The Republican plan is...

I love the battle in politics. I want the real arguments to be joined. On this I am bipartisan. With that in mind I offer some advice to the GOP after what I think was Obama's best week in months.

Here goes:

2 things will save 2010 for Democrats.

1. The economy.

2. The Republicans.

If the economy truly turns around Dems will still lose seats but not majorities. That said - the Democrats will also survive if the GOP fumbles. Inviting Obama to the House GOP retreat was a good move. Allowing it to be televised was not. That was boneheaded. Obama got what amounted to a press conference with combative questioners. This always favors a President. The only hope the questioners have is to catch Obama off guard, like his remark that ended with the "beer summit" last summer. Frankly, the bits and pieces I've seen clearly indicate that Obama won the day. Easily. Why was I able to see them? I favor open government - but I do wonder why the House GOP sponsored an Obama event.

The Obama I saw today was one that should have shown up months ago. Some of his wording was condescending (I don't think that will change) but he was smoothly combative, defended his positions, and got in a few good sound bites. He was, to a certain extent, Bill Clinton. And the GOP gave him the forum...not smart.

The GOP needs to let the "He did not move Right like Clinton in the SOTU" meme die. Firstly, he did move Right. Not much - but enough to seize a chunk of the argument about spending. All he needs is a chunk of the argument to stake a claim of fiscal responsibility. He doesn't need to win all of it. The GOP misreads this argument all the time. People do not loath government spending in and of itself. They loath wasteful government spending. Had the stimulus actually employed large numbers of people that 800 billion boondoggle would be considered a genius move and Obama would be polling at 70%. It could have been targeted to do just that. The New Deal did not end the Depression - but it gave people faith again. It got people moving. It may well have stunted a brewing revolution.

Here's a fact: Obama has moved the conversation this week. The GOP is responding as if he hasn't. He hasn't moved it much. And it may not last. And it may be 90% perception (However, perception is 90% of the battle.) Still, responding to Obama as if his SOTU was some liberal, fire breathing campaign speech is knee jerk stupidity. Obama gave a measured, center-left speech that was moderate in tone. Conservatives have convinced themselves that they win all arguments with liberals by merely opening their mouths. They don't. Liberals win arguments all the time. The last 70 years are littered with examples of liberals winning arguments - convincing the public to move Left.

The constantly cited poll that has 40% of Americans identifying as conservative, whereas only 20% claim to be liberals, tricks conservatives into thinking that they are America's natural fall back position. Not true. Far more than 20% of Americans embrace center-left positions on a host of issues. That poll is a reflection of successful branding, not ideology.

When center-left positions are soberly stated and soberly argued - they often win over a majority. This is not a center-right country when all issues - economic, defense and social - are taken together. We are a center-center country. Conservatives are much better at branding. Therefore, those arguing for the center-left positions have a higher mountain to climb. What's interesting to me politically this week is my sense that Obama has finally become aware of this. He's no longer relying on some imagined mandate.

Even though he was everywhere last year, Obama checked out when it came to the dirty work. If he's learned his lesson - the GOP had better be prepared to argue their side and not assume that they've won hearts and minds by simple virtue of Obama's screw ups.

Finally, comparing Bill Clinton's SOTU in 2005 to BHO's in 2010 is misleading. Brown's win was a disaster for the Democrats. It was also one election. The Dems have gone from 60 senate seats to 59. Bad because of the filibuster. But the not the end of the world. In 1994 the House went GOP for the first time in 40 years. Insisting that Brown's election is equivalent to 1994 plays directly into Obama's hands. Clinton outflanked the GOP in the next few years by saying put up or shut up. He won re-election the moment he let Gingrich shut down the government. Obama will metaphorically do the same thing if the GOP lets him. He is already. Any Republican that thinks Americans will support a "conservative" view on the bank taxes because 40% of them claim to be conservative needs his head examined. This is one example of a "put up or shut up" that Obama can and will use.

If I were a GOP advisor I'd say they need to find forums to "put up". Present a simple, appealing, plan that is not a bunch of recycled Reagan bromides. Don't assume those bromides win the day by default in 2010. The nation isn't dashing back to "government IS the problem" thinking. Even if it were the GOP has no one that approaches Reagan's political skills.

There can be no excuses about not getting a message out either. Huge chunks of the media have a conservative bias now. Elections do have consequences. The biggest is the winner gets the bully pulpit. Obama's in it. The GOP isn't. Deal with it. Start every interview with "The Republican plan is..." Not some version of "Obama is a crazy liberal..."

Scott Brown changed the landscape for both parties. Now the GOP has to act, not just react. Watching Obama this week it seems he understand this. Reading conservative columns this week indicates that they don't.

Oh, and don't give the leader of the other party a free podium, lecture hall, and TV cameras and forget the office of the President doesn't have an automatic and huge advantage.