Obama's real Waterloo

Obama came in with a lot going his way. He won a mandate - though not a landslide. He had a huge majority in the House and a substantial majority in the Senate. Goodwill and, yes, hope, gave him sky high approval numbers with the population at large.

The majorities are still in place. But his poll numbers have dropped hard - more than any President in modern history. There are those who insist that this drop is because he has governed from the left after running from the middle. There is some truth in this - though it is a criticism that speaks more to the general lack of good information on Obama before the election and the electorate's unfortunate choices. Obama's governing style - if you could call it a "style" - was predictable if anyone had bothered to look at his history.

He's also dropped in the polls because be blew the health care debate early. He may have intended to blow it. Regardless, he either misunderstood the opposition or didn't care enough to fire back with the big guns until September. By then his numbers had dropped 30 points from their January high. He may win a sort of victory on health care but his credibility on the issue is shot. For the next 4 years every time some mentions anything negative about health care - Obama will be just under their breath.

What is most interesting and surprising are the moments he diminishes himself. Obama expends political capital in the oddest moments. He absorbed an entire week of cable news time with the "beer summit". His flight of fancy to Copenhagen to land the Olympics for Chicago was among the oddest choices I've ever seen a President make. It can only be explained as a literal ego trip. Now, he's taking on Fox news.

I'm not sure how to read this White House created "war with Fox". The most intelligent argument I've heard is that it's really about keeping CNN and MSNBC in line...if it comes from Fox it's not news, do not pick up the story. I buy this theory. It's hardball and has the same vibe as when Obama got shellacked by Hillary in the ABC/Pennsylvania debate. Word went out to the Obama minions to attack ABC for the questions....do not make excuses for Obama's performance....Attack ABC.

It's also a stupid warning to those Fox viewers who might be prone to cut Obama some slack. Fox's demographics are much broader than the other 2 cable news networks. Obama's slippage in the polls comes from the "Fox middle". He needs those voters - and he knows it. Yet, he's telling the millions who choose and enjoy Fox that their choice is false and wrong. Stupid.

Whatever the reason, the marching orders here appear to come from the very top. I sense the Obama Administration pique at Fox comes from Obama. The invocation of the paranoid Nixon into the 'war of Fox news' media narrative is under girded by the evidence that this was not cooked up by White House lackeys. The attacks are coordinated and ongoing. Emmanuel, Jarrett, and Axelrod are on the same page which indicates that their boss not only approves - but acted as instigator.

Obama seems to be a man who cannot abide 'looking bad' in any circumstance. It's why he's stayed out of the meat of the health care debate. It's why he punted the stimulus. It's why he would not announce the additional Iranian nuclear sites until his turn at the U.N. was done and the major players had decamped to Pittsburgh. It's why his foolish off the cuff remark about the Gates arrest was blown up into a 'summit'. His ego demanded that he lead a 'teachable moment' instead of just admitting he was wrong and moving on.

It goes without saying that nighttime programing at Fox News is biased. As it is as MSNBC. But Obama can't stomach being attacked nightly on Fox. Think back at when MSNBC revved up against Bush. Or when the media establishment ripped Bill Clinton to shreds daily. I'm sure there were power plays and attempts to punish journalists - but not a coordinated assault. This attack on Fox is based in Obama's weak ego.

Ego makes people stupid. Like the beer summit and the Copenhagen fiasco the attack on Fox is mostly just stupid. Obama is picking a fight he cannot win. Roger Ailes has the upper hand by virtue of one simple and obvious fact: He's not the President of the United States. Events win. Obama must contend with events. All Ailes has to do is send people out to report and comment on them. Obama's ego does not allow him to see that most people do not care one little bit about how he or his administration views Fox News. They care about events and how events affect them. If the market tanks again Obama has to explain it - not Fox. If Afghanistan disintegrates further, Obama has to explain that - not Fox. Obama has to answer for high unemployment - not Fox. Events happen. An event that will absorb us all - and the media - will happen. Soon, I suspect. When this event happens - an event that will not have a simple Right/Left answer - Obama's war on Fox will look all the more foolish. I'm not being Cassandra here - just stating that the world marches on for all Presidents.

President are not allowed the luxury of worrying about how they look. It's striking that Obama does not understand this. Not surprising - he's never had to earn anything or been forced to take his lumps - but it is still striking. He is not a stupid man. He just plays one when not on TV.

Politically, Obama has yet again chosen to expend capital on a losing fight. This trait of his, not health care, will be his Waterloo.