Nobody Knows Anything

William Goldman an extraordinary screenwriter once said about Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything."As a tangential worker in Hollywood for a number of years and a long time observer I find his verdict astoundingly precise. It works when applied to a huge number of situations in Hollywood. The exception being the amazing technicians and wizards of craft that labor behind the scenes. Days of Heaven and Ishtar, 2 famous Hollywood sure bets, in fact flopped, but, by God, they looked good.

Goldman wasn't saying Hollywood is populated by morons. He was saying that the thing that makes the expensive endeavor that is a "Hollywood" movie a "success" is forever elusive. The relentless pursuit of a formula for a "hit" is like mercury, touch it and it moves.

I've come to the conclusion that when Goldman said "Nobody knows anything" he could have been talking about economists. Last year we were not in a recession. Then we were then told it started in January of 2008. Last Summer we were told chances were good we were in a for a "soft landing". This Fall the bottom fell out, but a recovery would surely come at the end of 09. Now it is Spring of 09 and we are told things are looking better - but the recovery is now not on tap until 2010.

Nobody knows anything.

I see no "recovery" at all in the traditional sense. I know. I know. Who am I to make predictions on the economy? After watching one "economist" after another get it ridiculously wrong on national television, why shouldn't I join in? Apparently all it takes to become an "economist" is the ability to speak and play guessing games. I am more than qualified as I can speak, play guessing games and push publish on the blogger "New Post" thingy. Therefore I am an economist.

So with all that fan fare I direct you to my one thought about why we won't be returning to the "good old days" anytime soon.

70% of US GDP is consumer spending. An economy that is based on consumer spending is, in fact, not an economy at all. It is the basis for other countries economies. Further , it is a sink hole dependant on ever expanding lines of credit and the need for us wee folk to forever be debting to purchase more crap we do not need or want. The model of human beings/American citizens, called "consumers" by our good friends the economists, always consuming more as a way of life, thereby propping up the world economy is dying. AS WELL IT SHOULD. And for the record, it is, in the final analysis, an appalling way to live.

Of course, there are solid reasons we are going back to the "Happy Days" of 2005. No one is going want our stinking dollar soon enough, we don't actually make much of anything anyone wants, we owe everyone else a lot of money....and so on... but finally the one reason under girding it all will be a desire - often unconscious - to return to living life on human scale.

I paraphrase from memory what a friend of a friend said last Fall when asked about the market implosion:

Peoples' need for community and a sense of life's worth does not mesh well with the current stock market.

Damn straight.

The attempt to re-inflate the debt bubble and call it a "recovery" is distressing. My guess is it won't work and will prolong the pain.

Then again, I could be wrong. Nobody knows anything.