50%

Obama is now down to 50% approval in the Gallup poll, putting him at 51.8% in RCP's average of the major polling outfits. Even that number is buoyed by the outlier ABC/Wapo poll.

Strictly for the sake of my ego I don't want him to sink below 50% until September as that is when I predicted it would happen. He'll be doing a eulogy for Senator Kennedy on Saturday. At the risk of being a bit gross let me say: I think he'll get a little bounce.

The first day after Kennedy's death was about the man. Today it is about the end of an era. (Which for many of us, including me, it is.) A sad finality does accompany the last Kennedy brother's passing. And the media is playing up this angle. Obama does well in moments like this. He'll try like the dickens to pick up the vigor baton. I assume he'll be successful enough to get a few points back in opinion polls. His skill set it perfect for moments like this.

But it shall not last. Obama is now set to have the third biggest drop off in support of any post war President. Only Ford, who pardoned Nixon causing nationwide disgust, and Clinton who won with only 43%, fell further quicker.