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Monday, July 20, 2009

Back to earth

Cross posted at Mule Kick

According to the USA Today/Gallup Obama now stands at 55% overall approval. Placing him tenth among the 12 post WW2 Presidents at this point in their administrations. Given that he won election with 53% of the vote - a 55% percent approval is a clear indicator that the dust has settled.

WaPo/ABC also have a poll out today. In it BHO has a 59% overall approval. Still high, but down 6 points in a month.

Both polls confirm movement that has been evident for a while. Independents are increasingly skittish, any residual GOP goodwill has vanished and Democrats still largely support the President. His marks on the economy and health care are down substantially. Numbers on the economy are always the most malleable. Regardless of what he does - if the economy turns around so will Obama's numbers.

The most interesting divide is in the WaPo/ABC poll regarding health care:

Beyond partisan shifts in Obama's ratings, sharp declines have occurred among those with household incomes above $50,000. And those with incomes above $50,000 now are split evenly between Obama and Republicans on dealing with health care. In June, they favored Obama by a 21-point margin.

Emphasis mine.

That is a cratering in support from a key group on a key issue. Given that any proposal will most likely include higher taxes for those in upper income brackets, this nosedive on health care could easily spread to other issues. In those numbers the seedlings for any future Obama troubles will sprout.

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