Stunner

Stunner. Mass Special Election: Brown 48 Coakley 47.

Obama is destroying the Democratic Party. This is in Massachusetts. This is Ted Kennedy's seat. Even if Coakley wins - if it is remotely close the Democrats are in deep, deep trouble.

Update: I feeling like jumping back in on this one. On reflection, the poll cited above strikes me as truly odd. I'm not comfortable calling it an outlier as I really haven't followed this race at all. It's just odd. I've read that Coakley coasted through December - a mistake. It seems Brown is running a solid campaign and that he has taken large chunks out of her lead. However, Brown shooting ahead is a bridge too far. I'm not buying yet. There are internal polls in both camps that tell the real story. Of this I am sure. If they favor Brown the RNC will start spending money quickly. If they favor Coakley the RNC will hold on to its cash.

This is not to say that I don't think Brown has a chance. He does. It's official: He has a chance.

2 things to look out for:
1. The weather on election day. Bad weather favors Brown.
2. Turnout. Not get out the vote machines - just turnout. Independents in very large numbers on election day also favor Brown.

Coakley must win by double digits for this election to be a non story - which is the goal. Everyone move along. Nothing to see here. If her win is by single digits, the GOP will claim a moral victory. If Brown does pull it off it - Democrats are in a world of hurt. The tactical damage in the Senate would be real enough - the symbolism of replacing Kennedy with a Republican - shattering.