Obama needs Clinton

Obama needs Clinton. At least 25% of Democrats have been telling pollsters for months that they are not coming back. That's where it stands on August 1st. The goons at Kos can scream "we don't need 'em" all they want. They are wrong.

I am queasy about polls - they go up and down and all around. However, what I find interesting as hell about the most recent polls is BHO's decline -not that he has declined - but when he's declined. It is not hard to deduce Obama's numbers would fall in polls. But why now? He looks worse the more one looks. That much seems clear. I believe it is only close now because so many find another GOP admin impossible to stomach. Every one thinks Obama should be up 10 points. I think McCain should be - but McCain has to drag the cadaver of the GOP around whether he likes it or not.

Obama faded at the end of the primaries. Viewing things from a distance and it is clear he's been fading for a while. It is normal for the non front runner to pick off a big state here and there after things should be settled. Jackson won a few late in 1988. If memory serves Jerry Brown did too. On the other hand Hillary Clinton won all the big states from March on except North Carolina.

The "bump" after Clinton suspended her campaign was anemic. A few outlying polls had Obama up by the percentage one would expect. Overall he has maintained a 5 point lead - until - and this is what I find intriguing - until he went on the magical mystery tour. Now the race appears even. Why?

That trip did damage to Obama. It confirmed an underlying assumption that many have about him: He's a calculated, self serving politician. He went to Iraq when it would serve him - or so he thought. That trip should have him up 12 points. What Obama has done in the polls all week is fade. When they announced it, I thought moving the acceptance speech to a football stadium had a 50/50 chance of turning people off. I put it now at 70/30. It reads as arrogance. The Berlin stunt turned people off.

Playing the race card has hurt him more.

With Clinton on the ticket he gains 8 points overnight. It is hard to argue with that. It makes the convention much less confrontational. It brings women over 40 back into the fold (they are breaking for McCain now). No Democrat understands what the fall campaign will be about more than Hillary. Hillary can also salvage a few states Obama may well lose to a McCain/ Romeny ticket. (Ohio, Massachusetts, Michigan - yes Obama could lose Mass. and Michigan to a McCain/Romeny ticket). Obama is going to be drilled hard in the Fall. What we have learned is that he is not experienced enough to handle a campaign that is not on his terms all the time. Too much has been handed to him. There is ample evidence that unless Obama gets a lot of help gaming elections - he flails.

If Obama continues to slip he'd better look at Clinton as Veep. Polls are odd, though. The Olympics may do Obama a favor by getting him off the stage for a while. Obama fatigue is setting in and the guy isn't even the nominee yet.

The 24 hour Obama news channels are doing him no favors - even if the coverage is adoring. People want competent administrations in the end - not rock concerts. Clinton is the poster girl for competent. All Obama's slip sliding to the center is easily managed by Clinton -since she is already there. Obama alone is "change". Obama/Clinton is "competent change".

The downside for her on the ticket is small. She can survive - and thrive - with what will be thrown at Obama. Should they win there will be learning on the job in the oval office - but no one will question the qualifications of the Vice President. Hillary knows how the White House goes. If Obama loses she is set for 2012. Obama will be held responsible for the loss. Not Hillary. Dean and Brazille will be thrown to the wolves by then.

Of course, the absurdity of having the less qualified person on the top of an Obama/Clinton ticket will have to be dealt with. But there is plenty of precedent.

Mostly, an Obama/Clinton ticket gives me pause. I don't know that I have it in me to vote against any Clinton at any time. The Clinton's saved the Democratic Party after 12 years of GOP rule. They lead the only 2 term Democratic administration in 60 years. Bill and Hillary Clinton remains the one true voice to most of the real Democratic base. All the large Dem state wins by Hil prove that.