 Forgiving the Franklins is the best comedy about the perils of religion and repression I have ever seen. It is out on DVD in the spring but you can pre Order it now! Go here!
"The perfect antidote to The Passion of the Christ."
PREMIERE MAGAZINE
I have intoned a hell of a lot about what I perceive as the dangerous myopia that the Obama phenomenon has stirred in this nation. I see it as an extension of the foolishness stirred up 8 years ago by Bush. Bushies loved him because he was "strong." That's all they said, although there was no evidence of this. He had a weak track record and was clearly a mean little man. We found out just how small, mean and irrational a man as a nation years later.
The Obamites are much the same. They insist Obama is "new" and "inspirational" without much concern about his plans or ability to govern - and like Bush he has no track record, and appears more and more to be thin skinned and immature.
But he makes certain types FEEL GOOD - and that's enough for them to hand him the White House.
Even my once beloved Keith Olberman has drunk the kool aid. Olberman now uses Hillary Clinton as a punching bag. The psychology of this is alarming. Her merit, worthiness, and life's work mean nothing to the Obama cabal. Keith, MSNBC in general, and their enablers like Arriana Huffington have decided that bashing and insulting Clinton overrides all common sense.
Obama is the something for nothing candidate for a nation that believes deeply it DESERVES something for nothing. The Republicans voted for Bush because they wanted to have a beer with him. A chunk of the Democratic Party has decided to vote for Obama because they know he is comfortable at Whole Foods and probably has the Sundance Channel.
If we continue to fall for candidates that make us feel good I would like to nominate HOMER SIMPSON.
I do want to say this - On Thursday night my party, the oldest political party on earth, the party that gave us Jefferson and FDR, and civil rights, and women's suffrage, and labor laws, will host the last debate of the primary season. And the 2 candidates left are a mixed race man and a woman.
I am damn proud of this.
So, reading the Huffington Post this morning and Stephen Schlesinger has a post up about Senator Clinton getting Bobby's kid's endorsements.
The comments are that Obama's Kennedy's are better than Clinton's Kennedy's. One poster goes as far to say that Bobby's kids don't remember him and that Bobby would support Obama.
Well, as Kennedy from Cape Cod (granted, New Bedford and you have to bring your own lawn chair and a covered dish to our family reunion) this Kennedy is throwing her support behind Senator Clinton.
I'm sure CNN will be calling any moment for a comment.
Senator Clinton received 856,944 votes yesterday in Florida.
1.69 million votes were cast in Florida yesterday on the Democratic side of the primary.
Yet to hear Keith Olbermann discuss it, we mean nothing.
We're only the fourth largest state and the most diverse state to vote so far. But apparently any Democrat who actually voted in the Primary is unaware that our votes are meaningless.
How insulting is that and how different would the coverage have been had Senator Obama won?
Senator Obama said that Senator Clinton won because of name recognition. Hello. He's had ads running here and she has not. He might not be aware of it but he has been in the news lately. We do have newspapers here with national news that have reported the results of the previous primaries. We actually have cable and ABC in most towns and burgs. Senator Obama, we know who you are.
Unfortunately we don't know what you're going to do. People find you inspiring. I need facts. People want to hope. I need to know. Senator Obama's rhetoric is so amorphous that saying you like him the most is like saying neon is your favorite gas.
Senator Clinton may be a policy wonk but I know exactly what she's going to do. The next president is going to be a maid or a janitor with a big frat party to clean up.
I need to know who has the best mop not the best feather duster.
"As a woman, leader, and person of deep convictions, I believe Hillary Clinton would make the best possible choice for president. She shares so many of the concerns of my father. Hillary has spent a lifetime speaking out on behalf of the powerless and working to alleviate poverty, in our country and around the world… At this moment when so much is at stake at home and overseas, I urge our fellow Americans to support Hillary Clinton. That is why my brother Bobby, my sister Kerry, and I are supporting Hillary Clinton."
-- Kathleen Kennedy Townsend
Here is a story of a former Bushie who is disillusioned. Finally. I read this kind of thing and think - HOW CAN REPUBLICANS BE SO STUPID?
Seriously. I know it seems condescending of me - but I do wonder - how could so many people have actually thought George W Bush was "one of them"??? - when he was so obviously a greedy punk frat boy.
I truly believe being Conservative is an expression of a mental illness - the main symptom being denial.
By guest blogger - Jeff Kizer
I've come to realize that Obama is over-qualified to be president of the United States. We haven't yet earned a leader of his caliber. We just elected George W. Bush, twice. Hillary now makes sense. Obama is the genuine article; the majority of Americans don't recognize this quality when they see it. Though selfishly I want to be witness to Obama turning this country into a united, respected, self-respecting, peace-loving nation once again, perhaps it IS a fairy tale--not because Obama isn't capable of it, but because America isn't.
Hillary can't accomplish this. Although it is what we desperately need, it is not what we want. People don't always want what's good for them. We are an adversarial people. We think we want to end the Iraq war, but we don't. We think we want to end the Blue and Red war at home, but we don't. We think we want to end racism and religious intolerance, but what would be the benefit? As long as we fight--between the left and the right--the money keeps rolling in--to the corporations, who get ratings and then bigger, and to the political candidates, who get votes and then employment. And we all get ringside seats to jeer and lob insults at whatever side we're not on. Look at all the negative, hateful commentary we see on the liberal blogs alone. We're supposed to be on the same side, and yet the petty, self-loathing side of our souls can't resist an opportunity to be bitter and mean...and right. Even if it's against ourselves.
But I can't entertain these negative thoughts for too long lest I get depressed, so I keep hoping. I keep hoping that George W. Bush's legacy is that he did such a horrendous job as president that the country course-corrects by uniting behind the most unlikely, inspiring, un-beholden candidate who can actually poise our nation on a path toward making religious hatred, racism, and homophobia groundless and obsolete. How could he not? If Obama were president, not only would we as a country see ourselves differently, but the world would see us differently too: he's half-black; his grandmother lives in an African village with no running water, he lived for years in the most populous Muslim country in the world, his sister is half-Indonesian, he's the modern-day everyman. And right now, we need his particular skills so badly. America needs to be re-branded, if you will, with a face that's fresh, a voice that’s authentic, and a character that engenders hope and respect, and that, most urgently, inspires us to love ourselves and each other. Because if we don't start to love ourselves, how can we expect the rest of the world to? It's not going to happen overnight, but it has to start somewhere. And when I look at Obama, I think, "Bingo, that's where it is!"
The irony is that the George Bushing of America has led us to a point where we are just a little bit dumber than we were 8 years ago. More people didn't graduate from highschool or college, more people didn't learn English or stay out of prison or off drugs or death row, the opposite unfortunately. The country was so evenly split in '00 and '04, that, even though our nation has been shell shocked and stripped of its parts, democrats will still only take the White House by a slight margin in '08. And it is finally dawning on me that the dumbing-down of America doesn't work in Obama's favor. One thing I will say for Hillary: maybe after 8 years of a Hill-Billy administration, America will be smart enough for Barack Obama.
Jeff K from LA
One of the most aggravating things about Obama are his myopic supporters. There is an inability to see through the most obvious campaign blather. I have suspected all along that much of the feverish Obama support is more akin to the "tiger beat" love affair affect than an honest examination of the man's abilities and track record. The media, by and large, has gone along with this love fest. Michelle Obama has also been given a free ride thus far.
In the debate Monday - Senator Clinton finally landed a few blows that are long over due.
Under reported Obama facts:
Bad:
He voted "present 129 times as an Illinois senator. Excuses can be made for this. But none of them hold water. "Present" means he refused to take a stand. It demonstrates a severe lack of backbone. Whether one is concerned about issues such as reproductive rights or simply want a President that is not a coward - these "present" votes should be of concern.
Worse:
As a young lawyer Obama did work for a notorious slum lord in Chicago. Fine. He should be judged on this work. Lord knows if it were Bill or Hillary Clinton who had done the work CNN who be running a special on it by now. He was doing this work at the same time as his much vaunted "community organizing". Whatever that is.
Worst: The sweet real estate deal he made with the same slumlord:
But the Obama-Rezko relationship that's even more troubling for Obama, because it goes to the heart of his campaign's argument about his judgment being superior to the other candidates, is the personal real-estate deal the two men did. Read the rest here.
So much bile spewed at Hillary from these holier than thou "Whole Foods" Democrats (Huffington being the WORST) all with "Obama is our lord and saviour" subtext...Guess what: Obama is a politician just like Clinton and McCain and the rest. The delusion that the man with the thin resume from Illinois is some how superior must end now. Obama must be examined under the harsh light of REALITY just like Clinton and Edwards, not from the delusional fantasy land of a vague "inspiring" speeches.
As for the Obama whine that he is running against 2 Clintons. That's true. And Senator Clinton is running against Barack Hussein Obama and his lawyer wife. Deal with it.
Michelle Obama's work: She served on the board of TreeHouse Foods, Inc., a major Wal-Mart supplier with whom she cut ties immediately after her husband made comments critical of Wal-Mart at an AFL-CIO forum in Trenton, New Jersey, on May 14, 2007. She was paid $51,200 by TreeHouse in 2006.
Get it? She worked for a major wal mart supplier until 4 months after her husband announced his run. There is nothing "superior" about this couple. Democrats can deal with this now or hear about the Obama's past all summer and fall on Fox news. On issues there is NO - None - zero - difference between Clinton and Obama.
The difference is experience. Clinton has it. Obama does not.
This election season is proving the old adage, "Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line" to be wrong.
David Brooks has an interesting piece today in the Times about John McCain and Mike Huckabee and how the Republican leaders hate them.
"I'm here to tell you, if either of these two guys get the nomination, it's going to destroy the Republican Party," Rush Limbaugh said recently on his radio show. "It's going to change it forever, be the end of it." And yet, John McCain won New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Democrats may not love Hillary but we respect her. She's the smartest girl in the room. It's easy to fall in Love with Obama's rhetoric, but do you actually think that from day one he'll get the job done?
Erica Jong wrote an amazing peice on the Huffington Post comparing the 2000 election adn how the press never really questioned George Bush and loathed Al Gore to today's love fest with Obama and the obvious disdain for Clinton.
I had met Al Gore at a fundraiser and thought he was brilliant. And a good speaker. And a decent guy. I couldn't understand the press about him, which seemed to me to assault him for possessing functioning brain cells. I was astounded that journalists seemed to love this dumb frat boy named George W., who glad-handed the press while they made fun of this brilliant man (Al Gore) who had a good grip on foreign policy, the environment, the economy (we had a surplus then, remember?) social issues, civil rights for minorities and majorities (women's rights).
Al Gore was so obviously the superior candidate that it seemed absurd that anyone would ever consider voting for George W. Bush.
But the press hated Gore and loved Dubya -- as he was then called.
You'd think that after eight years of Bushwa, we'd look deeper at the candidates and what they read, what they think, what they've done all their lives. You'd think we'd notice that Hillary was always for kids and mothers and flex time and family leave. You'd think we'd notice that the people of New York State hated her at first as a carpetbagger but then fell in love with her because she did so much for them -- even in the formerly Republican areas upstate. You'd think we'd notice that Obama is extremely promising as a leader but a bit unseasoned. You'd think we'd notice that the press is anointing him without much inquiry while enthusiastically smearing HRC. You'd think we'd notice that electing a new face is not as important as looking at thirty-five years of passion for civil rights, women's rights, the Constitution. You'd think we'd mistrust the press a little more because the press just loved smearing Al Gore before he was a Nobel-ist. He was always very smart. Do we need the dynamite factory to validate our perceptions? Apparently.
Perhaps it's not that the media has written a narrative for the election and are determined to push it on us that explains their hatred of Clinton. Could the media's love affair with the Obama be explained as simply as we resent people who are smarter than us?
The good news is that the electorate has wised up since 2000. Sure, Obama was going to win New Hampshire. The press was "blindsided" by Senator Clinton's victory. There was so much backlash against Chris Matthews that he had to apologize for his treatment of Clinton.
It's not just the writers who are on strike; it's the voters. And we won't be lead like sheep again.
Guest Blogger Barbara Tone lays out her case for John Edwards:
John Edwards For President
I support John Edwards because he speaks to what is in my heart. He admitted making a mistake in voting for the war and has apologized; that went a long way with me. He also seems to be the only candidate who is not afraid to be a liberal.
He's not afraid of the T word, and acknowledges that the dollars for social programs have to come from somewhere. He seems the most serious about poverty. Unfortunately I do not recall who said it, but I do believe that ultimately a society will be judged on how it treats the less fortunate. I think we will all ultimately be judged - by God or by our own consciences - on how we treat the less fortunate. I am impressed with his 30-year plan to deal with poverty; one of the big problems with the country is the short-term approach to everything.
He is the only candidate to even address the gay and lesbian issue on his website. I have many gays and lesbians among my friends/family/co-workers and know that their right to marry and be treated equally in all ways is long overdue. He has not gone as far as I would like, but at least he puts his views in writing for all to see.
He is also the only one who addresses Darfur on his website. This is an international disgrace and where has the US been?
He has openly and aggressively addressed the issue of the erosion of our civil liberties, a huge concern to me; we have gone a long way down a very dangerous road and need to put it in reverse and step on it.
Finally, I have been a nurse for many years and am horrified about what is going on in health care. It is unconscionable that families can go bankrupt paying for health care, or die for lack of funds. It is impossible for any person of conscience to stand at the bedside of any seriously ill person and not conclude that health care is a right.. The Edwards plan is the most representative of the direction I think this country should take and he has not been afraid to call out the insurance and pharmaceutical companies.
I will, of course, vote for whichever Democrat is nominated, and there are things I like about Senators Clinton and Obama. For me, however, John Edwards is the complete package. He has addressed all of my major concerns and in a way that I can fully support.
Barbara Tone, RN
Simi Valley, CA
Anyone else detect an air of brattiness oozing out of the Obama camp when they lose an election? His concession speech in New Hamphire while inspiring - of course - was also hardly a concession speech. He did not congratulate Senator Clinton after losing to her in Nevada. He then ditched the state immediately. For all his alleged style points - not congratulating the winner is TACKY. He also complimented RONALD REAGAN and NOT Bill Clinton. Wow. That is pushing your nose against the asshole glass in a Democratic caucus state.
The fact is that Obama has never had to be in a competitive race. He either used insider tactics to clean the slate of competition, as we first learned here - or ran against Alan Keyes.... He's getting a taste of REALpolitics now.
He should win South Carolina - but because his team misplayed the race card - it may be an empty victory perceived by the nation as "African American voters voting for an an African American because he is African American." This unfair - but real - perception is his own fault.
His people manipulated Clinton's remark about the necessity of a strong executive - in this case LBJ - to inflame old wounds.
Do you believe? I do. Read all about it: here.
But why won't UFOs ever fly over Big Cities with lots of arugula Democrats and country club GOPs?
The Bush recession is here.
Forget rate cuts and stimulus packages. In Wall Street's eyes, the recession is already here and the credit crunch is far from over...
Read the rest here.
Interesting piece at Talk Left on 2 counts:
1. Unlike other big liberal blogs it is not, mindlessly, and irrationally pro-obama.
2. It points up some classic Chicago style politics being employed by the Nevada culinary union.
Trust me this is not "new" or a "change" - it is classic. Mayor Daley would be proud.
 Management styles... In the debate last night Obama used the "I'll hire good people" defense when his management style - or lack of it - came up. This is, of course, the W circa 2000 reasoning when his foreign policy experience was called into question..he's a bush he'll have good advisers... And we all know how that turned out.
Jesus told him to run the country off a cliff.
I believe I have come to terms with voting for Obama is he gets the nod. But I am MORE nervous about him now than ever. It seems more and more like his one, and only, skill is the ability to "inspire". That should last about 4 months into his first term before getting mighty old. I guess after that he'll be relying on the "good people" he hired.
Mitt is the change candidate.
His daddy was only a governor.
As we come up on the end of the fifth year of the war in Iraq a senior member of the Bush administration made a SURPRISE visit to Iraq. Condi Rice "slipped away" from the President's entarauge to slink in to Iraq. Tell me how progress is being made? Mr. Bush continues to lie about the war - now THERE'S a surprise - saying in Israel last week that we had to go to war because Sadaam wouldn't let the inspectors in. LIE LIE LIE.
Car bombs are stilling going off, a Sunni judge was assasinated last week, Iraqi security forces are being murdered. Did you hear any of that on the news? I know that would be focusing on bad news and not how mean Hillary is but how long did we focus on Virginia Tech? I'm not saying that wasn't a tragedy but we created a situation in Iraq where people live like that every day.
Just a little perspective, please!
I love politics - but I looooooooooooooooooove stories like this:
Dozens in Texas Town Report Seeing UFO
Thanks to my friend Jay for passing the story along.... now the History Channel will have whole new hours of primetime UFO specials with slightly different cuts of the same material!!! I love that crap!
I ignored the race story that the Obama camp and the media created yesterday because:
1. It is beyond ridiculous. The Obamas exploited an innocuous comment by Hillary Clinton to win big in South Carolina.
2. The media, who are compulsively being sexist in the campaign which works to Obama's advantage, need a storyline for a day or two and they LOVE race. Especially when the story includes a white woman.
What Obama needs to understand is this: exploiting the race issue may help him in South Carolina but it hurts hims elsewhere. Insinuating that some one like Hillary Clinton is racially biased is EXACTLY THE KIND OF THING THAT WHITE LIBERALS AND MODERATES ARE SO F*^#ING SICK OF. No white person can say anything about race without it being vetted syllable by syllable. It is ridiculous on its face. and aggravating as hell. And there will be a backlash.
Obama fell into a trap of his own making.
New indications emerged yesterday that the spiraling subprime mortgage crisis is spreading from home loans to credit cards, potentially engulfing a far broader segment of Americans. At the same time, the U.S. trade deficit soared to a 14-month high, fueled by soaring oil prices.
The rest here.
Things are looking good for Hill in California. Even Independents are breaking for her. New poll here.
More TRUTH about Obama in the Chicago Tribune:
A close examination of Obama's first campaign clouds the image he has cultivated throughout his political career: The man now running for president on a message of giving a voice to the voiceless first entered public office not by leveling the playing field, but by clearing it. Read the rest here.
Are the members of the media working the Obama campaign ever going to ask him tough questions?
Dems better see the other side of Obama now and deal with it now(and still go with him, if we choose to - but we should not choose a man based on our fantasies about him). The fantasy that this man is anything but a Chicago Politician has got to stop. And worse, the media adulation has to stop. It is time to really examine Obama or we Democrats are in for a rude and brutal awakening when the GOP gets hold of him .
Also some sanity about Obama from Krugman: I know that Mr. Obama’s supporters hate to hear this, but he really is less progressive than his rivals on matters of domestic policy.
As we all know, Saint Obama can do no wrong. If he could the media, which has no bias whatsoever, would have told us by now. While Saint Obama will surely save us as a nation with the healing power of his speeches - which are known to cause flowers to bloom in winter, and small rodents within ear shot to spontaneously combust, what many people do not know about Saint Obama are the way his powers can affect our everyday lives. For example:
* Mixed with water, Barack Obama's snot is a proven treatment for hypertension, menstrual cramps, and seasonal allergies.
* Those who pass through one of Barack Obama's fart clouds experience Ecstasy and perfect unity with the UNIVERSE.
* It is now proven that Saint Obama's belly button lint absorbs greenhouse gasses.
*Obama's face has appeared spontaneously on bratwurst in Wisconsin, Wonder Bread in South Dakota, and Bill Richardson's left thigh.
*If you chant "Barack Obama" 3 times while starting your car - parking spaces open up at all your destinations just as you arrive.
* Saint Obama has not yet mastered turning water into wine but he regularly turns tap water into refreshing Diet Coke for the press corps.
*Saint Obama quit smoking - ALL BY HIMSELF!
If you have any anecdotal information about Barack Obama's life or powers please post them here or send them to me.
(hat tip to the hilarious Brooke's riff - that prompted this post)
Wow - just when I was moving a wee bit to liking Obama he says:
"Since I'm in Las Vegas, I'm going to say: I'm the jackpot. My bet is paying off," YOU'RE THE JACKPOT? Not so fast. What bet? Did you bet you could buffalo a nation of people into voting for you with vague platitudes? Hey bud - say something besides "hope and change" just for the hell of it As my friend Jay asks when he hears an Obama supporter talk change: Change into WHAT?
The answer is silence, since no one has an answer. Even Obama.
NOTE: the LA TIMES has stated that it misquoted Obama earlier today. He actually said "I hit the jackpot". Hmmm. The Times has been so pro Obama it is hard to fathom this. But I post it. for "clarity"
So many interesting story lines came out of New Hampshire beyond the obvious stunner of a Clinton victory. Here are 2 that have not gotten enough press if you ask me.
1. Edwards blew it. Not that he was ever going to win NH - but by, in essence, supporting Obama in the debate - he gave his national supporters little reason to stick around. 2 days later a couple of big unions endorsed Obama. Unions he should have contested. Even if he never had a shot at their endorsements his tacit siding with Obama neutered one of his major themes that Clinton was under girding for him: I am the guy, in the end, who can take on the big corporations because of my experience. He was hoping to end Clinton's run in NH and set himself up as the Obama alternative by super duper Tuesday. Apparently, no one on his team understood the power of a Clinton in New Hampshire. The saner idea would have been to unload on Obama in the debate and push himself over 20%. Then he would have remained a viable alternative to Obama. Not a strong one - but stronger than he is now.
2. Obama changed a GOP equation that night. This is entirely counter intuitive but follow it: Obama lost to Clinton. But his speech, which barely conceded, and was quite good, came right after McCain's victory "speech" on the GOP side. McCain took his moment of Resurrection and gave us a view of an exhausted old man. I have thought for a few months that the GOP had gone silent on Obama because they viewed him as a loser in the Fall. Popularity polls aside this is an astute game plan. Have Obama take out Hillary - then destroy Obama. Obama is one kick ass Democratic candidate. He is the kind of guy we love to love. Rove, who has being calling him Adali Stevenson for some time - telegraphing the intended Autumn assault on him - understands that Democrats falling in love usually equals a GOP win in November.
The comparison of Stevenson vs. Eisenhower in 1952 and Obama vs. McCain in 2008 is pretty damn smart.
Setting aside the lefty blogs echo chambers - the fact has always been that a tough Hillary Clinton was going to be a difficult general election candidate for the GOP. A full blown recession by the 3rd quarter almost assures a Clinton win.
The "she is too divisive" meme is just dumb. First of all, this issue is overrated and wildly overstated. Secondly, divisive candidates often win elections. Bush in 2000 and Nixon in 1968 come to mind. Divisive is what elections ARE.
The plans of the GOP may have been rethought on Tuesday.
McCain and Obama appearing in such close proximity on TV - must have given a few stale wart GOPs some pause. The idea that Obama's flowering rhetoric could not withstand a frontal assault from the "swift boat" machine over the summer fell off substantially. McCain was supposed to be the guy who presented to us a vision of experience and security - he gave us a doddering old man act. And McCain is the best man they've got for the general election. Until Tuesday night I think the GOP figured the Democrats would be willing to take a flying leap toward Obama but the country as a whole would not after they were through with him.
A McCain vs Obama general is now an even bet as far as I can tell. I would not have said that a week ago.
Here's another seemingly out there thought: If I were Obama I would try like hell to get Colin Powell's endorsement now. Remove him from any chatter on the GOP side this summer. I doubt he does - but what if he wants to rewrite his story after choking on Bush's lies? What if he sees a McCain/ Powell ticket as a way to do that? Fodder for thought. General elections are about winning the middle after all.
There is much flotsam and jetsam in the media today about "how the media could have gotten the polls in New Hampshire so wrong."
As is almost always the case in the MSM the question is wrong. Here's a simple truth. No one got the polls wrong.
On the day of the Iowa caucuses Clinton lead Obama in New Hampshire by 4 points. Those polls were correct.
Three days later Obama lead Clinton by 12 points. Those polls were correct.
Two days after that - Clinton lead Obama by three points and won the primary. Those "polls" were correct.
No one got anything "wrong."
The danger for Clinton and Obama (and followers of either, like me) is the phenomenon of "phenomenon politics". Obama was, until last night, a phenomenon, not a candidate. The phenomenon of Obama washed over N.H. after Iowa like a spring blizzard. For 2 days NH was snowed in. Then, as quickly as the snow came, it melted. It is odd that no one questioned whether the polls on Sunday were valid or would hold up. Everyone assumed it. Including me. No one questioned whether or not Obama had closed the deal.
"Phenomenon" candidates never close the deal. They can't. They can win but they can't close the deal. They have to keep the phenomenon going. What Obama did was become the "winner" over night. He stopped taking questions - a lethal move before one primary was even done. More than that, the media stopped seeing him during the debate. They reported on the phenomenon. Those of us who SAW him during the debate saw a skilled politician walking up to the condescension line repeatedly - then backing off. My opinion is that he lost NH when he told Clinton she was "likable enough." The comment was gross - and women in particular saw that.
Edwards played an odd game. He's about to become Harold Stassen. Richardson provided some comic relief and Clinton answered questions. If the MSM had SEEN the debate instead of just reporting on the Obama phenomenon they would have seen a shift happening.
Clinton, to her political credit, provided a lot of light (mostly on herself) , and her husband applied a little heat. And the snow melted. Quickly.
All the polls got it right.
The polls on Tuesday and the polls last Thursday were remarkably similar.
Obama did get an Iowa bump. It turned out to be 1%.
I WAS WRONG! CLINTON WINS!
THANK GOD! THE CORONATION OF SAINT OBAMA IS OFF!
Last night's post below aside - I really think Hillary Clinton is cooked. Of course, anything can happen between now and Feb 5th when so many states vote. But a come back like she needs takes more political skill than she has. (I have no doubt she has governing skills). The "anything" that needs to happen is out of her hands.
The word that I think best describes what has happened to her campaign is HEALTHCARE. Okay, you say, that's odd, John.
It's simple: I think when all is said and done she (and the disastrous Mark Penn) made a series of blunders that are strikingly similar to the mistakes she made when she hunkered down in the early 90's to reform health care - a tightly controlled plan was put together, but no room was left for adjustment, and when one was needed instead of making it, the initial response was to hunker down MORE and dig in. In both the case of health care reform in 1994 and her campaign this year: once she became willing to adjust her plan it was too late.
At least, I am pretty sure it is too late.
Some other points:
1. So what? Well, it means something pretty simple: the best qualified candidate will not be President. This is often the case. Still, it is hard to imagine a more intelligent and skilled person in the White House as an antidote to W than Hillary Clinton. It is disappointing.
2. It almost certainly means a GOP retention of the White House. As a Hillary fan I admit defeat. What I don't admit is that I am wrong on the foolishness of the DEMS sending Obama out to the slaughter. His polls numbers in head to heads with McCain are stunningly close in some blue states NOW. (see below) Imagine 6 months from now after he makes a mistake or two, the saber rattling with Iran gets bad again... the GOP and Fox kick back into high bash DEMS gear... terrorism...etc...etc... his skills as a speaker are amazing. by the time the Boone Pickens crowd is done with him though... he will need more than speaking skills. (it was telling that his response to Hill in the debate after she said "words are not enough" was to, in essence, say back - " yes they are" Obama believes in words. As far as I can tell so far, that's all he believes in.)
He has never been tested in any election. Ever. He will be soon.
3. I am, of course, assuming that McCain will be who the GOP settles on . If he is not - Obama could well be President. The GOP will fall in line with the person most likely to beat Obama once it becomes crystal clear he is the DEM nominee. ( about 3 weeks) GOPs do self preservation much better than Dems.
Everything that makes Hillary a weaker primary candidate makes her a stronger general election candidate. Invert for Obama. White America is congratulating itself for voting "Obama" now. This is bullshit. A teeny tiny number of White DEMOCRATS are voting for Obama. America has done nothing of the sort. Nor, I suspect, will it. No ones knows his story. They will - and they will find it odd - and not like theirs at all. The middle class will run back to daddy McCain in droves.
I was dead wrong in my political assessment of Hillary - so I could be wrong about Obama in the fall. We shall see. I want to be wrong. I want to find more in him than I do now. Right now, he's a movie screen on which we are projecting hope and self congratulation.
I will re look at Obama in the summer and see if I can get on board.
4. The media from top to bottom has been vicious to Hillary and adoring of Obama. Creepy adoring. Irresponsibly adoring.
As for the bloggers everyone from Drudge to Huffington are gleeful about Hillary's demise. Arianna Huffington's unconscious sexism is the most disgusting of all. Her snide, smug attacks on Hillary are strikingly similar to her attacks on Diane Feinstein when her ex husband ran a close race against her for Senate in 1994. She finds accomplished women threatening. A good looking man with a thin resume beating up on a capable, accomplished, strong woman is Huffington's idea of the perfect party.
She'll turn on Obama soon enough. The compulsion of the peanut gallery Whole Foods Progressives to LOSE will finally roar back in on the back of a terror alert or, perhaps, on the prospect of winning an election. That always freaks them out. Without someone to condescend to people like Huffington don't actually exist.
5. Finally - what to do with my year? I was going to spend my free time helping a woman to become President. Hmm. I shall have to go to plan B - become a judge on Dancing with the Stars.
Very exciting. Viva 2008!
I just googled state by state head to heads for mccain v obama and mccain v clinton. all polls are between 12/22 and today. number one is mccain v obama. second pic is mccain v clinton. it's fascinating. as of yesterday obama is only in the margin of error barely in some sure bet blue states - mass and new york he leads mccain by 4 only four points. i filled in a few states i could not find polls for but assumed the vote - utahalaska. the assumptions about obama in the media are so WRONG. weird - places like kentucky clinton is way ahead of mccain. she ties him in tenn. so i gave it to him. whereas obama is tied with mccain in oregon - a blue state so i gave it to him. and god bless all hispanics. apparently hispanics are solid for hillary and will not slip for the best reason of all - they dislike obama. they do not trust him. i knew i was hispanic at heart. no reason can be specified they just don't like him. i am not alone! after south carolina hispanics become really big players. okay, i feel better. barely. Obama is one of the best politicians around - he is also one of the most vulnerable.
I have said for a long time Obama's negatives will sky rocket if he becomes the nominee.
In the comments section i encourage people to name one thing that Barack Hussein Obama has accomplished while in politics. Name one thing. Winning the Iowa caucus does not count.
One thing. Name one thing.
Hillary Clinton lost the Iowa caucuses tonight. Bad news for Clinton supporters like yours truly. I think the answer is simple - or at least part of the answer - she closed the deal with older women a while ago. And she kept on closing it. Much of her campaign in the last month has been about getting older women to vote. She shored up that block - then kept shoring.
There was a block of Democratic men who wanted a case for Hillary made. They waited. It was not made. The organisation had enough money and people to appeal to her base AND younger men.
It would be easy enough to make a strong appeal to middle aged men. Hillary is the toughest candidate out there. Bar none. Emphasizing her strengths would have pealed off enough men from Edwards and Obama for her to win.
Hillary is going to have to broaden her appeal beyond the solid block of older women if she expects to win elsewhere.
Another need now is simple. Her campaign needs to hit Obama hard. The case for Obama has not been responded to in a clear, consistent way. The case against him has been made - gently -
this must end. Politics is a blood sport. No one likes to admit it - but it is a rough, mean business. Huckabee proved it tonight. He ran a nasty campaign against Romney and it worked.
Why do these tiny groups of people in Iowa and New Hampshire get to wield so much influence? These 2 states do not represent the country at all. They do not deserve their position.
It is time to put and end to this crazy system. A solution is simple:
A. Rotate the primaries regionally every 4 years.
B. No state should be allowed to hold a primary before April 16th of an election year.
NH and Iowa will balk. Fine. Strip them of their delegates if they hold elections early. Ridiculously - the DNC has done this to Florida and Michigan this year. And the Macguffin that "retail" politics in these 2 irrelevant states is good for the process is bullshit. Meeting a small group of people that do represent the electorate serves no one - except the chamber of commerces of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Americans are fed up with this system. Read a poll here. Its s time for this crack pot system to end.
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