Boxer versus Fiorina

Chatter about Carley Fiorina challenging Barbara Boxer for her California Senate seat increased with the release of a Rasmussen poll that puts her only 4 points back.

My quick early take:

2010 will be a Republican year - Advantage Fiorina.

Boxer is running for a 4th term and Boxer fatigue has already started. Advantage Firoina.

California is a blue state - but Boxer is on the outer edge ideologically. Advantage Firoina.

One should not discount the still solid Democratic majority in California. Fiorina is close in this poll because she is largely unknown and Boxer is known. The "blue" majority could be engaged if Boxer identifies Fiorina before she identifies herself.

Fiorina's known downsides that Boxer can exploit:

A. Her connection to John McCain. Expect Fiorina to be connected to Palin in ads. This will be affective in getting Democrats out for Boxer.

B. Hewlett-Packard. It is often glossed over that Fiorina was forced out and considered a failed C.E.O. by many at the time. Though 2010 will favor the GOP in places that Blue Dogs have to defend seats in districts McCain won, the conservative energy behind these races will not be evident in California -and therefore will not be an advantage for Fiorina. Further 2010 also has the potential to be a very "anti-big business" year. Fiorina can- and will - be tagged as "big business". Along the coast, where most Californians live, this is a potent campaign meme. Advantage: Boxer.

The ticket: So far S.F. mayor Gavin Newsome is running a very good, very "California" campaign for Governor. He's appealing, has star quality, and is good looking. He is the kind of person Californians love to elect. If he gets past Jerry Brown and becomes the nominee this could favor Boxer - if his campaign does not stumble. Brown, though still well liked by Democrats here, is less likely to ignite passions. Younger Democrats will be less engaged. I would bet now that either Brown or Newsome will be elected in 2010. Though Newsome is appealing, Brown remains far ahead in polls. Brown on the top of ticket helps neither candidate. But...

Fiorina's problem here is the lack of Republican powerhouses running for Governor. Baring a conservative star - say Jon Voight - getting into the race the top of the GOP ticket is likely to be dull. Though, I suspect Voight is too far Right to appeal in California statewide. Arnold S. is probably the only Republican that could have been elected Governor in recent history.

Advantage: Boxer.

Though frustration with Democrats is building in Virgina and Ohio - Obama and the Democrats are likely to remain somewhat popular in places like California and New York.

Advantage Boxer.

(Odd scenario: If Obama turns out to be very unpopular and 2010 is a rerun of 1994 or 1966 -he will be a drag on Boxer even in California. Obviously Obama won big here in the general. But his connections are shallower than the returns indicated. Independents broke for Obama. He is losing them now. How would Boxer counter this? Easily the most popular politician in a generation here is Bill Clinton. Either Clinton could be elected to any state wide office in California. Bill Clinton won going away in the 1992 and 1996 general elections. Hillary Clinton defeated Obama by 10% in the primary, though in many ways Obama was the ideal "California" candidate. Boxer and the Clintons may see an advantage in bringing Bill Clinton out to campaign. California Independents are still very open to Bill Clinton. This is, of course, an unlikely scenario. If Boxer needs Clinton by next Fall, Clinton is unlikely to want to be anywhere near her. )

Money: Fiorina has her own. Boxer can raise plenty.

This is a wash.

Of course, as with all races in 2010 - It's the economy, Stupid. The two Californias (East and West) could split in different directions if the economy is still in the doldrums. "East" California is closer in spirit to the American West. It's instincts are conservative and libertarian. "West" or Coastal California is decidedly more liberal and Boxer will be able to work this part of the state - and it could go further Left. The coast has more voters - but inland regions will be more engaged in 2010. Republicans will NOT stay home if Boxer is seen to be in danger.

This could end up being a wash.

Finally, Fiorina on the campaign trail is an unknown quantity. Will she run a solid campaign? Can she? Other than Arnold, the GOP is borderline pathetic in statewide races here of late. Even Arnold has no pull past his persona. Fiorina causes some excitement because she is somebody. A national figure of sorts. No one else on the GOP side seems able to mount a statewide campaign. She'll have to answer questions - and, I'd guess, will be to the left of the GOP base on social issues. This is necessary if she expects Independents. But might dampen enthusiasm on the Right.

Boxer is a known quantity as a campaigner - and she's tougher than her press would lead one to believe. She holds the record for statewide votes in a contested election getting 6,955,728 in 2004. That's 210,000 more than Kerry got.



So from a year and a half out here is my prediction if Fiorina runs:

Fiorina - 52%
Boxer 48%

Obviously, there are too many variables to know with any certainty. I assume Obama will be less popular. I assume this off year election, like most, will favor the party out of power. I assume Fiorina will run a solid campaign as a moderate (This is the least predictable factor.) Finally, I assume that Boxer will have worn out her welcome just enough to keep a chunk of coastal liberals at home.