The Bump.

The McCain campaign is putting out the word that BHO will receive a 15 point bump after the Denver party. They have reason to raise expectations. If the bump is 8 points, McCain wins. This is basic election gamesmanship. I don't blame them for sounding the alarm. Obama could get a substantial bump after Thursday. My prediction is he will get an 8-10% percent bump which will put him ahead 9-11%.

The GOP show the next week will shave it back down a bit. After the conventions I bet Obama will land about 6-10 points up. What happens between the GOP convention and the election remains a mystery to me. I say this because it usually is not a mystery to me.
Since I've been an adult:
Mondale never had much of a chance. The moment he announced in his acceptance speech he would raise taxes his victory chances became zero.
Dukakis was a forgettable figure who wasted an entire month while Lee Atwater destroyed him.
Clinton never looked back after the 92 convention. And contrary to Obama Pod talking points, Bill Clinton remains the best politician since FDR. Obama without a script is a trainwreck. Clinton gave entire speeches without teleprompters. And answered questions intelligently and off the cuff. Obama makes a fool of himself unless scripted. I have yet to see a moment when Obama has handled a mistake or revelation with skill. He always has a compliant media working over time to neutralize his campaign's missteps. His "amazing" race speech should have ended Hillary Clinton's campaign on the spot. Except is wasn't "amazing" to anyone outside CNN and MSNBC. Bill Clinton won every round from Flowers to the impeachment - himself. The media was not on his team. Ever.

1996 - was a rare GOP gimme.

2000 is odd. I thought Gore would win, and he did...before he didn't.

2004- Well, what can one say? I never thought Kerry would beat W after the convention. I just spent a lot of time hoping I was wrong.

All the factors this year are jumbled and add up to neutral to me. This is why I keep repeating that this is one of the rare elections when an outside event could decide it all. And, I bet, will. By this I don't mean a gaffe or a revelation from a candidate. These things do swing elections and they may swing this one. I am talking about a completely external event.

A massive market melt down favors BHO. Almost any foreign scare favors McCain.

Both candidates have large liabilities. McCain's age. Obama's inexperience. How much will knowledge that we will have a Democratic house, Democratic senate and Democratic executive influence Independents? Conversely, will fear of a very conservative supreme court swing votes? What DON'T most people know about BHO? Can McCain land a knockout blow by littering the airwaves with Ayres and Rezko? One more factor I can't yet pin down: Many GOPs dislike McCain. An Obama victory could resuscitate the GOP in 2 short years. People like Newt Gingrich have much to gain from a few years of Obama bumbling in the White House. If McCain can't put this one away by October 15 - many GOPs will begin to look toward deposing Pelosi in 2010. (Which should be a massive GOP year if Obama wins.)This year, the desire to punish Bush should not be discounted, either.

The queasy factor for both these men is high. For BHO it is worse. BUT this ought to be a year in which any Democrat wins in a landslide. There are at least 5 Democrats who would win in a landslide -Obama is not one of them. (Axelrod seems to have given up on the "landslide" scenario already. ) McCain holds the advantage on Obama on many fronts - all going back to Obama himself. The general mood of the country favors Obama.

When advantages negate each other, external factors loom large. With Russia's invasion of Georgia we have seen a dress rehearsal. McCain was Johnny on the spot. Obama was on vacation. McCain won that round.

I can't call this one. A fine place for a blogger to be.