In economic terms I consider Paul Krugman my wife. The steady and sure unapologetic liberal with the Nobel prize around his neck. He hails from my home country- The New Deal - and I trust his gut like I trust few others.
However, in my own midlife political crisis I have, of late, taken an economic mistress...one vibrant and cocksure bloke named Peter Schiff. A man utterly convinced that monstrous inflation is right around the corner. To hear Schiff is - it seems - to hear common sense. Of course all this dollar printing is going to cause inflation...
Then Krugman mentions in his steady, unpretentious way, thatit looks like deflation is coming. I don't understand the details but Krugman does - and I trust him...too...
The most damaging addiction of those on the Left is not taxing and spending - it is condescension.
I must admit, the Tea Parties set for this week have not been of much interest to me until Krugman weirdly joined up with the condescension class bent of looking down their snouts at them. He also misreads the impulse behind the movement. It saddens me to see him participate in what Kunstler calls media "auditing" . The meme in the "liberal" media is that the Tea Parties are either meaningless or sponsored by the DARK SIDE - read: Fox News and ultra Right wingers who live in gated enclaves watching CSPAN while steam comes out of their ears, all the while writing checks to hatchet men. These criticisms from the Maddows of the Media are leveled without the slightest question as to where Chicago Slim's millions came from. A mystery, indeed.
Creating a "movement" with Astroturfing ( public relations campaigns seeking to create the impression of being spontaneous "grassroots" behavior,) works if the movement wants to be created. That is - it has a ready audience. At the end of the day people need to show up to the "astroturfed movement". If enough do, it is a success. At that point, there is no contradiction between "astroturfing" and "grass roots" eruptions. If 20,000 show up to the Tea Party on Wednesday in NY it is because they chose to, not because Fox News made them.
My sense is that there is a large audience very willing to hear that American tax dollars are being flushed away and/or spent on saving the fraud class. This is hardly revelatory. Condemning taxes is one of our driving narratives in the United States. The financial fiasco has given this storyline a new life.
I see no difference between what Rogers Ailes and his allies are allegedly doing with the tea parties and what Huffington, MSNBC and David Axelrod did last year with Obama. Creating, then tapping into an audience is what movements are. Leaders tell people what they ought to think - all the time. People then- for the most part - either incorporate or reject the information fed to them. This is not devious in and of itself. Those doing the astroturfing may have devious ends in mind to be sure. The astroturfing rules of the Obama Pods were devious by nature.
- This man is the answer to your frustrations. - You may not question anything about this man. If you do you are the enemy. - Anyone opposed to this man is stupid and probably evil.
By those rules the tea party "astroturfing" is positively ethical. Regardless, the proof will be in the pudding. If they are successful it is because they hit a nerve not because they created one to hit.
The alternative to this - dismissing and silencing all such top down organizing - is far worse. I would rather have people acting as if they still believe we live in a republic than sinking and seething into a realization that they may not. Then pitchforks, and later rocket launchers, come into play.
The fact is real grassroots movements rarely erupt in this country. When they do the distance between the eruption and violence is short. I lived through a spontaneous "grassroots" movement in Los Angeles after the Rodney King verdict. No one astroturfed those 4 days. And let's be clear - it started as a race riot - but within 12 hours it was a class riot. In most major cities we are closer to this happening now than anytime in the last 70 years.
If people believe we are being trashed, lied to, ripped off and conned by those taxing us I say: protest. Do it. Imaginatively and peacefully.
What Maddow and the rest really can't abide it not the impulse - it is that conservatives are behind it. I'm quite sure I would not agree with most of the "tea partiers" politics- but I support the fundamental right to protest.
Cannonfire hits at a point I have been throwing into posts - sometimes at random - for a year.
Obama will destroy the Left.
The country thinks that Obama is some sort of lefty. He isn't one, but that's what people think. If his plan fails - and it will - all left-ish solutions (real left and faux left) will be discredited.
Paul Krugman continues to bravely attack the thinking of the Obama Administration from the Left.
Why I am still a liberal. When I say I am a liberal I am talking about a broad ideology that has a basis in both classical liberalism, and some New Deal and Great society policies.
I wiggle around about in my own beliefs, especially after last year, but fundamentally they are - randomly:
1. A well educated (classic liberal Western education is what I mean) population is a national concern.
2. The Federal government has a place in some domestic arenas. Head Start and Social Security for example. I see no other way in an industrial or post industrial society.
3. Legal equality for all is the purview of the Federal government. Therefore I think the ERA should still be passed, Gays must be given the same rights as Heterosexuals - including marriage.
4. The Constitution must not be seen as something to be "strictly constructed" but "strictly interpreted." Flexibility was built into by the founders. Not a lot - but some.
5. Overseas military intervention must always be a last resort.
6. The second amendment is interpretable. No one has the "right to bear arms" in total. I can't carry a stinger missile around town. Therefore the kind of arms a citizen can own should be legislated. Arguments over the extent of control are good and healthy.
7. Money is not speech. Rich people do not get "more speech" than poor people under the 1st Amendment. All elections should be financed publicly. Everything rides on this. As long as money is the primary concern of our representatives the system will sputter and be unresponsive. A fine example fell on Dodd's head this week.
8. The right to terminate a pregnancy belongs to the pregnant person until the fetus is viable. The best way to prevent unwanted pregnancy is intelligent sex education and accessible birth control. Telling humans to abstain from sex is not an answer and never has been. Obviously, society has an interest in discouraging the young from sexual activity. This is a matter of placing value on human sexuality - not simply saying "Don't do that" which any horny teen will tell you is ridiculous. Sexual behavior is not degrading. We have comodified sex and degraded human sexuality, which has cheapened sex. The inability for many to accept the normal homosexual behavior of a certain percentage of any population is a good example of how thick the denial is.
I no longer support Roe V Wade. It is time to have this arguments in the states or amend the Constitution.
9. Capitalism controlled to a degree from excess by a freely elected Federal government (see 7) is the best system we've yet devised. (The bad banks should have been nationalized by Obama for a year.) Capitalism is important. Democracy is more important. Over the last 50 years we've reversed the priority - become consumers first and citizens second.
10. The government on all levels has almost no business interfering in the private lives of citizens.
11. The wall between church and state must be very high.
That is it for now. I do not know what else to call myself given the above list. Certainly not a conservative. And not a faux liberal so in vogue now. Libertarians have their appeal. I have no doubt I'd become one if (when) everything collapses. Until then I am a liberal. Feel free to tihnk up another label.
ICountry: It is a crappy time to be a country that begins with I. Iran, Iraq, Iceland, now Ireland.
Soup For You!: Orlov on the next few years. The theory states that the United States and the Soviet Union will have collapsed for the same reasons, namely: a severe and chronic shortfall in the production of crude oil (that magic addictive elixir of industrial economies), a severe and worsening foreign trade deficit, a runaway military budget, and ballooning foreign debt. I call this particular list of ingredients "The Superpower Collapse Soup."
Bristol Talks: Abstinence is NOT realistic. Bristol, you are correct. Conservatives are WAY off base on human sexuality. OR more on point they are FEAR based. Talking openly, removing shame about sexual desires, (including Gay and Bi impulses- homosexual behaviour with some members of a population is normal and healthy in many mammals.) being realistic and helpful about sex, STDs, and having contraception available is realistic. To think that human biology would change just because we invented High School in the 1800s, or because some ancient agricultural society handed us down a series of edicts that made sense TO THEM - is idiotic.
Music: From the 60s. Okay this was released in 1970. But it may be the last moment in American culture before irony was dumbed down completely. Imagine a pop song about a personal existential collapse in 2009. Country gets close on occasion. But Hip Hop is merely about being horny all the time. Rap is about giving legions of the talentless the impression they matter. Both have long since worn out their usefulness....and need to go.
Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.
Japanese Proverb.
Krugman: Mr. Obama has to be stronger looking forward. Otherwise, the verdict on this crisis might be that no, we can't (Yes, I added the "bold".)
The zombie like repetition of "Yes, We Can" is going to haunt like "Mission Accomplished" before all this is over.
Krugman goes after everyone in his piece called Failure to Rise.
So far the Obama administration's response to the economic crisis is all too reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s
I return to my theme here of late - that this foolish obsession with "reaching across the aisle" - that no doubt goes to Obama's image of himself as a "healer" or some such nonsense - is his Achilles heal. Conservatives never worry about reaching across any aisles - this is a Democratic affliction. On 1/20/09 Obama had a rare opportunity in American politics: A chance to change the game completely. Reagan had this chance and he seized it. Obama fumbled. In war, during natural disasters, and with overriding social concerns, coming together is a good thing. In matters of policy - conviction and the opposing world views of the battling sides should fight it out. I am a free market ideologue when it comes to ideas. Let the best ones win.
Half ass snarking 2 weeks late is no way to lead.
Actually, let me step back and say this more clearly: The game is changing regardless. Obama had the chance to get ahead of the curve - and he chose to punt to Democratic hacks, allowing the defeated party to rise from the grave in 3 days - more or less. This, in turn, is the direct result of being inexperienced.
The game is changing. I have no idea exactly where we are heading. I sense( I write I sense so much because I am, in fact, working with my hunches here. I see no benefit in pretending otherwise.) we are now experiencing the ugly backside of globalization and the results of allowing our nation to become overextended. The largest entitlement all Americans have enjoyed in the last 30 years is living beyond our means with no consequences.
That is until the artfully timed financial cave in of late 2008. We sold our souls for cheap coffee makers, flat screen TVs and SUVs.
Lest anyone think I am losing my perspective on Obama let me add: I believe Obama was chosen to protect the elites as much as possible as we slowly sink. His skill set has been honed for this job since - at least - his lost year in Pakistan.
I sometimes write about him as if I believe he would ever confront the elites who brought him. I don't. He's an errand boy, sent by mafia dons. I know this. Pretending we live in a democracy is the only out small democrats have left, short of rebellion. We pretend we have a say and the politicians pretend to listen to us - to paraphrase the Soviet era's "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us."
Nevertheless, A population that believes it has power - sometimes, when pushed, still seizes it. The final power is always with the people. Even the smug elites understand this.
Part of BHO's job is to pretend we can return to the time of living beyond our means with no consequences. Or as Cheney, protector of the elites in the last administration put it: The American way of life is not negotiable. Oh yes it is, Dick. It is being renegotiated right now.
America and the world is being forcibly downsized. Obama's job is to engineer a controlled demolition.
As for my "sense" about the downside of globalization and America and the West's overreach I direct you here and here for backup.
Movies: Very good writing about some movies you may not have seen but should - here.
Dressing for the endtimes: The well of souls is empty. Further evidence that we have become almost irredeemably decadent and God ought to be in the last stages of smote preparation mode about now. Food Network did an entire show, quite seriously, in which designers made dresses out of chocolate and then chocolate coated models strutted the cat walk. Ah me...Rome, we are catching up so very fast.
Minor Prophesy: I predicted at least twice last year that when the MSM turned on Obama that the NY Times would be first to jump ship. I would like to gloat: here and here. Mr. Obama's postpartisan yearnings may also explain why he didn't do something crucially important: speak forcefully...
Music: Pop from the 90s. My friend Javier correctly mocks me for loving this song. The silly lyrics in Get Here, sung by Oleta Adams, are almost inexcusably bad. Still I love this song.
Since I have very little love and absolutely no trust in Obama it may seem odd that I am giving advice in this post. So be it. It is an odd time to be in this country and getting odder by the minute.
Obama blew the first two weeks of his presidency by trying to play the "moderate" with the Right. He's done himself real damage. Damage I believe will be ongoing. Barring an immediate national crisis (which will no doubt come soon enough) the first two weeks of this administration will have been the most important this year.
BHO made the mistake modern Democratic Presidents always make: he ran from the Left, tried making nice with the GOP, and therefore played directly into their hands.
Let me interject here forcefully that I do not trust either party and am deeply ambivalent about the stimulus bill. This post is about power and politics - not economics.
By trying to get some of the GOP on board he's degraded his own bill. He did not hit the ground running, he hit it backslapping. He's weakened his bill, tried to make it bipartisan, and yet - should it not have a quick effect - the fault will stand land on his desk. Politically, it is a no win situation for Obama and he created it by not claiming and owning a core vision, then taking that vision to a Congress that by all rights should have been his to steamroll. At least it was on January 20th.
The blame will not be spread around if his weakened bill fails to produce a turnaround quickly. He'll get it. The GOP played on his worst character defect, the compulsive need to be seen as a unifier, then weakened the bill and along the way found they their sea legs again - almost immediately after suffering a severe defeat. The Right is on the verge of the quickest resurgence imaginable after last November's debacle.
Not only did he allow the GOP room to grab the megaphone, he handed over the House's version to Pelosi - who apparently allowed it to be turned into to a cavalcade of pork. The trouble here is not the pork, one man's pork is another's cash flow - and it is a spending bill after all. The trouble is that the bill has no centering idea. It is a mess. There is no vision. The bill is not a well considered meal plan as much as it is a carb laden buffet. The obvious reason: Neither Obama or Pelosi have any vision.
The belief in "bipartisanship" is no longer operative. The world views of liberals and conservatives are at odds on the most basic level. Ignoring this is not helpful or healthy. It is foolish. On January 20th, Obama needed to announce in very certain terms "This is the way it is going to be." Explained his vision, then acted on it. ( I realize the last sentence presumes that Obama had a vision past winning - which he did not.) On January 20th, 1981 Reagan intoned "Government cannot solve our problems. Government is the problem." Like it or not, that, my friends, is a vision for a nation.
On January 20th, 2008, Obama said: Can't we all just get along? The answer is usually NO.It defies logic and history to think otherwise. It is why we have elections every four years, and not civil wars. Thank God. One side wins. There is no point in ignoring that obvious truth.
He did not win by a landslide. He did win a mandate. But mandates are useless without a vision.
Paul Krugman, the liberal economist, understands the mistake Obama has made on the stimulus bill. Count me among those who think that the president made a big mistake in his initial approach, that his attempts to transcend partisanship ended up empowering politicians who take their marching orders from Rush Limbaugh.
Obama did finally go on the offensive last night in a speech to Democrats. He may recover his groove. Still, he's frittered away time and political capital, given the Right new life, and damaged his own standing by trying to play patty cake with people who want him to fail. Yes, they do. THEY WANT HIM TO FAIL. Don't think for a second that power brokers in either party want anything past the next victory. Except in war, those days are long gone in this country.
However this messy stimulus bill turns out - it is his. He owns it. A true leader - in the position he was in on January 20th-would have gotten everything he wanted. Not a steaming pile of misguided half measures.
