20%

The collapse of Obama's poll numbers over the course of the year is causing earsplitting cognitive dissonance among his last remaining apologists. As it was during the campaign when outright refusal to question Obama was the order of the day - the delusion now being foisted across the Obamasphere is "Blame anyone but the man himself." This post by Steve Benen at the Washington Monthly is one of a few of late that is sad, pathetic and will cause even deeper wounds. It's a return to the full blown Obama denial of 2008. "Odious" Republicans are to blame for Obama's fall. The difficult economy is to blame. Alien abductions are to blame. Pick an excuse, any excuse. Obama must not be blamed...even though it's self evident that all year he picked the wrong fights, at the wrong times, and deputized the wrong cowboys. HE picked them. Not "odious Republicans".

President Obama has gone from near 80% approval a year ago to just below 50%. In a nutshell the reason is simple: President Obama.

Obama's style is a problem but not THE problem. Obama's choices are the problem. (Therefore Obama is the problem.) Obama blew it this year. People are angry as hell about health care being the focus for so long. They are angry about the deals made in the Senate. They are angry that Obama lied about the debate being public. A majority do not want this bill and many are seething about it. And it's not all "tea party" people. Independents are running for the exits. Two states that Obama won have elected GOP govs. Brown has the entire Dem establishment in a panic in the bluest of blue states. Boxer is below 50% in blue California.

Why won't Obama's fan base in the media assess the situation honestly? They do not have the intellectual acuity. They are, to put it bluntly, too stupid. It's takes too much mental power to accept that this man, their great Redeemer, made a colossal political misjudgement by not focusing on jobs in 2009. Or worse, that he never cared about governing, and is only about mincing before any nearby camera and throwing about words like "unprecedented" while tossing the real work to Pelosi - who wouldn't win an election as garbage collector in 99% of the nation.

The health care "non reform" is the lightening rod. But it goes deeper than that. Moderates feel mislead by the man. True or not that's what is playing out. A vast segment of the population senses the wheels have come off. Not a majority to be sure. But more than enough to bury the Democrats. Revolutions are never lead by a majority, all it takes is a deeply engaged 20%. Especially in a country in which half the population can't be bothered with politics on even the most perfunctory level: voting.

I'm not referring to a violent upheaval. Still, a brutal discrediting of the entire body politic is underway. Any of a number of "black swan" events is capable of crystallizing this contempt in a way that even CNN and the Washington Monthly can't ignore. The political class that still supports Obama should take no comfort in the GOP's awful poll numbers. In actuality, the political class would be better served if the GOP was more popular. The "throw the bums out" sentiment will go somewhere -one of the two devils we know - or someplace much rougher. Any good student of history will tell you that the dithering intellectual elites are the first to get the machete when the shinola finally, and abruptly, hits the fan.

It's worth noting that even Obama himself understands this on some level. The pivot to what he should have been doing all along is going to be dramatic in the next few weeks. Jobs, jobs, jobs, will be the mantra as soon as heath care is disposed of. This is politically smart and it's also loaded with danger. Chanting "jobs" on MSNBC and creating them are not at all the same. Having spend the country into the abyss already won't help matters either. ( I'm an unreconstructed Keynesian on this point. Obama could have spent our last 800 billion in vaguely viable debt on a real jobs creation program. He chose to not to.) Unless jobs come back in leaps and bounds in the next 8 months his party will reap the whirlwind.

Comparisons between this year and 1994 are already plentiful. There is a strong case to be made that congress will flip and a strong case it won't. Regardless, the difference in tone is already tangible. In 1994 there was frustration with Clinton and the Democrats. A sizable chunk of those who felt frustrated then feel threatened now. That's a huge emotional change. 1994 was a push back against a presidency and his party. What's coagulating now is a push back against the entire system. This too is lost on the Obama apologists.

As long as Obama apologists keep blaming Fox News and tea party people and every little thing except the manner in which Obama chose to conduct his first year- the Dems will continue to sink. It's not "bad candidates" or Republicans who are, frankly, just doing their jobs. It's Obama and the political culture he threw into sharp relief. To avoid this narrative coursing through places like Massachusetts is to amplify the sense that those in power are tone deaf and dismissive. This, in turn, will further inflame scores of Americans. It only takes 20%.


For a more measured take (ha!) on what is currently underway in Massachusetts - please read this piece at the L.A. Times.