Green shoots or denial?

Every time I look at the CNBC business site I see conflicting information. One day an economic recovery is coming this Fall - the next it may happen "well into 2010." Cramer takes a modest upturn in housing starts and yells that the recession is over. But then other "economists" predict far worse days ahead.

Nobody knows anything.

Evidence of the recession's creep is everywhere around Los Angeles. The one homeless guy outside the nearest subway station has become 8 - of both genders. I went to the Valley on business yesterday and had a moderate shock at the number of "for lease" signs on the exteriors of now defunct business.

Yet, if one goes to The Grove - a high end outdoor mall or the adjacent Farmer's Market activity is buzzing. Americans found a way to drop 200 millions dollars this weekend seeing Tranformers...Paramount Pictures - having lopped off 10% of its work force this year - thanks you. A commenter here mentioned a recent Disney World vacation in which she observed thousands dropping the long green without a care.

Are we in a last final bout of denial? Or is it really not all that bad?