N. H., Obama, and the danger of "phenomenon" politics
There is much flotsam and jetsam in the media today about "how the media could have gotten the polls in New Hampshire so wrong."
As is almost always the case in the MSM the question is wrong. Here's a simple truth. No one got the polls wrong.
On the day of the Iowa caucuses Clinton lead Obama in New Hampshire by 4 points. Those polls were correct.
Three days later Obama lead Clinton by 12 points. Those polls were correct.
Two days after that - Clinton lead Obama by three points and won the primary. Those "polls" were correct.
No one got anything "wrong."
The danger for Clinton and Obama (and followers of either, like me) is the phenomenon of "phenomenon politics". Obama was, until last night, a phenomenon, not a candidate. The phenomenon of Obama washed over N.H. after Iowa like a spring blizzard. For 2 days NH was snowed in. Then, as quickly as the snow came, it melted. It is odd that no one questioned whether the polls on Sunday were valid or would hold up. Everyone assumed it. Including me. No one questioned whether or not Obama had closed the deal.
"Phenomenon" candidates never close the deal. They can't. They can win but they can't close the deal. They have to keep the phenomenon going. What Obama did was become the "winner" over night. He stopped taking questions - a lethal move before one primary was even done. More than that, the media stopped seeing him during the debate. They reported on the phenomenon. Those of us who SAW him during the debate saw a skilled politician walking up to the condescension line repeatedly - then backing off. My opinion is that he lost NH when he told Clinton she was "likable enough." The comment was gross - and women in particular saw that.
Edwards played an odd game. He's about to become Harold Stassen. Richardson provided some comic relief and Clinton answered questions. If the MSM had SEEN the debate instead of just reporting on the Obama phenomenon they would have seen a shift happening.
Clinton, to her political credit, provided a lot of light (mostly on herself) , and her husband applied a little heat. And the snow melted. Quickly.
All the polls got it right.
The polls on Tuesday and the polls last Thursday were remarkably similar.
Obama did get an Iowa bump. It turned out to be 1%.
As is almost always the case in the MSM the question is wrong. Here's a simple truth. No one got the polls wrong.
On the day of the Iowa caucuses Clinton lead Obama in New Hampshire by 4 points. Those polls were correct.
Three days later Obama lead Clinton by 12 points. Those polls were correct.
Two days after that - Clinton lead Obama by three points and won the primary. Those "polls" were correct.
No one got anything "wrong."
The danger for Clinton and Obama (and followers of either, like me) is the phenomenon of "phenomenon politics". Obama was, until last night, a phenomenon, not a candidate. The phenomenon of Obama washed over N.H. after Iowa like a spring blizzard. For 2 days NH was snowed in. Then, as quickly as the snow came, it melted. It is odd that no one questioned whether the polls on Sunday were valid or would hold up. Everyone assumed it. Including me. No one questioned whether or not Obama had closed the deal.
"Phenomenon" candidates never close the deal. They can't. They can win but they can't close the deal. They have to keep the phenomenon going. What Obama did was become the "winner" over night. He stopped taking questions - a lethal move before one primary was even done. More than that, the media stopped seeing him during the debate. They reported on the phenomenon. Those of us who SAW him during the debate saw a skilled politician walking up to the condescension line repeatedly - then backing off. My opinion is that he lost NH when he told Clinton she was "likable enough." The comment was gross - and women in particular saw that.
Edwards played an odd game. He's about to become Harold Stassen. Richardson provided some comic relief and Clinton answered questions. If the MSM had SEEN the debate instead of just reporting on the Obama phenomenon they would have seen a shift happening.
Clinton, to her political credit, provided a lot of light (mostly on herself) , and her husband applied a little heat. And the snow melted. Quickly.
All the polls got it right.
The polls on Tuesday and the polls last Thursday were remarkably similar.
Obama did get an Iowa bump. It turned out to be 1%.
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