Do you have any spare change?

Barring a massive, irrefutable, revelation about Obama that can not be ignored I don't see much that can swing the election to McCain. The "maverick's" campaign has been hesitant and disjointed. McCain's strategy seems to be "in the end they won't take the risk". Wrong. When people are angry and scared they will take a risk on a largely unknown commodity. I still believe my theory about how to run Presidential campaigns. Recap: run "negative" in August and September to soften up perceptions of your opponent - and finish "positive" with a vision of how to lead. McCain was "negative" in the summer and early fall and the polls reflected queasiness about Obama. Even so his ads where mocking more than hard hitting. As October settles in McCain has yet to push his overarching vision in a consistent manner. He is now stuck with either accepting the loss, or ferreting out a damning revelation. He has shown no willingness to kneecap Obama even if has information.

Early on, McCain was not negative enough. His ads have been interesting and sometimes funny - but hardly devastating. None of them have forced a change in the equation of the election: It belongs to the Democrats unless overwhelming reasons arise to change the dynamic. There are plenty of reasons. None of them have been aired consistently. A glancing blow regarding Rezko, another regarding Ayres. Sure Obama may make some queasy but not enough to keep the GOP in power. The "negative" attack needed to be overwhelming and sustained. And like Clinton before him he needed to factor in the media as being the enemy. Clinton never learned that the MSM was embedded in the Obama camp. She expected a level of investigation from "journalists" that never materialized. It still hasn't. McCain needed to make the Obama attacks so sharp they could not be shrugged off. McCain needed to set the agenda.

As for the power of 527s - they don't work if they don't show up. For whatever reason conservatives have never liked McCain. The power behind the 527s has been limp in its response to Obama. The conservative agenda - and unlike most liberals they actually have one - is better served by an Obama win. Harsh but true. The very best way to refurbish the conservative brand is 2 years of an unchecked Democratic majority. Obama will roto rooter Bush out of the GOP system.

I said a while ago that an "outside" event would decide this election. The financial crisis seems to have been that event. Admittedly I was thinking along much more dramatic lines. And the market going loco was hardly unforeseen to anyone who'd been following the storyline. Still, the depth of the chaos was news to many voters, priming the pump for "change". Any change.