Great Expectations
Things are rotten. We are entering 2009 in bad shape. Don't kid yourself. The economy is a cornered animal. President elect Sunshine is proposing a gargantuan increase in the national debt in the form of tax cuts and spending. He'll get it. Like the financial bailout, which failed, and the auto bailout, which will fail - this will be sold as a "we have no choice" bill. And it may seem true. Actually, I am not opposed to this mind numbing debt bill. The 2 alternatives are worse or impossible.
A worse choice is to avoid conjuring more faux wealth and let the economy collapse completely. The social disruption would be immediate and severe. So Obama is proposing a rear guard, delaying action and plastering is over with a prayer. It may work for a while. But inflation will come. And it will be brutal. The Obama debt bill is all about pretending we can return to the kind of prosperity we've come to believe is a birthright. We can't.
The impossible choice - so it would seem - is for America to suddenly wake up and realize the party is over, go along with the contraction, stop depending on bubbles to create fleeting wealth, and generally live within our means.
Not gonna happen.
The foreign policy front is as bad - though we might see it clearly yet. The Russia/Ukraine fight over energy will spill over soon. Russia is in trouble - which means we are in trouble. Gaza may be a relatively minor problem in short order. But it is a problem. Obama's standing in 1/4 of the world is already in free fall. One war is going to expanded and another will limp along.
There is a reason why Obama has allowed Senator Clinton to create what amounts to a "foreign policy Presidency" with the incoming State Department while he vacationed. He needs her to. We have elected a man with next to no experience. Fanciful comparisons aside, we've never really done this before. Lincoln does come closest to being an apt comparison. But I know of no one who wants to relive 1860-64. Besides, Obama has shown none of the intellectual power of Lincoln. Lincoln risked his career and life at least twice - opposing the Mexican war and secession. Obama has never risked so much as the wrath of his wife.
He has been moderately savvy in his picks. Change is not the watchword, however. He has opted for a more intelligent version of the status quo.
No matter what, the buck stops in the oval office. W gave lip service to this adage - but is a failure because he and his peeps were forever passing the buck - and continue to at this late date.
No one, other than the most ardent Obamatons, will allow him to skate. The country is sick of false leadership and expects Obama to be the real deal. He'd better be.
When things go south, blaming Hillary will get some press. But the law of diminishing returns has set in on this front. Recent history suggests that if Obama tanks, the Clintons will remain standing - somehow. They remain the one couple that can steal the spotlight. A cautious, please everyone, President without a candidate Clinton or Palin to rough up, stands little chance. Nor does intellect trump muscle in a dangerous world. The 24 hour media is merciless and the strain is already - or rather, finally - showing.
Clinton's stature grew all year. Obama's flatlined in April and it took a massive shove from the DNC and the media to get him over the top in August and a financial meltdown in October to the finish line. A good transition has been helpful. But it has also raised expectations to an absurd level.
As a political observer, I admire many of Obama's picks. It seems Obama understood better than the rest of us that "Change" was a powerful slogan and nothing else. I can't think of one appointment that suggests real change. Many are, however, powerful insiders. They will get something done. It just won't be new.
As a man with political opinions - Obama's picks are hilarious. The American Left has been left out in the cold. My politics aside, I take deep satisfaction in how much the alleged Left has been ditched. There will be no liberal administration. American Progressives, after a smug moment on 1/20, please retreat to your corners and continue whining.
I also don't expect the "Thank God Bush is gone" meme to last long. Bush has been gone for a while.
2009 is going to be very bumpy. Hold tight.
A worse choice is to avoid conjuring more faux wealth and let the economy collapse completely. The social disruption would be immediate and severe. So Obama is proposing a rear guard, delaying action and plastering is over with a prayer. It may work for a while. But inflation will come. And it will be brutal. The Obama debt bill is all about pretending we can return to the kind of prosperity we've come to believe is a birthright. We can't.
The impossible choice - so it would seem - is for America to suddenly wake up and realize the party is over, go along with the contraction, stop depending on bubbles to create fleeting wealth, and generally live within our means.
Not gonna happen.
The foreign policy front is as bad - though we might see it clearly yet. The Russia/Ukraine fight over energy will spill over soon. Russia is in trouble - which means we are in trouble. Gaza may be a relatively minor problem in short order. But it is a problem. Obama's standing in 1/4 of the world is already in free fall. One war is going to expanded and another will limp along.
There is a reason why Obama has allowed Senator Clinton to create what amounts to a "foreign policy Presidency" with the incoming State Department while he vacationed. He needs her to. We have elected a man with next to no experience. Fanciful comparisons aside, we've never really done this before. Lincoln does come closest to being an apt comparison. But I know of no one who wants to relive 1860-64. Besides, Obama has shown none of the intellectual power of Lincoln. Lincoln risked his career and life at least twice - opposing the Mexican war and secession. Obama has never risked so much as the wrath of his wife.
He has been moderately savvy in his picks. Change is not the watchword, however. He has opted for a more intelligent version of the status quo.
No matter what, the buck stops in the oval office. W gave lip service to this adage - but is a failure because he and his peeps were forever passing the buck - and continue to at this late date.
No one, other than the most ardent Obamatons, will allow him to skate. The country is sick of false leadership and expects Obama to be the real deal. He'd better be.
When things go south, blaming Hillary will get some press. But the law of diminishing returns has set in on this front. Recent history suggests that if Obama tanks, the Clintons will remain standing - somehow. They remain the one couple that can steal the spotlight. A cautious, please everyone, President without a candidate Clinton or Palin to rough up, stands little chance. Nor does intellect trump muscle in a dangerous world. The 24 hour media is merciless and the strain is already - or rather, finally - showing.
Clinton's stature grew all year. Obama's flatlined in April and it took a massive shove from the DNC and the media to get him over the top in August and a financial meltdown in October to the finish line. A good transition has been helpful. But it has also raised expectations to an absurd level.
As a political observer, I admire many of Obama's picks. It seems Obama understood better than the rest of us that "Change" was a powerful slogan and nothing else. I can't think of one appointment that suggests real change. Many are, however, powerful insiders. They will get something done. It just won't be new.
As a man with political opinions - Obama's picks are hilarious. The American Left has been left out in the cold. My politics aside, I take deep satisfaction in how much the alleged Left has been ditched. There will be no liberal administration. American Progressives, after a smug moment on 1/20, please retreat to your corners and continue whining.
I also don't expect the "Thank God Bush is gone" meme to last long. Bush has been gone for a while.
2009 is going to be very bumpy. Hold tight.
Labels: 2009
posted by John Smart at
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
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