The errand boy runs aground on a reef of tea.

Way back in the olden times (say March or April) this blog suggested that the "tea party" protests hit a core American nerve and should not be dismissed. The use of "tea" to protest taxes was a giveaway that at least the theatrics would have deeper appeal than most were willing to admit publicly. After all, a tax protest is the reason the country emerged in the first place. Tax protests land somewhere after Apple Pie and before Mom in our mythology.

Astroturfing is an overrated phenomenon. Big money and big interests can prime the pump - they cannot force a sea change in attitudes for long unless masses of people really do feel a certain way or are ready to buy in.

The phrase "Tea Party Movement" now out polls both the GOP and the Democrats. On the one hand this means little. Many have turned sour on Obama and the Democrats this year, yet the GOP has no single, clear leader. One might replace the phrase "tea party" with "committee to rescue cats" and it would poll well against the two exhausted behemoths in D.C.

On the other hand, we should assume that most people have a general sense that 'tea party' equates to "tax revolt" or "stop the out of control spending". They know exactly what "tea party" means and are supportive. The shift in attitude on this point is stunning. Not even a year ago a majority supported both the stimulus and health care reform. This has reversed. Last December we were in the midst of a moment of renewed "hope". There was a sense that a new era of good feeling was dawning. No more. Government is seen as the problem again. Could the attitude be reversed again? Maybe. I do not see Obama leading the way however. He has many political skills. Resilience after taking a hit is not one of them. Note that when Hillary refused to quit - he limped to the nomination with the entire media and the DNC establishment pushing him to the finish line.

What does this mean politically? A shift to the Right in D.C. - though not necessarily in the nation which isn't shifting so much as at is reasserting a position it's been in all along...slightly right of center. Obama won the middle because he implied he was a man of the middle. (He's not) The middle bought it. He also won the Left because he implied he was a man of the Left. (He's not.) The Left bought it.

What is Obama then? An errand boy sent by grocery clerks to collect a bill. A bill none of us feel it's fair to pay, a bill that is exorbitant extortion, a bill that does not reflect services rendered. It is an invoice from the moneyed elites demanding even more money from the middle class. Obama's job is to extort the cash while pretending he's not. Mrs. Clinton didn't have the gall or duplicitous nature to succeed at this task. The elites knew it. Therefore she was buried in the 2008 primaries.

I won't predict the next election's outcome. The GOP should do well but that's hardly a prediction. It's a weather report. The "tea party" surge could overrun the GOP as well as the Democrats if the jobs picture does not brighten drastically and the inner elites of the GOP remain ossified. Also, don't think once health care is put to bed as a daily story that the Democrats won't high tail it back to the land of job creation and deficit control. They will. For 10 months. The huge raise in the debt ceiling now is to avoid doing it at election time. Politics 101.

I WILL predict another 'black swan' event as the deciding factor in the mid terms. (The choices are GOP gains or GOP tidal wave.) In August of 08 I predicted an 'unforeseen' event dictating the outcome...the crash happened right on cue. The same financial elites who mowed down opposition to Obama are now demanding deficit control. Funny, that hardly mattered to them when the banks were at the teet. Do not be surprised if the 'black swan' is financial.

Astroturfing the beginning of the tea party movement was never the story. With Obama's agenda the movement was going to happen regardless. Post populist outburst astroturfing is the story now. Who will seize the moment and the movement? The story of power in this country is one of harnessing the emotions of the masses to be used for the benefit of the few. Many will claim the mantle of tea party populism while taking boatloads of cash from not so special interests. The GOP ought to benefit. But if Republicans morph the anger into support for the same corporate cabal that is traditionally in their camp it will successfully castrate the tea party movement. Replacing Blue Cross and ACORN with Haliburton and Exxon-Mobile does not a revolution make.

Watch. Closely.

Agree or not, the tea party movement should be taken very seriously. Unlike Obama's election, it may actually be a watershed moment.