to negotiate them away.
Conversely, Conservatives fetishize the "free" market relentlessly. Since 2000 the "free" market has been borrowed. And it has not been free. Conservatives need to own up to this. Borrowing our wealth on the backs of off shored workers, our children, and from the Chinese - is hardly a good system.
A pox on both their houses. I want someone to look me in the eye and tell the truth or something like it. I don't want to be cajoled, massaged, manipulated, or ignored as decisions that affect me are made. Orlov landed it by comparing Obama to Gorbachev. The result was the end of Communist statism. But it has been replaced by 20 years of mob rule. Literally. Americans won't suffer that. We are not made of the same stuff. We'll fight and then break apart.
Yet, it is where we are headed. High government expectations lead by a charismatic, new leader. Followed severe breakdown after the government is shown to be utterly unable to deliver. All because no one said "We're in a whopper of a fix and we must really change, not pretend to."
I could handle that. Most of us could. The saddest thing of all: I believe a woman could deliver the bracing message, and we'd hear it. Call it sexist. Maybe it is. The real chance for change in 2008 was blown.
I want to avoid conspiracy theories. Really, I do. It's no fun wondering about larger patterns most of the time. Otherwise smart and kind people get huffy, dismissive, and condescending when anyone like me even says "conspiracy" in passing. My personal "magic bullet" in these cases is to remember that I have no commitment to the outcome on any given theory. I am just curious.
Therefore I ask: Are people in the highest echelons of this society trying to destroy the economy? Is the national debt so far gone now that the creation of hyperinflation is the only way out?
It looks more and more like the stimulus is an inferno accelerator. TARP 1, TARP 2, stimulus bill and now...whatever comes next...housing bailout? Seizing banks? All would seem to add up to a forced dumping of dollars by foreign governments. The "full faith and credit of the U.S. Government" is becoming painful even to think, much less print.
We are bankrupt. I don't see another way to put it. The credit card is maxed.
I watched the L.A. riots from my window in a sketchy part of Hollywood. It stopped being a "race" riot after a day. For 2 more days it was a purely economic riot. The have nots seized the moment - looting and taking what was otherwise impossible to have.
The membrane between order and chaos is less than razor thin.
So far the economic jolts have been disparate and, for many, still distant. This will change.
I joke a lot. Too much according to some. I also make a point to have boundaries on this blog - and then push them gently. The fact is though, I am scared. This is a normal reaction because, well, things are scary. If you are not at least a little spooked by what is occurring around and underneath the noise of the inauguration - then you are not looking deeply enough. The economic coalmine has becomes a canary graveyard.
Even the least prone to apocalyptic thinking should stiffen the spine a bit when the richest people around are in meltdown preparation mode.
A million jobs lost a month this Spring? A million. This is not a normal downturn.
I must admit that some of my fear springs from ignorance. I simply do not understand the intricacies of what is happening. Wealth that "existed" in August is now gone. Further, everyone talks about the coming federal trillions as if that money exists - and is not a printing press creation. Forgive my thickheadedness - but I still do not understand how the Federal national bailout won't snap back and collapse just like the faux housing wealth just did. Everyone realizes, eventually, that conjured wealth is not real wealth. Unless the coming bailout focuses on real, sustainable initiatives - not bogus road building and tax breaks for companies that have already failed us - how will it help past 2010?
I am an outside observer (far outside). But my sense is that our leadership is still working and thinking in a paradigm that is disappearing. And quickly. The Dem/Obama bailout is an attempt to restart a system that is dead. A return to the economic model of perpetual growth should not be the goal. Indeed, it cannot be.
Since we must obtain our energy resources (the final arbiter of "growth") from elsewhere we are in a no growth position and have been since the 70s. (Go on then, google 'real income'. It stagnates right around the time we had to start importing oil.)
The push for constant growth here depends on bubbles. Tech bubble, housing bubble, etc. Who will underwrite the next bubble? The Fed can't without destroying the currency. (Which it has apparently decided to do.) The Fed has been a triage ala M.A.S.H. since last April when Bear Stearns caved. The Chinese, now industrialized themselves, won't be available.
Still, just as "hope" and "change" were misused to the point of being rendered meaningless in 2008. "Collapse" is becoming the most misused word of 2009. We are not on the verge of "collapse". Yet. (Though, I reserve the right to rethink 'collapse' at any moment.) We are, however, being forced to shrink. The contraction is coming on with breathtaking speed.
This recession is different in substance and tone than any I've seen. Still, much of my fear is not purely economics. Most - but not all - people find a way. My fear goes to societal reaction. What will it take to keep the angry and dislocated in line? Is there a centering idea left in this culture that we might rally around? I am very afraid that there is not. Which leaves a personality to fill the void. We all know how that invariably turns out.
The devil's quadrangle of a psychotic housing bubble, rampant greed on Wall Street, the sale of the national soul to the Chinese, and a consumers gorging on debt isn't the problem! You people who have decided to cook meals at home, forgo another pointless toy, and save some cash are! Phew. Glad that is solved.
If the solution to the incoming Depression is to return to soulless consumerism - then I'll take the Depression.
I will "mad lib" the inauguration. Leading up to it I'll be asking for votes on random words, to be placed randomly in posts on Jan 20th...ala Mad Libs. For fun and for free...first poll below vote as many times as you like.
If anyone can explain to me (feel free to pretend I am a fifth grader) how spending a trillion dollars that does not exist will result in anything but hyperinflation - I would greatly appreciate it. The stimulus/debt bill is being pushed as essential. It may be. I just don't understand how printing or borrowing cash on that scale does not have a major downside.
The cash creates jobs, the workers then spend the earnings, which employs other workers. Good so far.
But the original money came from someone...right? It either came from future Americans or current foreigners...right? Will they require pay back? Or not? Do we have any real obligation regarding this conjured cash? Are there consequences?
I know I am a simpleton on this point. But are we not simply choosing inflation over deflation? I wonder if this is the better bitter pill. I think it is, but I'm nowhere near certain. What bothers me is what appears to be the guiding assumption that we must endeavor to recreate the alleged wealth of days gone by. "Recovery" equates to 1998. Is this a good goal?
We may not need to "downsize" but we do need to "re size". To live in reality. Cheney once quipped that "the American way of life was not negotiable."
Wrong again, Dick.
We either negotiate our "way of life" now, with eyes open, or reality will set the terms.
I am instinctively in favor of Mr. Obama's massive debt bill. I am also clear that it appears to be a gigantic band-aid and not a cure.
James Howard Kunstler is usually worth a read. I say usually because he is prone to allowing his mommy issues to rear up in his weekly essays. Though, never an overt delusional Pod he clearly saw Obama as the best opportunity to defeat Clinton. While dressing up his Hillary hatred as a viewpoint with reasons - it was never more than contempt for her as a powerful woman. The same bile spewed forth toward Palin later- and would have, no doubt, for any woman.
Since my affection toward Hillary occupies a seat opposite Kunstler on the Titanic deck- I am coming to the conclusion that I am glad she lost. Less inclined politically toward Palin or McCain - but still seeing their likability - I'm glad they lost too. I see things as grim as well, though not as grim as Kunstler. Intending to pull for my country in the extraordinarily bad period we are entering, I wish the next President success...of a sort...This is markedly easier since my trust of the man about to take office is south of zero, and I have no emotional bond with him - other than mistrust. I think so little of Obama, he's bound to meet and even surpass my expectations.
The turn of events in Illinois these past 3 weeks do not bode well, however. Obama has exhibited all his worst traits in miniature: knee jerk lies, obstruction, complete ignorance of scandal management, (the scholar didn't learn much from Watergate or Monica.), lack of responsibility, and an inability to lead unless the entire team is singing his tune - which is, of course, not leadership at all. 3 weeks into Senateseat4sale-gate he's not risen above anything. All the media horses and men are trying mightily to pull him out of the muck of his home state - but still, it's sticking. He is now part of the circus. This is because at the core of the media project called Obama is an entitled man in over his head. Not a great statesman or leader. At least not yet. He appears baffled and annoyed that he is even being questioned - however timidly - about Blag and is currently taking cover behind his lawyer, the entire state of Hawaii, and Bushisms. In 2009 the economy is going to be gut wrenching. Call it whatever you like, a depression, a downturn, a bad patch. The sting will be real. I wish I saw the empathy of FDR or the decisiveness of Truman on deck. We need both. I do see a man who has surrounded himself with bureaucrats from another era, gate keepers, and Yes Men. All fine if this economy was in a normal circa 1990 downturn. But we are looking at a complete reboot, which will not be easy. A new normal, very unlike the old normal, is coming.
We need a leader. So far, I just don't see one. Here's to hoping I am wrong.
So pull a tarp up chin high, and read Kunstler. As with all Peak Oilers I find him good on information - but bad on timing. They've predicted correctly that things are falling apart - but seem to be consistently off by a year or two. In 2009 they may have gotten it right.
I think that means that we've been snookered. Or is it a ponzi scheme? One in which most of us have - driven by blind desire to consume more and more- have been unwitting (witless?) participants. As national crisies go I'd say we are in the midst of a CAT 5. (Forgive my maleable use of metaphors - I was stoned during English in high school.Then got a degree in theater - which hardly helped matters.) While not as abrupt as Pearl Harbor or 9/11 the pain will end up worse for the society but of a diffenent nature.
My natural pessimism springs from a desire to be optimistic. While trying to comprhend what is happening in the econmy I keep atempting to see the silver lining without fantisizing.
So far. So bad.
I really DON'T get it. But I'll try: The market has fallen 2000 points since Obama won the election and Paulson handed out billions in mystical money. The "they" that does this stuff is, with ever increasing failure, trying to recreate an economy, that was false to begin with, by dumping mystical currency into the system. Gasoline on fire. As they burn, the pretend dollars being dumped are making the fire brighter and hotter. Sadly, Obama's best and brightest are going to pour more on to the fire. This may work in the short run. Things working in the short run IS the problem in the long run.
(Example: Houses are not falling in value - they were never worth that much to begin with. Anyone with half a brain knew this. But if we've learned anything this year we've learned this - I pray-: Fantasies are powerful. Even so the faux wealth created by the faux value of the real estate did give the illusion of real wealth - in the short run.)
Trillions in conjured "wealth" has evaporated. At some point that wealth butts up against reality. Bluntly put: people lose jobs. A lot of them. We'll be lucky if the unemplyment rate is 10% in a year. I think that is optimistic. Then again, as I've said, I'm no ecnomist - just a guy who feels like he has a front row seat to the end of an era. Pass the popcorn - if we can afford it.
George W Bush and his remaining court jesters are incompetent. (Then again, maybe not - W's cabal will probably survive just fine.) On January 20th, with all sorts of fanfare, Obama and his court get the booby prize.
The silver lining? In 10 years we may land back in a nation that has real wealth based on real labor and real manufacturing-not A.R.M.s and houses used as credit cards. But the capucino liberals and the NASCAR conservatives may not take such a romantic view as things fall apart.
