Legitimate and illegitimate comparisons and the danger of demagogues.

There are a few clips up at Savage Politics tonight. I reccomned a trip over there. They are fierce and have their reasons. One that I will not post here compares Obama with Hitler. The comparison is unfair because we always reference Hitler with the end in mind - not the beginning. Additionally, America in 2008 is not Germany in the 30's, yet. There are increasing signals that we are in very deep trouble economically. And as any one who comes around here knows, I believe the crisis surrounding energy is going to tear this nation apart if people do not wake up and wake up swiftly. The canary in the coalmine is dead and displayed on a pike at every gas station in the land. This country, its economy, its social structure, the health of its citizens, its food supply and anything else you can think of is connected to and centered on access to relatively cheap oil. The era of cheap oil is over. Forever. There are alternatives - but none of them will stop the unravelling of our assumptions. None of them will get food to the markets in our "last minute" supply system. None of them will allow the amount of food production we assume is the norm. None of them will generate the energy that power our cities and towns. None of them will replace the oil used in pharmaceutical production. None of them can fly a plane. None of them can save the suburbs and exurbs.

And none of this should be news to anyone. It's been coming since America peaked in oil production in 1970.

But it is news to nearly everyone. Or will be shortly.

Many good blogs are yelling at the top of their electronic lungs about what is coming regarding peak oil. Find them . Educate yourselves. Begin to think differently - RIGHT NOW. Something drastic is shifting beneath our feet. It is in the beginning of this shifting that the Obama phenomenon was born.

The coming rewrite of our assumptions does not scare me much any longer. It did when I first began to read about Peak Oil. I am not a survivalist - I am a conscious observer, who tries to form opinions based on what I believe to be reliable information. It often is - and sometimes it is not. When I started informing myself on peak oil 4 years ago I was shocked - but compelled to keep going. Here is what the wiser commentators, mostly geologists, oil men, and the US Government itself - google and read the Hirsch Report - were predicting in the late 1990s and early 21st century.

1. The housing market would crater and a mortgage crisis would occur.
Check.
2. Gasoline would experience inflation rates of 50-100%.
Check.
3. Commodities would sky rocket in price.
Check
4. The dollar would either collapse of have a steady decline.
Check.
5. The Airline industry would contract.
Check.
6. Suburbia would become unworkable.
This is now occurring, sometimes brutally.
7. Oil Wars.
Call Iraq what ever kind of war you want - we simply would not be there if the primary Iraqi export was figs or Gameboys - regardless of the brutality of the government. Arguments can be made about the reasons for the invasion, but it is misguided to believe that oil was not a major factor. U.S. troops protected 2 things in the immediate aftermath: The oil ministry in Baghdad and oil fields. The rest of Iraq fell into chaos.
8. Food inflation here. Followed by scarcity in some sections. Food riots. The First World has been immune thus far. But food riots have occured throughout the world this year.
9. Social dislocation. Again - in the US this is now in the "anecdotal" stage. It is not anecdotal in Europe, which is in an even more precarious position than us. Strikes have erupted throughout Britain and the Continent. Banks have failed. Here people are changing habits- and griping. One supply disruption and the taut rope will snap. Griping will become something else entirely.

The predictions get more dire from here and mostly lie ahead. Whether I or anyone likes it, the "Peak Oil" doomsayers have been spot on thus far.

More drilling may occur here. So be it. Anyone who thinks we will find enough oil to run things as we are now is an ostrich. The American way of life is on the block.

So what does scare me? The fact that almost everyone seems to be in a state of paralysis about the end of cheap oil and what it means.

We are ripe for a demagogue to emerge. We have grown one just in time.

One should not compare the Obama phenomenon with the last 6 years of Hilter's reign. It is gross, unfair to Obama, and dishonors the millions who died.

However, - and I have been hesitant to make this leap in electronic print before - a comparison between Germany in 1933 and America in 2008 is increasingly legitimate.

The massive and mindless out pouring of support for an unknown, charismatic leader by those who do not seem to think and are unwilling to rationally debate the pros and cons this leader, the cult like adoration, the stage managing of the rallies, the sloganeering that insists on intellectual nullification, the refusal to question, the scapegoating and attack on those who do, the control of the limited, but effective, message by a compliant press...

The list could probably go on.

I admit freely that the comparison is not entirely fair. Americans are not Germans. We are messier and value individuals over the group instinctively. The scapegoating of Jews was so massive in Germany it still stands alone historically.

But there has been a real attack from the Left on poorer whites. This is at times gleeful. "We don't need them" they are "bitter racists" etc. The empowerment of the "What's the Matter with Kansas" wing of the Left that casually dismisses entire populations should alarm true progressives. Whatever social biases exist in West Virginia, we've never seen such an overt assault on those who labor by the pseudo laborers in the "creative class".

The catalysts for a social meltdown are evident and ready for a trigger event. What scares me about BHO is that he seems to be ahead of the curve. He also is apparently about nothing. His opinions shift with the wind - yet his empty message of change goes on. No one has a solid notion - even now - of what the change will be. It will be "better". That's all we are told.

I've said it before - there is little difference between a happy mob and an angry mob. This is demonstrated every day on blogs with the Obama fanatics. Rational reasons for his candidacy, based on his actual history and accomplishments, are never stated. Attacks on others' characters or polices and adulation of Obama supposed character are the Alpha and Omega. We are to take him as presented, or we are wrong.

Given Obama's new power and the coming social disruptions - and attendant anxiety - this is a recipe for catastrophe. But not of the sort seen in Germany. People are consciously or unconsciously picking sides already. Both sides are strong.

Should Obama win, and proceed to become a transformative, progressive President I will admit on this blog that I was dead wrong. Nothing would please me more than a truly -and traditionally - liberal administration. We have not had one since FDR.

We shall see.