Numbers, numbers, numbers

According to RCP's average of major polls Obama's job approval now stands at 52%. It's been a on slow, downward slope since March.

Given that he was elected with 54% of the vote, and given that Americans, being fair minded with new employees, like to give their President's a honeymoon, I originally predicted that Obama would fall below 50% in June. Sometime in March or so I amended my prediction to September, which I'll stick with. I love to give a political prognosis. But I'm queasy about direct predictions and attempt to avoid them unless they're irresistibly obvious and my ego wants on the "told ya so" bandwagon.

This leaves room for:

A. Surprises. Bush was drifting lower and lower in the polls in August of 2001...and then...
B. The fact that I am not, and have no interest in being, a soothsayer.
C. A big, bellowing "No thanks!" when the crow gets passed my way.
D. Surprises. Leaders can surprise. Things change. Sometimes for the better. After a bad first year in the polls Clinton retrenched and 7 years later left office with remarkably high approval ratings.

Few circumstance can push Obama's numbers back upward in the next 6 weeks. Arrogance and inexperience have boxed him in on health care. Perhaps for the first time in his political career when he's having to pay for his arrogance and inexperience in the public arena.

I've made a prediction. I want to have some fun with it. On my Obama approval number prediction - let me tighten my own noose:

Obama's approval will fall below 50% in September. That means - he will be below 50% in RCP's average of the polls for 14 consecutive days. The days cannot start before Sept. 1 and end after Sept. 30. If he falls below 50% in August it doesn't count until September. Conversely, if he sinks below 50% on September 20 and stays there until the 30th - I will also count myself incorrect.

Now you - predict where Obama will be in the RCP average on one day - September 30.