2013???

Conservative Thomas Sowell may have nailed down the duplicity surrounding the President's side of the health care debate in one sentence:

He tried to rush Congress into passing a massive government takeover of the nation's medical care before the August recess-for a program that would not take effect until 2013!

I find that hard to fathom and would like to know if its true. If it is true, Obama, Axelrod and crew are more cynical than even I assumed. The back room Big Pharma deals were gross but expected from No Drama, No Effort, No Real Commitment Obama. If - after all the conjured thunder and lightening on both sides - no reform will be implemented until after the next general election we can all assume that no reform will ever be implemented and this whole "debate" has been an episode of Hee Haw. Lame skits and cheap one liners to distract for an hour or a summer.

If I had to bet on the 2012 general election today I'd throw my cash down for the GOP candidate. Who knows at this point. Still, the power, media and money that massaged BHO into the WH will no doubt have good reason to line up behind Mr. Pawlenty - or whoever- if it means halting health care reform come 2013. The genius chess move here is that if nothing has changed in 2012 Obama will then be able to run on the future AGAIN. This time based in fear not hope - but fear tends to work quite well. The Republicans plan on taking away the heath care reform you don't even have yet! It's so cynical if makes cynics like yours truly cringe.

What,exactly is the point of all this agitation if no reform will become law until after the end of the Mayan calender? WTF? I would ask "How stupid do they think we are?" except I know the answer. They assume we're pretty stupid. Sadly, with good reason. I certainly hope Sowell is incorrect.

At any rate, this is how this debate goes from here on out in a few easy steps:

1. Obama makes a well received, commanding speech in which he is more specific than he's yet been. The bar for specificity is now so low any sentence in the active voice will be roundly applauded. Obots will be over the moon. He smart! He's brilliant! He's God on Earth!

Obama will claim forcefully that he wants a public option. He will not demand it. Therein lies all the information anyone who favors a public option needs. There will be no public option.

2. The media will swoon and all but masturbate on camera. They'll sing Obama's praises for about a week.

3. Sometime within the next 3-4 weeks I'd guess - after the Wednesday speech has faded - the administration will sink the public option. Possibly on a Saturday night in memory of Van Jones. They'll be some blow back from the Left - but by then I suspect the Left will be preoccupied with Afghanistan. The WH will get enough liberals in the House to sign on for passage.

4. Before Christmas (Thanksgiving?) in front of a cavalcade of cameras and Kennedys, Obama will sign a health care "reform" bill. The bulk of which won't take effect until...uh...well...the Pawlenty Administration.

Feel free to bookmark this post to see how close I come to being right.