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Monday, February 23, 2009

A shock to the system.

The first spark of Revolution. That's how Kunstler referred to Santelli's rant heard round the world here. Let me add that Team Obama is inadvertently cobbling together a ragtag coalition of dissenters. Everyone from disaffected whites (see Holder), to pensioners, to hardcore 2nd Amendment defenders, to the outer shelf of the Left that as seen the light about President Mess, to the 93% of homeowners who are current on their mortgages - some inflicting great pain on themselves to be so, are currently panicked or seething. Or both.

It used to be, not long ago at all, that only fringe types, peak oilers, Ron Paulists, and on the other end, real, unabashed Leftists , could be heard sounding the economic alarm.

No more. Last week George Soros and Paul Volcker, pronounced the Post War world economy, dead, dead, dead. Hard to get more Establishment than those two.

When I heard that BHO will address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday I felt a pang of sympathy for him. The scramble to stay one step ahead must be taxing - so to speak. I don't mean a step ahead of the economic tailspin. That's not possible at this point, if ever it was. Obama and crew are trying to stay one step ahead of the social meltdown that seems set to follow close on its heals.

It is errant nonsense that BHO did not know how bad things were last November - and is just waking up to the facts. He's not an imbecile. Hillary knew. Paulson knew. Anyone who spent 10 minutes with the god of information, Google, knew. Obama was chosen with this moment in mind. But the man has triangulated himself to the edge of the abyss. The need to please his handlers (Wall Street Types, all), his resentment based socialist instincts, (that he truncates at every turn), and his own narcissism adds up to the flailing we see before us. Obama speaks, the market keels over.

I suspect on Tuesday night, Obama will take President Clinton's Good Morning America advice. He'll tell us what a great people we are and how we can handle any crisis. He'll dip in to history to assuage us. Pelosi will glow with Nancy Reagan-esque adulation. Most of the Democratic side will be up and down so much it may cause a stroke or two. Still, Obama needs to push the reset button and he knows it. His approval rating will not be in the 60s much longer. Below 50% and the media grizzlies attack. Ask Bush. After he went below 50% for good during the Shivao debacle, he never got his groove back. Then Katrina castrated him for the duration.

Obama will then get to the meat of the matter using various cloaking devices to soften the blow. The largest being entitlements. We are about to witness a man who just shoved a trillion dollar debt bill down our throats intone about cutting deficits. As is becoming the norm, happiness will be felt throughout the land...for 24 hours. Social Security is on the block. When that becomes clear to Ma and Pa America things are going to get sporty for Barry.

An unravelling has begun. I'm not sure it can or should be stopped. (AIG will report the largest corporate loss in history a few hours before Obama speaks.) After a brief stint in January thinking that a big spending bill was our last hope, I've returned to my first, gut instinct: The system must be allowed to fail.

I don't mean capitalism. I mean the system in which debt and credit have replaced goods, services and real value. Houses as ATM machines is only the most apparent manifestation. If the actual (not conjured) American economy looks more like it did in 1970 then so be it.

In 1970 we began "debting" for others' energy. Since, we've "debted" for everything else to keep things going. Returning to the 90s (where stocks returned today) is not a tenable goal. Though Clinton erased the deficits, he could not touch our debt. More credit is not the solution. It is the problem.

Suspicion should be the watchword as we witness the frantic impulse to find an acceptable economic baseline. Is it 1997? 1987? We are being downsized whether we like it or not. Why suspicion? Because Rahm and crew don't see this downsize as a crisis. They see it as an opportunity.

For what is any one's guess. I certainly have mine. Alas, they all include the word "conspiracy" so I'll defend my ego and not go there. Quietly watching my worst fears come to pass is horrifying enough.

Of course, the real wild card in this is all those who will not be in the House chambers on Tuesday night. We only just got told we must take some harsh medicine. Being told now we must swallow or else is not likely to elicit any long term joy. And will be a shock to the system to say the very least.

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