I predict Coakley will win. Barely.

I must confess that my computer time this week is being spent reading up on potential USC football head coach replacements. (Since I'm sure everyone here is interested in this matter of great import - which, as we all know, will make or break Western Civilization as we know it - I am putting L.R.'s considerable weight behind Steve Mariucci.)

I was hoping those first few sentences would lead me somewhere...into my usual land tortured prose to make a point....but they did not. Therefore I shall turn to Mass. Senate race.

I predict Coakley will win. Barely. However, let me remind everyone that I also predicted Corzine would win in New Jersey. My view from the far Western shore has recently been rendered suspect. Obama called on volunteers to help Coakley. This is a bad sign for her. Had he asked for money it would be a different story. Money makes little difference this late in the game. A fundraising letter with a week to go is gilding the lily. The concern is for "boots on the ground". This means they know the other side is energized. Even a moderate Dem turnout probably gives her a win. A low Dem turn out is trouble. If anyone thought Obama could still appeal to the independents he'd show up in the Bay State this week. The calculation must be that Obama turns off independents at this point. And Kennedy is not a factor. In the last decade Kennedy was a habit in Massachusetts more than a force to be reckoned with. Ted endorsed Obama, Hillary clocked Obama in the Mass. primary.

In watching clips from the debate last night I will say this: Brown did himself a world of good. His "It's the people's seat." moment will serve him well for years to come. A star was born for the GOP. It may be in the next few days that moment will achieve the nearly impossible. It was compelling. If Brown wins it will be because of that moment in the debate.

I'm going with a Coakley win by 3%. The third party candidate is working for her at this point. Regardless, unless she wins by double digits, the "Obamacrats" are the losers. The Obama machine of 2008 will be officially dead. A close contest or a Brown win means that the Clinton Democrats - in a very blue state - have defected to a GOP candidate. Those voters tell the most intriguing story. It will be interesting to see the exit poll demographics. A big swing of working class voters who voted for Obama into Brown's column will make Donna Brazile's "We don't need 'em" remark among the dumbest things ever said by a political operative.