I recommend pessimism.

I do not believe the economic hard times are behind us. The reasons for this are simple:

1. I'm an optimist in my personal life. However, by virtue of long observation, I'm a pessimist in terms of my macro outlook. The base economic issues have not been addressed. They haven't been for 50 years. The problem before the financial "crisis" was conjured false wealth based in debt. The solution to this has been to double down on debt. Not a solution. It is another mirage.

2. Those telling us now that the hard times are receding have a vested interest in telling us the hard times are receding. There is no logic behind this pollyanna happy talk. I see no reason to trust it. It's easy to dismiss the Cassandras when they are wrong. In this case, the Cassandras were correct. Until proven otherwise, the safest bet is to assume that the Bush/Obama polices that addressed the problem by ignoring and aggravating the problem are making matters worse.

3. The jobs numbers are lies. The real unemployment rate is closer to 20%. Unless and until this number changes nothing else matters. Only in the upside down world run by elites - like the one we have now - are unemployment stats a "lagging" indicator. In the real world the economy equals jobs -jobs that create tangible goods and services that in turn create wages. All the capital on earth matters not unless it is creates jobs. Slam my economic naivete if you like. Economists have theorized us into a financial black hole. The real economy is created by and driven by people. With jobs.

4. There are too many of us on this planet. That reality underlies everything else. I have nothing else I'm willing to say about it now. It's too horrifying.

Therefore, counter intuitive as it is for Americans, I recommend pessimism. Assume shocks are coming. Assume you are being lied to. Assume your best interests are not being looked out for. You'll lose nothing if your pessimism is misplaced, except naivete. You'll gain more autonomy, and may well be better placed to ride through any coming shocks.

The bulk of our fellows have opted to avoid dealing with reality. (The Obama campaign of 2008 was the high water mark for this mass avoidance.) Reality is now set to deal with us.

Here are my 4 suggestions for the coming years which I believe will be tough:

1. Get out debt. Do not incur more debt. In line with this - limit spending to what you need and not much else. We all must stop being "consumers" and start being citizens again. The system is set up to create dependency among its citizens. Refuse to participate in the consumer economy trap. It has created a nation of debt slaves who are unaware that they are debt slaves. This, in turn, has caused an emergent, unconscious, and dangerous narcissism.

2. Limit exposure to media. All media. Including the Internet. Turn off the TV for a day. Or days at a time. The media in the United States is a distraction machine. It works to inflame passions - then sooth passions with the sale of all manner of pointless products. I am guilty of a participating in this self destructive cycle. I suspect I am more guilty than many of my readers. The media in America is a form of collective insanity. The media assaults us then tells us what to spend on to heal the bruises it just inflicted. Should we all go live in caves? No. Absolutely not. Important information still gets through. We cannot put our heads in the sand. But we can wrest control of the conversation by limiting our passive participation. As it stands now the media machinery is in the business of telling us what ought to concern us whether it actually does or not. In this way the conversation is massaged and controlled. Limit media and be critical of all information. Choose your distractions wisely. Control the message so that it does not control you.

3. Endeavor to be more thrifty with, and more conscious of, your energy consumption . Here is what we know: Oil is our energy mainstay. 61% of the oil production regions in the world are past peak and declining. The U.S. is a massive consumer of oil. Much of it comes from places that are not friendly to us. This has fostered a scary dependence. There will be alternatives to oil. But they won't be cheap and they won't arrive anytime soon.

Reduce your energy consumption for whatever reason suits you. You want to lessen your carbon footprint. You want to stick it to Hugo Chavez. You want to lower pollution levels. You want to save some money. Whatever. We are an energy enslaved nation. Learn to live with less now. I'm convinced we'll be forced to soon enough.

4. Choose your food wisely. We are too fat. That ought to be reason enough. But there are other reasons. We are a nation fed on a massive factory farm. Food is created, packed and moved large distances, arriving "just in time." A disruption in this system (see suggestion 3 above.) is a real possibility and would be catastrophic. Eat less. And eat locally grown food whenever possible. Stock up.

Do I think any of these things will change the macro- outlook? No. I don't. However, we can empower ourselves to handle coming shocks.