If you are in a certain type of gloomy, doomy morning mood you will get off on what is linked here. (pdf), the "web bot" predictions for 2009. The web bot computer program predicts future events based on the use of language on the internet. The 2 men behind this say they have correctly predicted major events including 9/11, the '04 tsunami, and the 2008 financial meltdown. I have not found any proof otherwise, but I have not looked hard for any. They did predict a pandemic in 2009 - though they stated it would be in the Fall. The concept itself is fascinating. I believe in Jung's collective unconscious. Therefore I assume one could make reasonably accurate guesses of future human caused events based on what a goodly chunk of us have on our minds consistently. Predicting earthquakes and such...not so sure...but, again, why not? Intuition is powerful stuff - probably hardwired after millions of years of evolution.
And, as we all know, the world does not end until December 21, 2012, (around 3pm Pacific Standard Time - ruining the last episodes of both Oprah and Judge Judy.) So we still have some time for distractions such as the Web Bots.
The most intriguing predictions for 09? The "summer of hell", "global coastal events" in May - that would be tomorrow, the decline of the markets through Feb 09 - they were correct here, the destruction of the U.S. dollar. There are even worse tidings in the report. (I make few predictions myself, as my ego is too tender. I called the election for Obama in early October but that was not exactlypsychic.)
The web bots are certainly more reality based than Nostradamus, and probably have a better record of correct prediction than nearly all mainstream economists.
I am in a mood. Network was released in 1976. That fact is astounding.The speech in the first clip below should be forced viewing for anyone under thirty. A sort of RE reeducation camp. Howard Beale could be talking about the 2008 election.
Is there anything that Paddy Chayefsky wrote in 1975 in the first 2 minutes of Beale's speech in this clip that is not specifically about 2009? Not generally. Specifically.
Finally, just because Beatrice Straight is perfect in the 4 minute clip below. She won an Oscar for it - an Oscar she more than earns in 4 minutes.
Things are rotten. We are entering 2009 in bad shape. Don't kid yourself. The economy is a cornered animal. President elect Sunshine is proposing a gargantuan increase in the national debt in the form of tax cuts and spending. He'll get it. Like the financial bailout, which failed, and the auto bailout, which will fail - this will be sold as a "we have no choice" bill. And it may seem true. Actually, I am not opposed to this mind numbing debt bill. The 2 alternatives are worse or impossible.
A worse choice is to avoid conjuring more faux wealth and let the economy collapse completely. The social disruption would be immediate and severe. So Obama is proposing a rear guard, delaying action and plastering is over with a prayer. It may work for a while. But inflation will come. And it will be brutal. The Obama debt bill is all about pretending we can return to the kind of prosperity we've come to believe is a birthright. We can't.
The impossible choice - so it would seem - is for America to suddenly wake up and realize the party is over, go along with the contraction, stop depending on bubbles to create fleeting wealth, and generally live within our means. Not gonna happen.
The foreign policy front is as bad - though we might see it clearly yet. The Russia/Ukraine fight over energy will spill over soon. Russia is in trouble - which means we are in trouble. Gaza may be a relatively minor problem in short order. But it is a problem. Obama's standing in 1/4 of the world is already in free fall. One war is going to expanded and another will limp along.
There is a reason why Obama has allowed Senator Clinton to create what amounts to a "foreign policy Presidency" with the incoming State Department while he vacationed. He needs her to. We have elected a man with next to no experience. Fanciful comparisons aside, we've never really done this before. Lincoln does come closest to being an apt comparison. But I know of no one who wants to relive 1860-64. Besides, Obama has shown none of the intellectual power of Lincoln. Lincoln risked his career and life at least twice - opposing the Mexican war and secession. Obama has never risked so much as the wrath of his wife.
He has been moderately savvy in his picks. Change is not the watchword, however. He has opted for a more intelligent version of the status quo.
No matter what, the buck stops in the oval office. W gave lip service to this adage - but is a failure because he and his peeps were forever passing the buck - and continue to at this late date.
No one, other than the most ardent Obamatons, will allow him to skate. The country is sick of false leadership and expects Obama to be the real deal. He'd better be.
When things go south, blaming Hillary will get some press. But the law of diminishing returns has set in on this front. Recent history suggests that if Obama tanks, the Clintons will remain standing - somehow. They remain the one couple that can steal the spotlight. A cautious, please everyone, President without a candidate Clinton or Palin to rough up, stands little chance. Nor does intellect trump muscle in a dangerous world. The 24 hour media is merciless and the strain is already - or rather, finally - showing.
Clinton's stature grew all year. Obama's flatlined in April and it took a massive shove from the DNC and the media to get him over the top in August and a financial meltdown in October to the finish line. A good transition has been helpful. But it has also raised expectations to an absurd level.
As a political observer, I admire many of Obama's picks. It seems Obama understood better than the rest of us that "Change" was a powerful slogan and nothing else. I can't think of one appointment that suggests real change. Many are, however, powerful insiders. They will get something done. It just won't be new.
As a man with political opinions - Obama's picks are hilarious. The American Left has been left out in the cold. My politics aside, I take deep satisfaction in how much the alleged Left has been ditched. There will be no liberal administration. American Progressives, after a smug moment on 1/20, please retreat to your corners and continue whining.
I also don't expect the "Thank God Bush is gone" meme to last long. Bush has been gone for a while.
First off - Congrats to the Trojans! The need for a playoff in college football is once again achingly clear. The system now encourages scheduling weak opponents, running up scores, and flattens the season - removing the crescendo of end of season rivalries.
BCS proponents call this "Making every game matter!" Well, every game shouldn't "matter". Real fans know that Ohio State- Michigan matters more than Ohio State - Youngstown....regardless of the year. Winning the conference should matter more than some off game in late august a talented team choked in. The BCS is slowly flattening college football, all for the sake of gaylord hotel papa mama mia pizza motor credit union emerald nut bowl system.
The BCS punishes team improvement.
USC deserves a real shot at the title.
16 teams. 4 weeks in December. Holiday football madness!
My predictions for 2009. I hope fervently I am wrong on numbers 2 and 5.
1. Obama will remain popular through June. Meaning he will stay above 50% in polls. By the Fall he will be wearing thin. Perceptions of him will change from "refreshing" to "arrogant" for the general population as it becomes clear his power to fix the economy is limited.
2. The economy will limp and fade, limp some more and fade further. Official unemployment numbers will go into double digits this year.
3. The war in Afghanistan will be expanded by Obama, causing heads to explode on the Obama Left.
4. Obama blogs will continue cheer leading - but their audiences will drop off as it becomes inescapable to avoid that the most delusional were duped.
5. There will be a terror attack on American soil.
6. The inflation/deflation argument is beyond my pay grade. I have no idea which will present itself with force. But one will. I am leaning toward inflation now.
7. The media's infatuation with Obama will fade sharply over the course of the next 3 months. The snide cabal of columnists at the NYTs will kick things off. His admin. won't be open in any real sense. Just more open than W's - which isn't saying much. Though the media has been mindlessly in love with Obama, he has never returned the sentiment. This is already dawning on the MSM. As BHO's defensiveness and annoyance becomes more evident - they'll turn. Proviso: If the GOP continues to produce a series of fools and clowns as it did in 07 and some of 08 it will buy Obama more media cuddle time.
8. Hillary Clinton will find the world left by W and Rice nearly impossible to deal with. But she'll perform her duties well. The media will do its damnedest to pick her apart.
9. The Gay Rights movement will finally grow up and move into its nonviolent civil disobedience phase.
love you all. No posts after this until Friday. Happy New Year!
Face forward! Eyes open! Onward to 2009! Hallelujah Here is the song I've been trying to learn on guitar. It is hard. I took up classical guitar a while ago because I wanted to stretch my brain and I hate crossword puzzles. Also guitar is sexy and we middle aged types must get inventive with seduction....lol, as the kids say...
Gavin Newsom is exploring a run for Governor of Calif. I like Gavin Newsom. Mayor Newsom courageously struck a blow for equal and human rights by allowing gay and lesbian Americans to marry in San Francisco. Barack the Coward refused to be photographed with him. Sometimes Obama makes his sneaky, contemptible, fraudulent career so very easy to loath. (L.R. would not be L.R. without one last backhand to Barry O. in 2008. Prediction: Busting Obama's chops and pointing and laughing at Obama Pods will become a growth industry sometime in the July-September window.)
Bubble discusses the new year. Still funny after 15 years.
Photo below can used to respond to nonsense emails from an ex or in-laws or Code Pink: Does anyone know who made this photo?
Finally listen to Ana Vidovic and have a wonderful night!
