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Friday, May 22, 2009

Dick and Barry ride the newscycle.

I am sick of Cheney. That's not new. I was sick of Cheney before I was born. Having said that I do wonder what he is up to. For a while now my theory has been that for the last 8 years Cheney was - in effect - President until sometime around Katrina. The man behind the curtain pulling the strings (is there another metaphor I can fit into this sentence?), perfectly content to allow Georgie to enjoy the perks of office while he ruled the roost...(Yes! A metaphor trifecta!) By the time the ill wins of Katrina blew he'd gotten most of what he wanted: The invasion of Iraq, a windfall for Haliburton, insanely expanded powers for the executive branch...Katrina hit and Cheney said "You're up, George!" Then with his security blanket gone with the wind, W's ineptitude was flapping in the wind, visible to all.

So my theories on Cheney's emergence in the early months of Obama's term are three fold - obvious, angry, or conspiratorial. I do not know which rings truest.

Obvious: The GOP has no one capable or willing to take Obama on right now. Cheney is deeply committed to and believes in the changes he wrought during his 2 terms. He felt, with clear reason, that Obama would - or might - dismantle the national security apparatus Cheney implemented. Mr. Obama certainly talked a good game on this front. There was reason to believe he might roll back the civil liberties incursions of the Bush years, and Obama did announce the closing of Gitmo early on. Granted, he had no plan so the announcement was, as per usual for Obi, all smoke and no fire.

Angry: Cheney is unpopular but he does not give a sh*t because he is angry. He is pissed off at W for not pardoning Scooter, he's pissed that he got no respect for "keeping America safe for seven years." (Though, he forgets that all W's men and women ignored the advice of the Clinton team and the warnings in the Summer of 2001.) Cheney is not going to wait for a major Obama screw up in security. (One is coming, my friends, WATCH.) The angry old man's moment is now and he is shrewd enough to know it.

Conspiratorial: In keeping my jaundiced eye trained on the MSM - I can't escape the sense that this Cheney/Obama show is concocted. Cheney yet again playing the role of bad cop and Obama the "good" cop. Cheney is out of power - but he is outflanking Obama and the Democrats. (No, I don't think polls now matter on this issue. Disliking Cheney is a national pastime. We've been trained to snort in his direction.)

Obama is pulling one of his classic stunts: talking a good game to distract his supporters, and, in actuality, not changing Bush policy much at all. The shoving match occupying the media is producing little movement in reality. The chances of Gitmo closing anytime soon are waning. Obama has blinked on military tribunals, his Justice department has shifted to the Right of Bush on civil liberties, and his administration is towing the Bush line on Abu Ghraib. Finally, no one will be prosecuted from the former administration. What is the point of this "fight"?

At the end of this tussle detainees will either be in Cuba or super ultra maximum security federal prisons in the states. Housing these people here is creepy and politically dumb, but not a substantial risk.

Frankly, I do not know why Obama has allowed himself to be sucked into this debate. His policies are not different in substance from Bush's and chances are good he'll lose the argument with Cheney anyway. One attack and Cheney wins going away. Does Obama really believe he's right? Doubtful. Obama never picks a fight on core beliefs. He flip flops if he is going to look bad. That's his pattern.

So what are we left with? Dueling politicians playing a high stakes game, with an upside for both. Cheney gets to fill the GOP vacuum - solidifying its base. Obama gets to play the "wise and moral leader" taking on the difficult issues - at least when the TelePrompTer is booted up. He gets the added bonus of taking on a media punching bag.

I don't buy Obama's posturing here. I DO buy Cheney's - which is hardly comforting.

The smart thing would have been to ignore Cheney and tell his legion of MSM lapdogs to do the same.

This is fascinating to watch. Obama, the President, is in the odd position of having to speechify scholarly explanations for his wobbles. While, quite frankly, Cheney appears more Presidential. Cheney is positioned perfectly for a large, loud TOLD YA SO if anything scary happens.

And it will.

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