predictions

Tonight I'll cross into the danger zone and make a few predictions for 2010. Note that I'm working only with hunches based on observation. My psychic abilities rank just below my basketball abilities.

So here we go:

1. Obama will recover a bit in the polls in the first few months of 2010 putting him above 50%. This will occur because:

2. He and the Democrats will pass some sort of health care "reform" and with whiplash inducing abruptness move toward talk of jobs and the deficit. It will be jobs and the deficit 24/7 in the new year. Though the health care bill is enormous and game changing, next to no one will see any changes in 2010. The law is set up as a negative inducement for the next 2 elections....They want to reverse the amazing Obama's historic progress and take away your health care. That is its primary political value in the near term. After January, talk of the health care will be shoved aside until October.

Also please note then whenever an abrupt change in meme is being planned Obama heads to Hawaii....where he is now with his family. Rahm also tends to be "out of the country" just prior to a shift in WH talking points. There is nothing special about this - it just seems to work that way.

3. The Obama bump in the polls will peter out by April, jobs being easier to talk about then to create. The mass psychological stance toward Obama has changed from hope to tolerance in 2009. He must now put up or shut up. This will be difficult for him to say the least.

4. The economy will bump along in an alleged recovery at least into the first quarter of calendar 2010. Possibly the first two. Something will give in the markets by summer...or before. The market will fall below 10,000 in 2010.

5. The probability of an act of domestic terrorism is high in 2010. By this I mean a criminal act perpetrated by an American on Americans. Hope I'm wrong.

6. The GOP will make huge gains in congress. The house could very well become GOP. I believe the Senate will remain Dem. However, a new majority leader will be elected as Reid will lose his seat.

7. Oil will pass the 100 dollar a barrel mark again by summer.

8. Iran...oh Iran....I thought this crisis would have come to a head by now. It will in 2010. Obama's ego driven need to "engage" has removed his natural fall back position - splitting the difference. The gray area has evaporated. W and crew desired confrontation - but now it's the Iranian regime that will want a confrontation. The mullahs have outflanked Obama all year. Still, the domestic clock is ticking and they know it. Nothing ensures their continued power in Iran like a confrontation with the West.

9. Cap and trade is dead and will remain dead in 2010.

10. "Chicago style" thuggery within the administration will become more apparent as the year progresses. The GOP - smelling blood - isn't likely to go along with much that Obama proposes. Both Rahm and Obama have little experience not getting their way. Their tactics will will get harsher.