Who would you vote for?

The Massachusetts special election has become fascinating and is worth a few more thoughts. I play the mental game of "Who would I vote for?" with all notable elections, wherever they are. Until the last few days, I would probably have cast my vote for Coakley. The Curt Shilling remark, while irrelevant to policy matters, was so incredibly stupid it gives me pause. Being a Red Sox fan and running for office in Massachusetts is politics 101. Is Coakley remotely capable of understanding her electorate? It may seem foolish, but not understanding who Shilling is in Boston mythology is disconnect of the first order. She would have been better off saying the Pope is a goof ball.

Politicians kiss babies and swill beer with bar patrons for a reason. It bonds them with those they govern. Coakley's recent stumbles indicate she's a person who doesn't "get it" in a basic way. Or worse, she doesn't care about getting the job now that she's in a real race.

It still seems to me that Coakley will pull out a win. Obama's nonsense about a bank tax this week is being used as a weapon against Brown. This populist bromide might be enough to salvage Coakley. On the other hand, Brown's job in the next 2 days is to hammer at spending, spending, spending. For the next 36 hours the election is about Obama and spending is Obama's weakness.

In the week since I first predicted a Coakley win the tables have turned. Now she must muster every last voter she can get while Brown is in the position of having to shore up a thin lead. The exact opposite of where things stood on Monday. Currently 1 in 5 Dems are saying they will vote for Brown. Obama's job Sunday is to cut that by a few tenths of a point. The independent numbers are probably not budging and the Republicans certainly aren't. In one fly-by he must get to that very small audience and convince them to give a little. This is not a tall order. A Democratic President ought to be able of convince a portion of 20% of his own party to show up for their candidate. We shall see. Early on, compare turn out in Boston/Cambridge versus Western Mass. This will tell the story.