Why polls matter. Why polls don't matter.

First up and more important than anything below: Send prayers for the repose of the soul of Rep. Tubb Jones. Her death is a heartbreaker. I am partial to fierce women and she was one of the fiercest. She fought the good fight. She was the first black women to represent Ohio in congress - an amazing feat by itself. She fought many other battles - including refusing vote for the Iraq war resolution for the principled reason that it connected Iraq to 9/11 - which was false.

My God, she will be missed. This death is awful.



The post for tonight:

As I've said in the past I like polls. As a political junkie I find them intriguing. Once I've staked out a position the polls are just that to me: intriguing. I was against the war in Iraq when it was unpopular, when it was popular, when it was unpopular again, and even now when support for it seems split. Haven't liked Bush since 2000. He had some very popular months in the last 8 years. Events and actions could have changed my attitude on W and the war - but none did. Polls certainly had no part in my stance.

The same goes from Obama. My evolution on this man is pretty simple. I liked him after the 04 convention speech. Still liked him until about December 07. For me some things started to raise red flags around Iowa. Mostly I had a bad feeling we were not getting the whole picture. And his supporters were so weird about their support. And the media was TOO in love. Something was fishy.

Still I try to vote on information - not my hunches.

I thought Hillary was toast before New Hampshire and I thought I'd better look closer at BHO. This was a grudging attempt at making peace with him since I thought he was going to win and I was going to support him. The problem was Clinton was not toast, so I kept writing about BHO's flaws - mostly because Clinton kept on keeping on. The more I looked into Obama the less I liked him. And less. And less. My bad feeling was panning out into unpleasant facts about BHO's behaviour, tactics, and history. It wasn't just a feeling anymore.
I came to discover that Obama has no business being President - whether I like him or not, whether he defeated Clinton or not, whether he was 10 points up in the polls or 5 down as Zogby reported today, whether he wins in November or not. Unless and until the facts are somehow mitigated about BHO I see no reason to stop writing about him the way I do - sometimes with earnestness, sometimes with contempt, sometimes with humor. L.R. spent 2 long years with a tiny audience writing about the deceit and idiocies of the W team.

So the Zogby poll today is notable because of the sizable shift in the electorate. Getting too excited about it is a fools errand. I am not going to set myself up to moan and groan if BHO wins. He could. It's the weirdest year in America in my adult lifetime. The decline in leadership is palpable. The disintegration of the media is alarmingly rapid. On the media front it is clear the wheels have come off. For one of the two major parties it is clear the wheels have come off.

Conversely, while I'd feel safer if McCain wins it hardly excites me.

I don't think 2008 is a game changer politically. If BHO wins a racial barrier is broken. THE racial barrier is broken. That's good. Sadly, the person who will break the barrier is pathetic. I see no reason to believe we are going to witness a massive movement in the electorate like 1800 or 1932. W has boxed in his replacement. The population is deeply divided and will remain so - for a thousand reasons.

The polls of late are certainly interesting. I see comments elsewhere in which anti-Obama folks are giddy about them. I won't play that tune. My current hunch is that BHO will get a bump next week. If he leads McCain by 20 next Friday I still won't trust him. (Barring a message from GOD that says "You're wrong, John." Even in that case I'll ask for a second opinion. And I'll certainly say "GOD, with all respect and humility - I need REASONS. Give me REASONS. Faith doesn't work for me in this case. I am sorry to say I would not have taken my son to be slaughtered like Abraham. I thank you for not asking me to do any such thing...") Anyway, I doubt I'll see in a non burning burning bush in LA any time soon.

My angry criticism and frustration with Camp Obama is about his history and his character. Not poll numbers.

I'm not going to watch much, if any, of the Democratic convention. I see no reason to. The entire event is a fiction.

Here's how it goes: Big show on Monday with speeches. Tuesday Mrs. Clinton is the star. She gives a great speech. Wednesday Mrs. Clinton releases her delegates -like Ted Kennedy in 1980.
President Clinton gives a great speech. The V.P. nominee gives a speech. Somewhere in here Obama wins the nomination on the first ballot. Thursday BHO gives a boilerplate speech to 4 zillion rapturous numskulls in a football stadium. Keith Olberman has an orgasm on the air. Pundits wax poetic about the boilerplate speech and begin insisting BHO be put on Mt. Rushmore. The Clintons are on stage at the end, along with the BHO family and his cute kids. The rapturous media declares the Democrats unified.

The end.

A lot of folks are still think something explosive is going to happen in Denver. I don't. The Pumas are a force. However, they are not stand in front of a tank in Tienanmen Square types. Also, the whole idea that something that disqualifies BHO will emerge soon is nonsense. There is no reason for it to. If it exists the Clintons would know have sent that balloon up by now. The GOP has no reason to release damning info before Denver. Besides, IF there is something that disqualifies Obama - or even something really really bad - there is nothing to stop the party from removing him in October. A party nomination is not a Federal court appointment. He does not have to be impeached. He simply would have to be removed by the party.

And don't get me started on the ratatattat to contact superdelegates. The one place Clinton supporters can become as delusional at PODs is when they insist a 1000 emails matter to people who have been bought and paid for. As for the meme that they will see the light because in the end they want to win...ugh! No. No they don't. Winning is not part of their calculation. Superdelegates voted for Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. Nuff said.

To top it all off - the GOP is doing just fine without a "whitey tape" or dual citizenship conundrum. They can beat him without it.