2012: The Obama Cult vs. the Wing Nuts?
A few posts ago I said I' be blogging my political evolution right here on the WWW. 2 mornings in a row I did. So here is the third post in that trifecta.
My entire theory about the need for a "3rd way" rests on 2 assumptions.
1. The economy is not going to recover in the usual manner.
2. Obama will slip below 50% approval by years end and stay there. He will not get what he wanted* on the big liberal issues and will be seen by more and more of his base as a disappointment. This will devolve into outright anger in many quarters. The natural size of Obama's "base" is about 20-25% of the population. If the economy continues to falter his "base" will shrink to its natural size - then shrink further as the disappointment sinks in.
* This is predicated on believing that Obama ever truly wanted what he sold last year.
If I am wrong in my "guesses" then this post is nullified. Maybe I am. We will all see.
Projecting forward: I believe a viable 3rd option will become more important than ever in the next few years. The economic "recovery", when it comes, will not look like the ones we are accustomed to. We are in for a long haul readjustment of our expectations. Neither party is prepared for this. However, the far right is positioned to take advantage of large scale social displacement. The far left will try - but fail - as their energies have been subsumed by the President's misdirection. Therefore the GOP is likely to present an uncomfortable but viable option in 2010 and 2012. The moderating influences in the GOP are weak and likely to become weaker as Obama weakens. The Glen Beck boys do not ignore blood in the water. Since my theory assumes Obama will, in essence, fail, any alternative voice within the Democratic party will be tainted and - largely - useless.
This leaves one section of one party standing. The reactionary impulses will be vast as people grapple with a changed landscape . Loud portions of the Democratic party will attempt to take the megaphone. But they will have no choice but to defend Obama in the end. When Obama becomes unpopular anyone remotely connected to him will be on the losing end of any argument. BHO's employees are every bit as tainted as W's. Please read the link. Summers is, for lack of more precise words, a panhandling crook.
So where does this leave "democrats in exile"? Here's where now: The Democratic Party or the GOP. 2008 should be the last time this constricted choice is forced on people.
There is another possibility. Obama will fail on such a catastrophic scale that his own party will dismiss him in 2012. A meteor striking the heartland tomorrow has approximately the same probability.
A "third party" does not top my list of things I'd like to see happen. It is my guess - though its not yet a conviction - that economic malaise will open the door WIDE for a slew of unsavory characters on the far left and more probably on the far right. Without an alternative to the soon to be tainted Democrats and the Glen Beck conservatives the energies of the population will have to choose between these unfortunate camps.
"Democrats in exile" (I am avoiding the acronym "P.U.M.A.") are a logical base - to start. As for the comments that insist I should get off my ass and start a third party all I can say is Thanks for the compliment. Even in my most grandiose moments this feels like an absurdity.
However, I will evolve some ideas about what a "third way" might look like in the next week or so. And state without equivocation that I will help should the energies of the immediate aftermath of last May's Obama coup be reignited.
The time to start thinking about stopping the coming right wing backlash is NOW.
My entire theory about the need for a "3rd way" rests on 2 assumptions.
1. The economy is not going to recover in the usual manner.
2. Obama will slip below 50% approval by years end and stay there. He will not get what he wanted* on the big liberal issues and will be seen by more and more of his base as a disappointment. This will devolve into outright anger in many quarters. The natural size of Obama's "base" is about 20-25% of the population. If the economy continues to falter his "base" will shrink to its natural size - then shrink further as the disappointment sinks in.
* This is predicated on believing that Obama ever truly wanted what he sold last year.
If I am wrong in my "guesses" then this post is nullified. Maybe I am. We will all see.
Projecting forward: I believe a viable 3rd option will become more important than ever in the next few years. The economic "recovery", when it comes, will not look like the ones we are accustomed to. We are in for a long haul readjustment of our expectations. Neither party is prepared for this. However, the far right is positioned to take advantage of large scale social displacement. The far left will try - but fail - as their energies have been subsumed by the President's misdirection. Therefore the GOP is likely to present an uncomfortable but viable option in 2010 and 2012. The moderating influences in the GOP are weak and likely to become weaker as Obama weakens. The Glen Beck boys do not ignore blood in the water. Since my theory assumes Obama will, in essence, fail, any alternative voice within the Democratic party will be tainted and - largely - useless.
This leaves one section of one party standing. The reactionary impulses will be vast as people grapple with a changed landscape . Loud portions of the Democratic party will attempt to take the megaphone. But they will have no choice but to defend Obama in the end. When Obama becomes unpopular anyone remotely connected to him will be on the losing end of any argument. BHO's employees are every bit as tainted as W's. Please read the link. Summers is, for lack of more precise words, a panhandling crook.
So where does this leave "democrats in exile"? Here's where now: The Democratic Party or the GOP. 2008 should be the last time this constricted choice is forced on people.
There is another possibility. Obama will fail on such a catastrophic scale that his own party will dismiss him in 2012. A meteor striking the heartland tomorrow has approximately the same probability.
A "third party" does not top my list of things I'd like to see happen. It is my guess - though its not yet a conviction - that economic malaise will open the door WIDE for a slew of unsavory characters on the far left and more probably on the far right. Without an alternative to the soon to be tainted Democrats and the Glen Beck conservatives the energies of the population will have to choose between these unfortunate camps.
"Democrats in exile" (I am avoiding the acronym "P.U.M.A.") are a logical base - to start. As for the comments that insist I should get off my ass and start a third party all I can say is Thanks for the compliment. Even in my most grandiose moments this feels like an absurdity.
However, I will evolve some ideas about what a "third way" might look like in the next week or so. And state without equivocation that I will help should the energies of the immediate aftermath of last May's Obama coup be reignited.
The time to start thinking about stopping the coming right wing backlash is NOW.
Labels: credit based economy, Democratic party, economy, far right wing, GOP, obama cult, party, resist, third party, wingnuts
posted by John Smart at
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
PERMALINK
