Today I read Kunstler's Monday post as is my habit. It was, as always, juicy. In it he states:
There is something in the political wind this summer. I think events will force Mr. Obama to assert some real leadership and take the national debate on our predicament in another direction, even if it is an uncomfortable direction for him and everybody else. Despite the massive disappointment being expressed by so many Obama voters these days, I believe the president will redeem himself before long.
There is, at least, something to think about here.
The oddity of Obama is the contradiction between who he claimed to be overtly and covertly last year on the one hand, and the need to please those who paid for his ascendancy on the other. Kunstler's post is a fine example - though I bet he would chafe at the label "true believer". In the post he hammers Obama, then expresses bizarre (and unexamined) faith in him. All the while wondering when the furious masses will give the likes of Goldman Sachs their comeuppance - not seeing or wanting to see the most obvious fact:
Goldman Sachs owns Obama.
The entire point of this blog most days is to point out the basic contradictions of the current President. Among the Obama true believers (that would be the self described progressive left) some have given up on him already. Most are hanging on by their fingernails and ability to absorb or ignore cognitive dissonance.
BUT could Obama "come to" and confront the realities of the fix we are in?
We are in a fix. Agree with Obama's economic policies so far - or don't. Both sides are basing their support or opposition on one assumption: We can return to the credit based model of continuous economic growth like we had in the previous 50 years - and we ought to. Our "way of life", having hit a major pothole, must now be returned to its previous - alleged - splendor.
I do not think this is doable, feasible, or desirable. It was a false economy. Liberal economist Robert Reich sounds vaguely like many a libertarian when he writes in a post called When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.
This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years-featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity...simply cannot be sustained.
Nor should it be. If a "recovery" comes based on banks creating more debt by lending more conjured money into a system already drowning in debt it will only put off the pain for another business cycle. The cold reality is that we, as a nation, have lived beyond our means for a very long time. "Recovering" based on another line of credit is stupid, foolish, and dangerous.
In reality this is not even a discussion about our economy. It is a discussion about our autonomy as a nation. We better notdouble down on the bet that China will continue to underwrite our flat screen TVs and holidays in Cabo without extracting payback.
So is there a summer revelation simmering in the West Wing? If so, what is it? For all my criticism and distrust of Obama if he comes forth and levels with us - telling us the way forward will be difficult and full of sacrifice but we must begin. Further if he holds all those who wrecked the economy to account - including the Goldman boys and Soros's cabal - and all the working stiffs who bought McMansions they could not afford - this will go a very long way to rehabilitating him in my eyes.
What are the chances of this happening?
Just barely this side of zilch.
The persistence of the illusion that we - the people - have any true say in the things that affect us most remains astonishing.
A few posts ago I said I' be blogging my political evolution right here on the WWW. 2 mornings in a row I did. So here is the third post in that trifecta.
My entire theory about the need for a "3rd way" rests on 2 assumptions.
1. The economy is not going to recover in the usual manner.
2. Obama will slip below 50% approval by years end and stay there. He will not get what he wanted* on the big liberal issues and will be seen by more and more of his base as a disappointment. This will devolve into outright anger in many quarters. The natural size of Obama's "base" is about 20-25% of the population. If the economy continues to falter his "base" will shrink to its natural size - then shrink further as the disappointment sinks in.
* This is predicated on believing that Obama ever truly wanted what he sold last year.
If I am wrong in my "guesses" then this post is nullified. Maybe I am. We will all see.
Projecting forward: I believe a viable 3rd option will become more important than ever in the next few years. The economic "recovery", when it comes, will not look like the ones we are accustomed to. We are in for a long haul readjustment of our expectations. Neither party is prepared for this. However, the far right is positioned to take advantage of large scale social displacement. The far left will try - but fail - as their energies have been subsumed by the President's misdirection. Therefore the GOP is likely to present an uncomfortable but viable option in 2010 and 2012. The moderating influences in the GOP are weak and likely to become weaker as Obama weakens. The Glen Beck boys do not ignore blood in the water. Since my theory assumes Obama will, in essence, fail, any alternative voice within the Democratic party will be tainted and - largely - useless.
This leaves one section of one party standing. The reactionary impulses will be vast as people grapple with a changed landscape . Loud portions of the Democratic party will attempt to take the megaphone. But they will have no choice but to defend Obama in the end. When Obama becomes unpopular anyone remotely connected to him will be on the losing end of any argument. BHO's employees are every bit as tainted as W's. Please read the link. Summers is, for lack of more precise words, a panhandling crook.
So where does this leave "democrats in exile"? Here's where now: The Democratic Party or the GOP. 2008 should be the last time this constricted choice is forced on people.
There is another possibility. Obama will fail on such a catastrophic scale that his own party will dismiss him in 2012. A meteor striking the heartland tomorrow has approximately the same probability.
A "third party" does not top my list of things I'd like to see happen. It is my guess - though its not yet a conviction - thateconomic malaise will open the door WIDE for a slew of unsavory characters on the far left and more probably on the far right. Without an alternative to the soon to be tainted Democrats and the Glen Beck conservatives the energies of the population will have to choose between these unfortunate camps.
"Democrats in exile" (I am avoiding the acronym "P.U.M.A.") are a logical base - to start. As for the comments that insist I should get off my ass and start a third party all I can say is Thanks for the compliment. Even in my most grandiose moments this feels like an absurdity.
However, I will evolve some ideas about what a "third way" might look like in the next week or so. And state without equivocation that I will help should the energies of the immediate aftermath of last May's Obama coup be reignited.
The time to start thinking about stopping the coming right wing backlash is NOW.
Conjured money is one of my "go to" snarks. I claim nothing beyond my gut and some real confusion when it comes to economics. Still, from my far window the economic policies of the Obama/Bush team (those who created the problem are still in charge.) appear dangerous to say the least. Does Obama have a plan b? is a legitimate question.
A close friend recently spent the day with a major economist - I am not at liberty to disclose this person's identity - but she revealed that he thinks Obama is doing some the the right things though "It is not enough." and he went on the say that the real problem is China. The Chinese own most of our debt - they have financed us for the last decade. The relationship has been beneficial to them. There will come a time - some say soon - when they will balk at being our credit card. What then? "they are sacrificing so we can indulge"
My perception that Obama's prime directive is to manage America's wane with a minimum of disruption was strengthened this week by his actions and statements in Europe. He is an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks...The errand he was on in Europe was to let the world know that we will behave. The "grocery clerks" are hail from Goldman Sacks...
Going along to get along is how WAPO put it. What's striking about Obama's diplomacy, however, has been his willingness to embrace the priorities of European governments, Russia and China while playing down - or setting aside altogether - principal American concerns. Is the new president shrewd and pragmatic about using his power at home and abroad - or too passive, even weak?
The era of lowers expectations has arrived. How quickly the bar is lowered is the only pertinent question now.
Kunstler's book "The Long Emergency" is a fascinating read. It is about the effects of oil depletion, but reads with the ease and engagement of a great summer, apocalypse novel. I recommend it because, while he is an alarmist, there are times when alarm is the sane and appropriate response.
That's my preface to saying one of Kunstler's biggest contributions is the title. I've been thinking about what the right name for the current era should be. Great Depression 2, and The Great Recession, don't quite fit. Neither reflect enough anxiety. They imply that this is a retread crisis. Something we lived through before as a nation. It's the 70s or the 30s all over again. I am not at all convinced this is true. I can't pinpoint exactly why. My guess: the advent of the culture of entitlement changes the social dynamic drastically.
This entitlement culture is evident in all social strata, from BofA/Merrill Lynch looting tax payer money to single mothers willy nilly bringing 8 children into the world while on the public dole. The biggest sports story in L.A. for the past 2 weeks has been the multi million dollar negotiations between a baseball player and the Dodgers. It is reported with the seriousness of a city wide crisis. Meanwhile, California itself is effectively insolvent. Entitlement has distorted our thinking and priorities beyond recognition.
We've never been so dependent on a vast infrastructure for our survival- while at the same time being utterly disconnected from it. Does anyone, but a precious few, have the foggiest notion how beef gets to the supermarket? Or gas gets to the station? Or drugs get the pharmacy? Mostly on credit, that's how. If credit is the crisis then we are in for many more shocks in the months and years ahead. In other words, The Long Emergency may be here.
We've come to assume that they ways things are are the way they will always be. At the same moment entitlement has overtaken our national psyche. This is a lethal combination.
I have no way of knowing how the economy plays out (I wish mightily I did).Many of those who, a few years ago, screamed in corners - and were ignored - about the coming debacle have been proven mostly correct. Some of these same folks are now intoning about coming social upheaval. As I do with all secular doomsaying I cut the predictions in half and take that as a possibility.
(Doomers not in the grip of a religious dogma can be just as kooky- if not worse - than the Christian Apocaliptos.
Do you like "Apocaliptos"? I do - and I think I just made it up. I am a bit of an Apocalipto, myself.
Apocalipto: One who hasa chronic believe that things are worse than they appear and that the end is near. And is quite possibly hiding under the bed right now. But unlike Luddites and survivalists, an Apocalyptos' pessimism is tempered by whimsy about the whole predicament that is often viewed as cavalier - but is, in fact, a deep, reflexive belief that things work out in the end - even if society collapses, and everyone is reduced to canned Spam, and Bones and South Park no longer exist because TV studios become pasture land...again...)
Major breakdowns in our assumptions are here. Major breakdowns in the social order are a real possibility. We should, at the very least, think current realities through to all possible outcomes. Trust me, some are doing just that. At any rate, entitlement will have to be unlearned.
I believe anxiety will be at the core of our lives for the next few years. Adjusting to this long emergency must begin...yesterday.
Peak oilers have been a favorite "go to" bunch for me. The basic theory being that the world is peaking in oil production and the downward slope is coming - or already here. This will produce chaos as the world as we know it is predicated on oil. This world will end, producing winners and losers galore along the way.
Plenty of smart people believe this - and I am not in a position to doubt them. I DO doubt them here and there but only because doubting is a good habit to nurture.
Whether or not the Peak Oil crowd is precisely correct was always less interesting to me than the context of the theory. Peak oil theory filled in gaps left, well...gaping... as I watched the Cheney/Bush Administration years unfold. The Iraq invasion makes sense geopolitically when one absorbs the potential reality of oil depletion, and the natural competition with China and others for the oil that's left. Of course, other reasons also make some sense, just not enough to warrant the scale of the war. We are there so that the Chinese are not, to simplify things brutally.
Mr. Cheney said "The American way of life is not negotiable." This statement being his decades late response to Carter's attempt to warn us about energy in the 70s. Cheney, we can observe now, meant what he said and backed it up.
At any rate, Mr. Obama has back loaded our withdrawl (changing his stance on Iraq, yet again). 50,000 troops will be there until the end of 2011. This makes his plan no different than Bush's. If the country continues to settle down, 50,000 is plenty if the prime objective is protection of the oil trade. If those 50,000 are withdrawn in December of 2011, I will, as they say, eat crow. Until then the Bush/Cheney/Obama plan is going exactly as planned. The Obama "leg" of said plan being focused on controlling Afghanistan.
Now the price of oil has collapsed. So where does this leave the "peak" crowd? On the face of it: It leaves them being wrong. This I tend to doubt. Gold and oil may be the only good bets out there right now.
The "growth" here is based on oil. When "oil growth" stopped (and viable light crude did essentially STOP being discovered decades ago.) a system of conjuring wealth based on credit went into to full swing. This hallucinated wealth gave us the economy that is now in a nose dive.
So what about oil? Last summer $147 per barrel, $40 today. What to make of it? The geology of oil has not changed. No new big fields have been discovered. What has changed is that the hallucinated economy ended rather abruptly on September 15th when Lehman Brothers caved in...taking billions of "petro" dollars with it.
The frantic attempts to save AIG and the big banks is an attempt to restore credit - not reality.
This assessment could be off. Yet, I find no other context in which these events make sense. I'd like to. Badly.
"Capitalism is dying!" is being yelled from the rooftops hither and thither. That simply is not true. The credit based economy is dying. The false concept that one can create sustained wealth divorced from energy reality is dying. Globalization is dying. The economy does not use energy. Energy is the economy. It is what we produce with, how we eat, and how we move.
Those creative types that "make a better mousetrap" will still be around when the dust clears. And might actually garner some of the respect now lathered on NBA stars and dime a dozen actors. Entrepreneurs will find a way in the real economy or, barring the advent of one, the black market.
As has been my theme of late, I say Let the credit based hallucination die. Much of our pain has come and will continue coming - in the vain attempt to re-create the hallucination recently ended.
Obama gets no love from me. But he is in a near impossible situation. He is beholden to the people least likely or able to accept a new order, and he promised the moon to the rest of us.
Oops.
Finally for tonight, when the end of credit plays out in the farm belt, the men, as they also say, will be separated from the boys. I predict "going local" will be forced on us within a year or two.
