Iraq

Obama says our "combat troops" will be out of Iraq by 2011.

I do not believe it. I will believe it when I see it.

50,000 troops will remain past 2010. The status of forces agreement, finalized during the Bush Administration (Obama, as always, takes narcissistic credit saying: I have decided on a timetable... uh . WRONG, Barry. W's team signed off on the timetable.) demands all troops out by December 2011. We shall see. It stretches credulity to think that we will exit if the country is not stable. The definition of stable here is "oil flows unimpeded to the West." Any threat to oil production will keep up there.

Two things are possible here:

1. Obama knows he has the big Mo now and will have less as time marches on - so he's "keeping promises" left and right. Or, rather, he's rhetorically keeping promises, that he knows he can't actually keep. If Iraq sinks into chaos or partial chaos his Iraq announcement positions him as "the guy who, at least, tried." National security will demand further American presence - at which time Obama will make a serious speech about "Commanders on the ground advising him" etc etc.

2. Obama is willing to leave Iraq regardless weeks before the New Hampshire primary of 2012. He's assuming - or hoping - all will be well there...by then. If it is not he'll blame the previous Admin and say we've done enough. Most Americans hate this war. The implication of ceding Iraq to hell for Americans won't be fully evident until after November 2012 - and by then...another 4 years will have been purchased.

He's my bet: The status of forces agreement will be reworked. 50,000 non combat troops (there is no such thing, FYI) will stay. BHO can then take credit for slashing troop levels, keeping Iraq stable, and defending American interests (oil). The Left wing of the Democratic Party is much less important to incumbent Democrats. Chances are slight he'll have a legitimate opponent on the Left in 2012. He does not need to work them into a frenzy - they will be irrelevant, as they were in 1996.

Finally, Afghanistan is his war and he knows it. The best way to look at this announcement is as a confirmation that he his moving the focus of our involvement in the region - not lessening it. If, as is very likely, Afghanistan and large portions of Pakistan have disintegrated, no sane American President will abandon bases in nearby Iraq. (I realize this may not include the current American President.)

The thrust of American policy since 9/11 (and probably before) has been to ensure American dominance in the region. This has not changed.