It's over.

Sometime in late September of 08 I wrote here that the election was over. Obama would win and that was that. Scandals and associations that would have sunk any other politician were poo-pooed by the media to such a degree that it became utterly clear that the establishment candidate in 2008 was BHO. They would have him in the WH come hell or high water.

I got some grief from McCain/Palin supporters for that post. But it was just a prediction and a pretty easy one at that.

My love/hate relationships with predictions goes on. Here's one: The heath care debate is over. The establishment won. Everything from here on out is theater. From the LA TIMES:

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), a centrist, said after a recent party caucus that broad agreement had developed to shore up Medicare subsidies for prescription drugs and to make it harder for insurance companies to limit coverage based on preexisting conditions. "The prospects for incremental improvement are still reasonably good," said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster close to the congressional leadership. "But there's a lot more realism about how hard this is."...
The political price: Any bipartisan agreement would probably abandon a proposal from liberals to create a government-sponsored insurance option as an alternative to private health insurance...

What this means is simple: Some regulation on the worst parts of the health insurance industry will be put in place. That's it. More people will get insurance because pre-existing condition denials will be banned. This is good. Drug prices will not be regulated. Obama already caved there. If there is a battle in the Fall it will be over mandating health insurance. The insurance industry loves this so much the cries of tyranny from Conservatives will suddenly go silent on this point. Money is king after all.

Bayh's statement signals that Obama's central promise in this arena - a public option - is dead. The progressive caucus in the House will have a hissy but at the end of the day enough will vote for something they can call reform. In the more liberal districts challenges from the Left may emerge. They will be rendered irrelevant quickly by the DNC's cash. Most in the Progressive caucus will assess the landscape and cave like Obama.

The sound and fury over the next few months will signify nothing. Both parties will use the debate to get their bases in a lather. The GOP will decry government interference. The Democrats will rail against "Big Insurance" and corporate malfeasance.When the dust settles the system we have now will be in place with a few tweaks around the edges. ( In fact the insurance companies will be in a stronger position.) Everyone will claim victory. The end.

Some readers here will applaud this prediction. Some will not. My position is not the point of this post. It is a prediction. I've made a couple here. McCain would lose. Obama will fall below 50% in September (I said June originally...but I allowed myself to cheat in March.) And the one above....sort of...the facts are already out there. Like Obama's election victory I'm more or less stating the obvious and calling it a prediction.

I'm perfectly content with the possibility I am wrong. We shall see.

Web Bots for breakfast

If you are in a certain type of gloomy, doomy morning mood you will get off on what is linked here. (pdf), the "web bot" predictions for 2009. The web bot computer program predicts future events based on the use of language on the internet. The 2 men behind this say they have correctly predicted major events including 9/11, the '04 tsunami, and the 2008 financial meltdown. I have not found any proof otherwise, but I have not looked hard for any. They did predict a pandemic in 2009 - though they stated it would be in the Fall. The concept itself is fascinating. I believe in Jung's collective unconscious. Therefore I assume one could make reasonably accurate guesses of future human caused events based on what a goodly chunk of us have on our minds consistently. Predicting earthquakes and such...not so sure...but, again, why not? Intuition is powerful stuff - probably hardwired after millions of years of evolution.

And, as we all know, the world does not end until December 21, 2012, (around 3pm Pacific Standard Time - ruining the last episodes of both Oprah and Judge Judy.) So we still have some time for distractions such as the Web Bots.

The most intriguing predictions for 09? The "summer of hell", "global coastal events" in May - that would be tomorrow, the decline of the markets through Feb 09 - they were correct here, the destruction of the U.S. dollar. There are even worse tidings in the report. (I make few predictions myself, as my ego is too tender. I called the election for Obama in early October but that was not exactly psychic.)

The web bots are certainly more reality based than Nostradamus, and probably have a better record of correct prediction than nearly all mainstream economists.

A review

Donna Darko has posted an invaluable resource for close Obama watchers and real liberals. (see, I included most everyone!) Obama averages one alarming act a day is the name of her ongoing post.

Obama did something that should be alarming to progressives every day for the past 70 days. The articles below from January 15-March 25 are in reverse chronological order and the 70 acts are bolded and numbered. It's easy to find one each day. Taken together, it's staggering.

I suggest a perusal.

This brings me to my post for the night. A review of myself. I shall be biased. (Hard not to.)How have my assumptions about BHO worked out over the past year? I was never for Obama. I liked him after his 2004 Dem convention speech. I hoped he would stay in the Senate and get some needed experience. Further, I am a Clinton loyalist. That loyalty deepened and broadened during Hillary's campaign last year.

When it became apparent after Iowa last year that some very powerful people were pulling strings for Obama I began to look deeper - in the honest hope that I could get on board. As I've said 1000 times before: Looking closely at Obama is a disturbing avocation. The man is one of the cagiest politicians to appear in our history.

Quickly this blog took on some basic themes that I list below:

1. Obama is a fraud.
2. Obama ran a dirty campaign. This was co-signed, and egged on by a foolish, deceitful, biased media.
3. Obama did not/does not have the experience to be President.
4. Obama's campaign relied on sexism.
5. Obama would do great harm to the Democratic Party.

Further I asserted that something largely unforeseen would decide the election. (I stated this in August, early September.) By October, I predicted an Obama win to the distress of a number of readers.

So how do these bullet points look now?

Number 1: Obama is a fraud. There is excessive evidence to back this assertion up. His connection to the truth during the campaign was often nebulous. Asserting he chaired Senate committees that he had nothing to do with. Implying the Kennedy's were responsible for his father's arrival in the U.S. These are not tall tales. They are lies told to fit a fictitious narrative. I have also stated ad nasueum that Obama was misleading people on Iraq, based on a mysterious speech he gave many years ago that no one recorded.

This, too, has proven to be the case. Obama's stance on Iraq now is not discernible from Bush's post "surge" policy. He is less bellicose than W but the withdrawal is back loaded - and "dependent on the commanders on the ground". Sound familiar? We shall see. But "a brigade a month" starting in January of 2009 is long forgotten. Some have documented no less than 17 different Obama stances on Iraq. This issue, now largely over run by economic concerns, should not be forgotten as it was the motor of his campaign in the primaries. Clinton was routinely lambasted by Obots for stating she would do what Obama is now doing.

On other points his fraudulence has become more and more apparent over the last 12 months. I go back to some stand by instances to illustrate because they are major indicators of a man with no core. The FISA wiretapping and the Public Financing flip flops both go to core liberal principles. Obama's reversals here were the single most telling moments of his campaign. They go to his character. No liberal in their right mind should have tolerated these betrayals. Yet, the hand jobs from the faux Left continued. I won't repeat my feelings about the "hope and change" horseshit except to say it is clearer everyday that it was horseshit.

2. Obama ran a dirty campaign. This is all but self evident. The caucus packing was ignored by the media.

3. Obama did not/does not have the experience to be President.
After many promises to "hit the ground running" Obama's first legislative accomplishment happened not on "day one" but Day 25. And it was a mess that got 3 GOP votes. The banking plan did not appear until this week. He made outright fools of all of us with his treatment of the The Browns. I have no doubt that he's smart enough to learn on the job - but that is not what he promised.
4. Obama's campaign relied on sexism. Duh. If you still do not see this you are willfully in denial. Enjoy it. But know your sisters, mothers, and daughters will pay for last year's regression into bigotry for a very long time.

Obama and his media cheerleaders were nothing short of disgusting. No, we should not "get over it" any more than Black Americans should forget Strom Thurmond's 1948 campaign for President.
5. Obama would do great harm to the Democratic Party.
After 2 months the GOP is now running ahead of the Democrats in generic "party" polls. This is astounding given the last 3 years. I did not think the reversal would happen so quickly. It may reverse again. The GOP is hardly attractive. Nevertheless, Obama has shown no stomach for a fight on basic progressive ideals. What will be sunk before this is over is liberal ideals and liberal ideas. For a generation. This assertion depends on time. But the votes are coming in. Noam Chomsky, Paul Krugman and Howard Zinn have all blasted Obama from the Left already. In varying areas these three men understand one thing: Obama has, and will continue to, betray the Left.

On the other points: The financial collapse was unforeseen by some. It did come as a shock to the majority and it did decide the election.

One last "out on a limb" prediction I made: Obama would fall below 50% in the polls by June. I'd probably go with September now if I had a do over.