Watching Dick Cheney and the Obama administration engage in yet another round of bastard slapping is, I'll admit, highly entertaining. This is not said to diminish the life and death reality of the issue at hand - Afghanistan. I say it to point out an absurdity in the middle distance: Both sides seem powerless. Cheney is. Obama loves his power until he needs to make a decision that will displease some faction. So, at least for the moment, Obama has created a sense of powerlessness for himself on this issue . The impending Afghanistan decision lingers around him wherever he goes. Obviously, I can not know if Obama fears tough decisions...but it sure as hell seems that way.
Both Cheney's unwillingness to sail into the sunset and Obama's increasingly indecisive streak are an interesting clash. One man is a know it all with a horrendous track record, the other avoids tough decisions.
I've no patience for the "blame Bush" brigade in the White House. Even in those areas where Bush lead us astray, it's Obama's duty to lead and not whine about what he got himself into. The man wanted the job. Then again, Cheney is a piece of work. The former V.P. giving anyone advice on Afghanistan is like getting marriage counseling from a Gabor sister. Cheney and Bush screwed the Afghan pooch...big time...if there is one arena where Obama can rightfully blame the bushies it is Afghanistan.
On the other side -
What Cheney exposes in Obama is an indecisiveness that belies his stance as wise and above it all. ( Does Obama have H.I.D. - Hesitantly Indecisive Disorder? )Asking for a 6 month review of Afghan policy after he took office was all well and good. Having the review land on his desk in August, then ineptly kicking the can down the road was foolish.
The mitigating factors here are the leak of the report to the press and the corrupt Afghan elections. Neither, in my estimation, should have been surprises and neither should have caused a delay in Obama executing the task at hand. That the Afghan government is corrupt is not news. Why was a corrupt election treated as a point of consternation? Of course, American soldiers are fighting in a corrupt nation. Of course, the long arm of American power might have to slap Karzai around a bit. How can this be a surprise to Obama Administration officials? Forcing Karzai into a run -off ought to have no bearing of our military policy. Obama has to decide on American policy regardless who wins. I repeat: Afghan governmental corruption should surprise no one.
As for the leak - well, in D.C. a leak is like shit - it happens. This particular leak can't explain the last 2 months - that look for all the world like stalling. One ought to be able to assume that Obama was up to date on the facts in Afghanistan and McCrystal's report held few surprises. One also ought to be able to assume that Obama discussed all the eventualities with the pertinent administration players before the report was due. Any good chief executive would have.
Right?
Or are we to glean that Obama ordered the review, then walked away, believing he'd bought himself the better part of a year to deal with other things?
Cheney's value in snarking at Obama publicly is not in molding a policy discussion. He has no credibility on this issue. However, he does remind us that Obama should be further along on this issue by now.
Here's my quick take: This is a very large trial balloon. My hunch is that Holder knows enough to be deeply disturbed by what went on. He also knows an investigation would fly in the face of his boss's stated goal of "moving forward."
Many House Democrats would welcome a prosecutor investigating possible criminality. As would the Left wing of the Democratic Party. Almost no one else would. Not Obama. Not many powerful Democrats in the Senate who fear a major agenda derailment would result. And certainly no Republicans want to see Bush era advisers deposed. Politically an investigation would be a trap for Obama as much as it is a blow to Bush/Cheney adminstration figures and the CIA. Obama would be in the strikingly difficult position of being in opposition to his own Justice Department, the CIA and much of his base. Further, if malfeasance is uncovered and made public the President would be hounded by a question this POTUS does not want to answer:
Would you do the same thing if we were attacked again?
The answer - whatever it is - will enrage someone. Either the Left who wants Cheney punished. Or the Right who will tag Obama as a wimp. (A tag that would stick and have staying power.)
Also, don't think Cheney and his supporters won't fight fire with conflagration. The former VP has made it abundantly clear that he brooks no quarter. He'll come out guns blazin. Cheney won the first round. I see no reason to believe he wouldn't win the second. In order for Cheney to "lose" any information would have to offend our sensibilities to the point of horror - which would in turn inflame the country's enemies which would, in turn, land on the White House's front porch. Whether an investigation is right or wrong is not the point here. The point IS whether Obama/Axelrod could possibly tolerate one. As far as I can tell the answer is NO.
The CIA won't take kindly to an investigation either. Obama can ill afford to aggravate the men and women in Langley.
Holder may truly feel an investigation is warranted. Or he may be flexing some muscle and attempting to carve out some independence from Obama. Or both.
If a prosecutor is actually named I will be amazed. I suspect Obama will quash this one way or another. Even if it means sending his friend/Attorney General to the dog house. Obama is a political animal down to his bone marrow. There is not enough of a political upside to an investigation. Actually, since the Left is now essentially moot anyway - there is NO upside.
As predicted round one goes to Cheney. A large majority - 65% - of Americans do not want Gitmo closed. The lesson here is to avoid listening to the MSM when it gets a hold of a meme (Cheney unpopular! Cheney bad!) that does not hold up to even cursory examination. Much less a basic gut check. Disliking Cheney does not equate to distrusting him on national security. The MSM and Obama-sphere exhibited its usual thoughtless glee in attacking Cheney every time he spoke. Most Americans agree with Cheney on Gitmo. It will be interesting to see how far Obama pushes the "close Gitmo" meme. One is within reason to wonder if he really ever intended to close it.
(Disclosure - I am in the minority on this issue.)
I am sick of Cheney. That's not new. I was sick of Cheney before I was born. Having said that I do wonder what he is up to. For a while now my theory has been that for the last 8 years Cheney was - in effect - President until sometime around Katrina. The man behind the curtain pulling the strings (is there another metaphor I can fit into this sentence?), perfectly content to allow Georgie to enjoy the perks of office while he ruled the roost...(Yes! A metaphor trifecta!) By the time the ill wins of Katrina blew he'd gotten most of what he wanted: The invasion of Iraq, a windfall for Haliburton, insanely expanded powers for the executive branch...Katrina hit and Cheney said "You're up, George!" Then with his security blanket gone with the wind, W's ineptitude was flapping in the wind, visible to all.
So my theories on Cheney's emergence in the early months of Obama's term are three fold - obvious, angry, or conspiratorial. I do not know which rings truest.
Obvious: The GOP has no one capable or willing to take Obama on right now. Cheney is deeply committed to and believes in the changes he wrought during his 2 terms. He felt, with clear reason, that Obama would - or might - dismantle the national security apparatus Cheney implemented. Mr. Obama certainly talked a good game on this front. There was reason to believe he might roll back the civil liberties incursions of the Bush years, and Obama did announce the closing of Gitmo early on. Granted, he had no plan so the announcement was, as per usual for Obi, all smoke and no fire.
Angry: Cheney is unpopular but he does not give a sh*t because he is angry. He is pissed off at W for not pardoning Scooter, he's pissed that he got no respect for "keeping America safe for seven years." (Though, he forgets that all W's men and women ignored the advice of the Clinton team and the warnings in the Summer of 2001.) Cheney is not going to wait for a major Obama screw up in security. (One is coming, my friends, WATCH.) The angry old man's moment is now and he is shrewd enough to know it.
Conspiratorial: In keeping my jaundiced eye trained on the MSM - I can't escape the sense that this Cheney/Obama show is concocted. Cheney yet again playing the role of bad cop and Obama the "good" cop. Cheney is out of power - but he is outflanking Obama and the Democrats. (No, I don't think polls now matter on this issue. Disliking Cheney is a national pastime. We've been trained to snort in his direction.)
Obama is pulling one of his classic stunts: talking a good game to distract his supporters, and, in actuality, not changing Bush policy much at all. The shoving match occupying the media is producing little movement in reality. The chances of Gitmo closing anytime soon are waning. Obama has blinked on military tribunals, his Justice department has shifted to the Right of Bush on civil liberties, and his administration is towing the Bush line on Abu Ghraib. Finally, no one will be prosecuted from the former administration. What is the point of this "fight"?
At the end of this tussle detainees will either be in Cuba or super ultra maximum security federal prisons in the states. Housing these people here is creepy and politically dumb, but not a substantial risk.
Frankly, I do not know why Obama has allowed himself to be sucked into this debate. His policies are not different in substance from Bush's and chances are good he'll lose the argument with Cheney anyway. One attack and Cheney wins going away. Does Obama really believe he's right? Doubtful. Obama never picks a fight on core beliefs. He flip flops if he is going to look bad. That's his pattern.
So what are we left with? Dueling politicians playing a high stakes game, with an upside for both. Cheney gets to fill the GOP vacuum - solidifying its base. Obama gets to play the "wise and moral leader" taking on the difficult issues - at least when the TelePrompTer is booted up. He gets the added bonus of taking on a media punching bag.
I don't buy Obama's posturing here. I DO buy Cheney's - which is hardly comforting.
The smart thing would have been to ignore Cheney and tell his legion of MSM lapdogs to do the same.
This is fascinating to watch. Obama, the President, is in the odd position of having to speechify scholarly explanations for his wobbles. While, quite frankly, Cheney appears more Presidential. Cheney is positioned perfectly for a large, loud TOLD YA SO if anything scary happens.
Dick and dickless duel:Obama and Cheney compete today. Cheney is facinating right now. Like him or not, agree or not, he, with the help of Pelosi, is reviving the GOP brand...The smug and entitled at the big DEM blogs are missing this even at it unfolds before their eyes.
Obama throws another middle finger to liberals. And finally the most ardent pods are coming to. Rick Warren will be giving the invocation at the inauguration. John Avarosis, one of the most flatulent, fraudulent, liberals on the scene wrote this. "Rick Warren has not sat on the sidelines in the fight for basic equality and fairness. In fact, Rev. Warren spoke out vocally in support of Prop 8 in California..."
My sympathy for bozos like Avarosis is...wait...I have no sympathy for bozos like Avarosis who spent a year of their lives jacking off Barack Obama, deluding themselves, and rampaging with the relentless, woman hating fury of Huns at a brothel full of virgins.
There will be no new age of progressive thought in D.C. There will be no inclusion of Gay Americans. There will be no new feminist majority. We already know there will be no public financing - the only real way to clean up elections. We already know that spying on Americans will go forth unfettered by pesky search warrants. The economy will be overseen by Wall Street imbeds. Foreign policy by hawks that Cheney approves of...
The ongoing right of women to end a pregnancy should they choose- something thrown at those of us who opposed Obama all along with insane rants about the Supreme Court- will be THE ONLY remotely left wing ideal that should stay in place during the next four years.
Unless health care is dealt with within 3 months don't expect anything to change on that front either. We have no money.
Obama is a fraud. He is pathological in his need to throw the bird to those who help and those who oppose him. Another way he is just like W. At least W came from somewhere. Obama is merely an errand boy sent by grocery clerks. The bill will be collected - in the form of inflation.
There are inclusive Chrisitan ministers by the score in this nation. (Ed Bacon at my church is a fine example of a man who leads a large flock and understands Jesus's message of inclusion. )Anyone of them giving the invocation would have been a brave and forward looking statement. Instead Obama chose a Right Wing ideologue. A man who uses religion to denigrate 10% of the population. Sure he dresses it up - but this only makes the pain inflicted by his retrograde views worse. Obama choosing Warren is a purposeful attack on his Left Flank.
Would McCain/Palin have been worse for liberals? No. Absolutely not. We know exactly who they are. Idiots on the left who never examined Obama, who never questioned Obama, now have four years of excuse making and disappointment to look forward to.
Gee, at least he's black.
Obama fooled the morons on the Obama Left. And those morons bought it.
