How McCain is losing the November election in June.

With each passing day I feel more and more detached from my Democratic roots. This is good. I can watch a bit more comfortably from the side lines. Obviously, I think Obama is a snake. But getting worked up for McCain is no small task.

Let me give my two cents about the general election so far. McCain is losing the election - right now. He is making one catastrophic misjudgement. The timing of the misjudgement is earlier in McCain's case (then again, everything happens earlier now). It is the same misjudgement that Kerry made in 04 and Dukakis made in 1988. And it is equally foolish.

Obama is quickly taking over the Democratic Party and quickly defining himself to the general electorate. Politics 101: You have to define your opponent before he A. Defines himself. and B. He defines you.

Kerry allowed the swift boat ads to sit in the water (as it were) for 3 weeks before he responded.
Dukakis toddled around for a month while Bush 1 hammered him with Willie Horton.
Both men were then embedded in the minds of many Americans as distrustful and weak and never recovered.

Obama is not going all out negative on McCain. He is going all out to project himself as a man of action. Meanwhile McCain, like Clinton before him, is holding fire, presumably waiting until after the Democratic convention to unload - under the misguided assumption that people do not pay attention until Labor Day. This is WRONG. People are paying attention now.

The desire to be done with the Bush years is so strong that people are already engaged. Maybe not deeply but enough to make some basic judgements and tell pollsters. The pollsters then cue the media, which gets all frothy, - and what a candidate has is called momentum.

The McCain campaign must realize that the next six weeks are as important as the last 2 this year. Unless McCain lands hard on all of Obama's soft spots now and throws him off his game it will be almost impossible to stop him come November.

The Wright tapes had a muted effect on Obama because they appeared in April after many victories and many months of media adulation. Had they appeared in January Clinton would have won.

If McCain believes holding back now and unloading in October is the right strategy he is mistaken. The risk is that he so sullies BHO before the actual nomination that delegates dash back to Clinton at the convention- an unbeatable candidate at this point. But the greater risk is that Obama has solidified a positive image in the public mind that will be hard, if not impossible, to shake.

Pundits claim that negative campaigns turn people off. They are correct. The game is to turn them off the other guy. Well, timed, negative campaigns work. Badly timed negative campaigns backfire.

McCain's main strength against Obama is his experience. Hillary talked about it a lot, but rarely hammered him with it. (the 3 AM ads being one exception). Unless McCain and the RNC define Obama now as too inexperienced and untrustworthy to be President - then it will be too late come the Fall. If Obama makes his acceptance speech unsullied he will be the President. He is too damn good at those events. His machine is too strong to overcome with "whitey tapes" and commercials about Wright. The tapes (if they exist) and ads need to be in circulation now.

Five dollar gas will make bozo the clown a strong candidate against anyone who is associated with Bush.

Having said all that, after watching the Democratic primaries I am not sure the whole thing is not just a scripted show. The winner being chosen a long time ago - in a smoke filled room faraway.

But onward we must push. If we do just have a faux democracy at this point - the only way to get a real one back is to act as if we are empowered.