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Thursday, August 28, 2008

Romeny? Really?

A security sweep was done on Mitt Romeny's sister's house today. Some are speculating that this means McCain will announce Romney as his VEEP soon.

GOPs are not my tribe so I have a hard time speculating about them. But I think Romeny is a bad pick. McCain has few choices. But my guess is that Romeny is a weak one. I think racism is overrated in elections. It exists to be sure. But there is also ample evidence that most voters are past it. However, attitudes about Moromism are another story. I believe Anti- Mormon feeling is strong. I am not saying this is fair or unfair. I am saying Romeny's religion is a problem politically.

Besides that I don't see what Romeny adds. The 3 states it would matter in are Utah - a GOP gimme, Massachusetts which is probably out of reach anyway, and Michigan, where is father was Governor. The only possible pick up Romeny brings is Michigan and I doubt his strength there.

McCain needs to appeal to Independents first and foremost. Secondarily, one could argue, that he needs to give hard core conservatives a reason to get off the couch. Unless, I am missing something a Romeny pick does neither. I think the hard Right will vote for McCain anyway after the 527's have their say. But I bet Independents will break to Obama if Romeny is on the GOP ticket. At least initially.

McCain needs a woman. Further, McCain needs a VEEP that will excite the nation, otherwise the GOP convention becomes an afterthought.

We shall see.

I'll add - if McCain has devastating info on Obama it does not matter who he picks. The GOP has been tame so far - by GOP standards.

 

 
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