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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

What should I do with my year? And Hillary Healthcare redux

Last night's post below aside - I really think Hillary Clinton is cooked. Of course, anything can happen between now and Feb 5th when so many states vote. But a come back like she needs takes more political skill than she has. (I have no doubt she has governing skills). The "anything" that needs to happen is out of her hands.
The word that I think best describes what has happened to her campaign is HEALTHCARE. Okay, you say, that's odd, John.
It's simple: I think when all is said and done she (and the disastrous Mark Penn) made a series of blunders that are strikingly similar to the mistakes she made when she hunkered down in the early 90's to reform health care - a tightly controlled plan was put together, but no room was left for adjustment, and when one was needed instead of making it, the initial response was to hunker down MORE and dig in. In both the case of health care reform in 1994 and her campaign this year: once she became willing to adjust her plan it was too late.
At least, I am pretty sure it is too late.
Some other points:

1. So what? Well, it means something pretty simple: the best qualified candidate will not be President. This is often the case. Still, it is hard to imagine a more intelligent and skilled person in the White House as an antidote to W than Hillary Clinton. It is disappointing.

2. It almost certainly means a GOP retention of the White House. As a Hillary fan I admit defeat. What I don't admit is that I am wrong on the foolishness of the DEMS sending Obama out to the slaughter. His polls numbers in head to heads with McCain are stunningly close in some blue states NOW. (see below) Imagine 6 months from now after he makes a mistake or two, the saber rattling with Iran gets bad again... the GOP and Fox kick back into high bash DEMS gear... terrorism...etc...etc... his skills as a speaker are amazing. by the time the Boone Pickens crowd is done with him though... he will need more than speaking skills. (it was telling that his response to Hill in the debate after she said "words are not enough" was to, in essence, say back - " yes they are" Obama believes in words. As far as I can tell so far, that's all he believes in.)

He has never been tested in any election. Ever. He will be soon.

3. I am, of course, assuming that McCain will be who the GOP settles on . If he is not - Obama could well be President. The GOP will fall in line with the person most likely to beat Obama once it becomes crystal clear he is the DEM nominee. ( about 3 weeks) GOPs do self preservation much better than Dems.
Everything that makes Hillary a weaker primary candidate makes her a stronger general election candidate. Invert for Obama. White America is congratulating itself for voting "Obama" now. This is bullshit. A teeny tiny number of White DEMOCRATS are voting for Obama. America has done nothing of the sort. Nor, I suspect, will it. No ones knows his story. They will - and they will find it odd - and not like theirs at all. The middle class will run back to daddy McCain in droves.
I was dead wrong in my political assessment of Hillary - so I could be wrong about Obama in the fall. We shall see. I want to be wrong. I want to find more in him than I do now. Right now, he's a movie screen on which we are projecting hope and self congratulation.

I will re look at Obama in the summer and see if I can get on board.

4. The media from top to bottom has been vicious to Hillary and adoring of Obama. Creepy adoring. Irresponsibly adoring.
As for the bloggers everyone from Drudge to Huffington are gleeful about Hillary's demise. Arianna Huffington's unconscious sexism is the most disgusting of all. Her snide, smug attacks on Hillary are strikingly similar to her attacks on Diane Feinstein when her ex husband ran a close race against her for Senate in 1994. She finds accomplished women threatening. A good looking man with a thin resume beating up on a capable, accomplished, strong woman is Huffington's idea of the perfect party.
She'll turn on Obama soon enough. The compulsion of the peanut gallery Whole Foods Progressives to LOSE will finally roar back in on the back of a terror alert or, perhaps, on the prospect of winning an election. That always freaks them out. Without someone to condescend to people like Huffington don't actually exist.

5. Finally - what to do with my year? I was going to spend my free time helping a woman to become President. Hmm. I shall have to go to plan B - become a judge on Dancing with the Stars.
Very exciting. Viva 2008!

 

 
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