Strictly for the sake of my ego I don't want him to sink below 50% until September as that is when I predicted it would happen. He'll be doing a eulogy for Senator Kennedy on Saturday. At the risk of being a bit gross let me say: I think he'll get a little bounce.
The first day after Kennedy's death was about the man. Today it is about the end of an era. (Which for many of us, including me, it is.) A sad finality does accompany the last Kennedy brother's passing. And the media is playing up this angle. Obama does well in moments like this. He'll try like the dickens to pick up the vigor baton. I assume he'll be successful enough to get a few points back in opinion polls. His skill set it perfect for moments like this.
But it shall not last. Obama is now set to have the third biggest drop off in support of any post war President. Only Ford, who pardoned Nixon causing nationwide disgust, and Clinton who won with only 43%, fell further quicker.
According to RCP's average of major polls Obama's job approval now stands at 52%. It's been a on slow, downward slope since March.
Given that he was elected with 54% of the vote, and given that Americans, being fair minded with new employees, like to give their President's a honeymoon, I originally predicted that Obama would fall below 50% in June. Sometime in March or so I amended my prediction to September, which I'll stick with. I love to give a political prognosis. But I'm queasy about direct predictions and attempt to avoid them unless they're irresistibly obvious and my ego wants on the "told ya so" bandwagon.
This leaves room for:
A. Surprises. Bush was drifting lower and lower in the polls in August of 2001...and then... B. The fact that I am not, and have no interest in being, a soothsayer. C. A big, bellowing "No thanks!" when the crow gets passed my way. D. Surprises. Leaders can surprise. Things change. Sometimes for the better. After a bad first year in the polls Clinton retrenched and 7 years later left office with remarkably high approval ratings.
Few circumstance can push Obama's numbers back upward in the next 6 weeks. Arrogance and inexperience have boxed him in on health care. Perhaps for the first time in his political career when he's having to pay for his arrogance and inexperience in the public arena.
I've made a prediction. I want to have some fun with it. On my Obama approval number prediction - let me tighten my own noose:
Obama's approval will fall below 50% in September. That means - he will be below 50% in RCP's average of the polls for 14 consecutive days. The days cannot start before Sept. 1 and end after Sept. 30. If he falls below 50% in August it doesn't count until September. Conversely, if he sinks below 50% on September 20 and stays there until the 30th - I will also count myself incorrect.
Now you - predict where Obama will be in the RCP average on one day - September 30.
According to the USA Today/Gallup Obama now stands at 55% overall approval. Placing him tenth among the 12 post WW2 Presidents at this point in their administrations. Given that he won election with 53% of the vote - a 55% percent approval is a clear indicator that the dust has settled.
Both polls confirm movement that has been evident for a while. Independents are increasingly skittish, any residual GOP goodwill has vanished and Democrats still largely support the President. His marks on the economy and health care are down substantially. Numbers on the economy are always the most malleable. Regardless of what he does - if the economy turns around so will Obama's numbers.
The most interesting divide is in the WaPo/ABC poll regarding health care:
Beyond partisan shifts in Obama's ratings, sharp declines have occurred among those with household incomes above $50,000. And those with incomes above $50,000 now are split evenly between Obama and Republicans on dealing with health care. In June, they favored Obama by a 21-point margin.
Emphasis mine.
That is a cratering in support from a key group on a key issue. Given that any proposal will most likely include higher taxes for those in upper income brackets, this nosedive on health care could easily spread to other issues. In those numbers the seedlings for any future Obama troubles will sprout.
Please click on chart to enlarge. I got it from Cannonfire.
The latest polls on BHO indicate he is losing some steam. I should hope this surprises no one. He is below 60% on job performance mostly because of the deficit and because he's at all time lows among Republicans ( again, no surprise there) and independents where he lands in the low 50s. If independent voters keep slipping - or slinking - away Obama will be okay for a bit but Dems in general better watch their backs. 2010 is much closer than 2012 and even a minor GOP rebound does the tenuous (and often mysterious) Obama agenda harm.
Believe it or not the news is bad for anyone who wants health care reform soon. Obama is drifting lower because Americans have less faith that government can solve problems now than even a few months ago. This spells trouble for the public option. The GOP will exploit the usual cavalcade of lies whenever Big Money might - just might - sustain even a minor hit for the good of the majority.
Some lies a coming:
-You won't get to chose your doctor- false AND this really only matters to upper and upper middle class folks anyway. Working stiffs want to know their doctor is competent and don't care if he/she is charming and nice. On my current plan my choices are already limited. I used it recently to see a dermatologist for flea bites I thought were something more grave. He chortled, showed me his flea bites, told me fog my place, "Advantage" Bob Barker and prescribed some lotion. I didn't need to establish a relationship with him or be his pal. I needed him to know his job. That's it. The same holds true for all doctors. Dr. Smith is just fine if Dr. Jones's services mean you lose your house. "No choice of doctors" is the strawiest of strawmen. Most people don't want to choose the doctor they see so much as they want to know they can choose to see a doctor.
- The public option will destroy private insurance. Again, false. There are public options through out the American economy and the private competition does just fine - in fact they often are forced to do better. Insurance companies should be forced to compete fiercely. This is about health not mousetraps or cars. Private insurers ought to provide a better product. As it stands now they engage in a kind of blackmail because no one has called them out and there is, in effect, no real competition.
- We can't afford it. True enough. But take away 2% of the Pentagon's budget and we've got a fine start on health care for all. The U.S. military accounts for 50% of the world's expenditure on defense. WTF? Yet 50 million have emergency rooms as there "chosen" doctor. This is not about affordability so much as priorities. We can't afford not to find the money. The system as it exists now has caused a 40% rise in medical costs in 9 years. 40%. Meanwhile the "evil" socialized medicare system has seen costs rise 3% during the same period. Insanity vs. Sanity.
- Health care will be rationed...yeah...so? Health care is ALREADY RATIONED. 30 million get the best on the planet, 120 million or so get some, and 50 million hold on tight and hope they stay healthy. Watching GOP Senators who get the best health care imaginable - on our dime - froth about rationing makes me...well...sick. Remove even part of their benefit package and I wonder how quickly real reform would pass?
We all don't need Gregory House when we break a bone or are afflicted with some disease. We need care. Care that doesn't destroy us financially. We can afford it.
The public option is a pathetic replacement for single payer - but it is the only replacement "on the table." Without it there is no reason to bother with a health care bill. What we will get sans the public option is mandated purchases of BIG INSURANCE with nominal penalties for those who don't. In other words: We will go from an unfair system that values the corporate bottom line over individual health to an unfair system YOU MUST BUY into.
Talk about a cash cow. Talk about a redistribution of wealth.
The sad thing here is that I am no guessing it is an even bet Obama will flinch on the public option. He loves being loved too much and the Mega Insurance noise machine will be ramped up big time. The last Obama promise I had some hope for might be gone by August. Polls already indicate that the Big Corporate Insurance Cabal will win the day.
As we round the bend to the 100 days mark expect another hullabaloo from the premiere astro turfing machine the world has ever seen: The Obamamedia.
Apparently he'll have another press conference to mark the longest period he's ever worked consecutively - 100 days - in which we will learn much about credit cards read from a TelePrompTer. CNN, The LA and NY Times and most especially MSNBC will froth about how popular he is.
Don't believe it. He hovers around 60% which is utterly unremarkable and places him even with George W Bush and behind Nixon. He is below average based on polling done since Eisenhower, and way, WAY behind JFK.
Obama does come in first place in one category: He is the most polarizing President in memory. Perhaps since Lincoln. From RCP : The polarized view of Obama would hardly be notable if not for the tenor of Obama's candidacy...Transcending the two tribes of Washington was the nucleus of Obama's campaign.
But hey, 40% of the population, including Black conservatives, must be racist.
The noise will be ramped up again by the boot licking Obamamedia. Statements about his "popularity" will be yelped - with no context - relentlessly
I am still keeping to my revised guess that he falls below fifty percent in September.
Norton dismisses the Constitution: "I don't think members are in the least bit affected in their votes on the question of its constitutionality," she said just last week.
Nigerian Inheritance: Below is an email I got from the "FBI" this morning. Those kooks at the FBI aren't like Scully, Moulder, or Seely Booth at ALL! I am very disappointed. Anti-Terrorist and Monitory Crimes Division. Federal Bureau Of Investigation. J. Edgar. Hoover Building, Washington, DC USA.
ATTN: BENEFICIARY
This is to Officially inform you that it has come to our notice and we have thoroughly completed an Investigated with the help of our Intelligence Monitoring Network System that you are having an illegal transaction with Impostors claiming to be Prof. Charles C. Soludo of the Central Bank Of Nigeria, Mr. Patrick Aziza, Mr Frank Nweke, none officials of Oceanic Bank, none officials of Zenith Bank and some impostors claiming to be the Federal Bureau Of Investigation agents. During our Investigation, it came to our notice that... So therefore, we have contacted the Federal Ministry Of Finance on your behalf and they have brought a solution to your problem by coordinating your payment in the total amount of $800,000.00 USD which will be deposited into an ATM CARD...Since the Federal Bureau of Investigation has been involved in this transaction, you are now to be rest assured that this transaction...We have confirmed that the amount required to procure the Approval Slip will cost you a total of $200 USD....
Obama needs Clinton. At least 25% of Democrats have been telling pollsters for months that they are not coming back. That's where it stands on August 1st. The goons at Kos can scream "we don't need 'em" all they want. They are wrong.
I am queasy about polls - they go up and down and all around. However, what I find interesting as hell about the most recent polls is BHO's decline -not that he has declined - but when he's declined. It is not hard to deduce Obama's numbers would fall in polls. But why now? He looks worse the more one looks. That much seems clear. I believe it is only close now because so many find another GOP admin impossible to stomach. Every one thinks Obama should be up 10 points. I think McCain should be - but McCain has to drag the cadaver of the GOP around whether he likes it or not.
Obama faded at the end of the primaries. Viewing things from a distance and it is clear he's been fading for a while. It is normal for the non front runner to pick off a big state here and there after things should be settled. Jackson won a few late in 1988. If memory serves Jerry Brown did too. On the other hand Hillary Clinton won all the big states from March on except North Carolina.
The "bump" after Clinton suspended her campaign was anemic. A few outlying polls had Obama up by the percentage one would expect. Overall he has maintained a 5 point lead - until - and this is what I find intriguing - until he went on the magical mystery tour. Now the race appears even. Why?
That trip did damage to Obama. It confirmed an underlying assumption that many have about him: He's a calculated, self serving politician. He went to Iraq when it would serve him - or so he thought. That trip should have him up 12 points. What Obama has done in the polls all week is fade. When they announced it, I thought moving the acceptance speech to a football stadium had a 50/50 chance of turning people off. I put it now at 70/30. It reads as arrogance. The Berlin stunt turned people off.
Playing the race card has hurt him more.
With Clinton on the ticket he gains 8 points overnight. It is hard to argue with that. It makes the convention much less confrontational. It brings women over 40 back into the fold (they are breaking for McCain now). No Democrat understands what the fall campaign will be about more than Hillary. Hillary can also salvage a few states Obama may well lose to a McCain/ Romeny ticket. (Ohio, Massachusetts, Michigan - yes Obama could lose Mass. and Michigan to a McCain/Romeny ticket). Obama is going to be drilled hard in the Fall. What we have learned is that he is not experienced enough to handle a campaign that is not on his terms all the time. Too much has been handed to him. There is ample evidence that unless Obama gets a lot of help gaming elections - he flails.
If Obama continues to slip he'd better look at Clinton as Veep. Polls are odd, though. The Olympics may do Obama a favor by getting him off the stage for a while. Obama fatigue is setting in and the guy isn't even the nominee yet.
The 24 hour Obama news channels are doing him no favors - even if the coverage is adoring. People want competent administrations in the end - not rock concerts. Clinton is the poster girl for competent. All Obama's slip sliding to the center is easily managed by Clinton -since she is already there. Obama alone is "change". Obama/Clinton is "competent change".
The downside for her on the ticket is small. She can survive - and thrive - with what will be thrown at Obama. Should they win there will be learning on the job in the oval office - but no one will question the qualifications of the Vice President. Hillary knows how the White House goes. If Obama loses she is set for 2012. Obama will be held responsible for the loss. Not Hillary. Dean and Brazille will be thrown to the wolves by then.
Of course, the absurdity of having the less qualified person on the top of an Obama/Clinton ticket will have to be dealt with. But there is plenty of precedent.
Mostly, an Obama/Clinton ticket gives me pause. I don't know that I have it in me to vote against any Clinton at any time. The Clinton's saved the Democratic Party after 12 years of GOP rule. They lead the only 2 term Democratic administration in 60 years. Bill and Hillary Clinton remains the one true voice to most of the real Democratic base. All the large Dem state wins by Hil prove that.
BHO's trip to Afghanistan is a joke. Why? He has done nothing in the U.S. Senate regarding Afghanistan - check it out.
This is were your donations are going, Pods - gigantic photo ops.
Jetsam:
Do the clowns at the network news organizations, Newsweek and Time metaphorically masturbate while thinking about how they will fluff Obama next- or do they - in reality - pleasure themselves?
Covering all bases the new force composed of lunatic college kids and unemployable Berkeley hippies will wear brown shirts and carry a little red book.
Further proof the media is rotten to the core: Polls - Monday BHO had run up a 10 point lead in the Gallup tracking poll. The media went goo goo ga ga. Today that same poll has collapsed back, Obama leads by three. Rassmussen has Clinton ahead. The media is silent about this.
The race has tightened in Pennsylvania. Sort of. Clinton still leads substantially in all but one odd poll. The headline is "Obama catching up". Not in the headline is the new Indiana poll Clinton 52, BHO 43. She leads by 9 in BHO's neighbor state.
Further: Clinton beats McCain now in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, by 2, 9, and 8% respectively. Obama loses to McCain in the same 3 states by 9, 8, and 11%. Odd, that for all the bad, wise cracking press on Clinton in the past few weeks she has pull ahead of McCain in these three big states.
As we have been saying all along Obama is the weaker general election candidate. General elections are chosen by states not the general population. A democrat who loses Pennsylvania cannot win a general election. Period.
Poor Barry Hussein Obama. The "story" of "God Damn America" minister has upset him. Anderson Cooper got an "exclusive" ass kissing with Obama so BHO could whine about the "story". Not the bigot minister, mind you. He is not the problem. The problem is the story. Cooper, when's he not walking in and out of various closets, or at Gold's gym in Hollywood, can be seen on CNN pretending to be a journalist. It is unclear if the actual "kissing of Obama's ass" ceremony took place before or after the interview. Obama may have been tired from the long hours of Keith Olbermann kissing his ass. Frank Rich and Maureen Dowd have also insisted on more "OAK" sessions of late. (Obama Ass Kissing).
OBAMA CHOSE THIS CHURCH FOR 20 YEARS. That's all the matters here folks.
