Conjured money is one of my "go to" snarks. I claim nothing beyond my gut and some real confusion when it comes to economics. Still, from my far window the economic policies of the Obama/Bush team (those who created the problem are still in charge.) appear dangerous to say the least. Does Obama have a plan b? is a legitimate question.
A close friend recently spent the day with a major economist - I am not at liberty to disclose this person's identity - but she revealed that he thinks Obama is doing some the the right things though "It is not enough." and he went on the say that the real problem is China. The Chinese own most of our debt - they have financed us for the last decade. The relationship has been beneficial to them. There will come a time - some say soon - when they will balk at being our credit card. What then? "they are sacrificing so we can indulge"
My perception that Obama's prime directive is to manage America's wane with a minimum of disruption was strengthened this week by his actions and statements in Europe. He is an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks...The errand he was on in Europe was to let the world know that we will behave. The "grocery clerks" are hail from Goldman Sacks...
Going along to get along is how WAPO put it. What's striking about Obama's diplomacy, however, has been his willingness to embrace the priorities of European governments, Russia and China while playing down - or setting aside altogether - principal American concerns. Is the new president shrewd and pragmatic about using his power at home and abroad - or too passive, even weak?
The era of lowers expectations has arrived. How quickly the bar is lowered is the only pertinent question now.
Music: From the 90s. I rag on Rap - not because it never contributed to the Pop library - it did. But because it has long since worn itself out and is now mostly just lazy whining and a crappy substitute for actually composing a song. But earlier there was moving, yes moving, rap recordings. Coolio: I'll C U When U Get There -incorporating Pachelbel's Canon in D major.
I joke a lot. Too much according to some. I also make a point to have boundaries on this blog - and then push them gently. The fact is though, I am scared. This is a normal reaction because, well, things are scary. If you are not at least a little spooked by what is occurring around and underneath the noise of the inauguration - then you are not looking deeply enough. The economic coalmine has becomes a canary graveyard.
Even the least prone to apocalyptic thinking should stiffen the spine a bit when the richest people around are in meltdown preparation mode.
A million jobs lost a month this Spring? A million. This is not a normal downturn.
I must admit that some of my fear springs from ignorance. I simply do not understand the intricacies of what is happening. Wealth that "existed" in August is now gone. Further, everyone talks about the coming federal trillions as if that money exists - and is not a printing press creation. Forgive my thickheadedness - but I still do not understand how the Federal national bailout won't snap back and collapse just like the faux housing wealth just did. Everyone realizes, eventually, that conjured wealth is not real wealth. Unless the coming bailout focuses on real, sustainable initiatives - not bogus road building and tax breaks for companies that have already failed us - how will it help past 2010?
I am an outside observer (far outside). But my sense is that our leadership is still working and thinking in a paradigm that is disappearing. And quickly. The Dem/Obama bailout is an attempt to restart a system that is dead. A return to the economic model of perpetual growth should not be the goal. Indeed, it cannot be.
Since we must obtain our energy resources (the final arbiter of "growth") from elsewhere we are in a no growth position and have been since the 70s. (Go on then, google 'real income'. It stagnates right around the time we had to start importing oil.)
The push for constant growth here depends on bubbles. Tech bubble, housing bubble, etc. Who will underwrite the next bubble? The Fed can't without destroying the currency. (Which it has apparently decided to do.) The Fed has been a triage ala M.A.S.H. since last April when Bear Stearns caved. The Chinese, now industrialized themselves, won't be available.
Still, just as "hope" and "change" were misused to the point of being rendered meaningless in 2008. "Collapse" is becoming the most misused word of 2009. We are not on the verge of "collapse". Yet. (Though, I reserve the right to rethink 'collapse' at any moment.) We are, however, being forced to shrink. The contraction is coming on with breathtaking speed.
This recession is different in substance and tone than any I've seen. Still, much of my fear is not purely economics. Most - but not all - people find a way. My fear goes to societal reaction. What will it take to keep the angry and dislocated in line? Is there a centering idea left in this culture that we might rally around? I am very afraid that there is not. Which leaves a personality to fill the void. We all know how that invariably turns out.
