Again about polls.

Again about polls. My fascination with them has deepened this year. They are so odd in 2008. As I said before I try not to be excitable about them. But they do tell a story. I wrote early this week that BHO would get a substantial bounce out of Denver. I still believe this. But what keeps happening in the polls is odd. Since Biden was announced as VEEP, McCain has gained in the Gallup tracking poll. Everything about this is counter intuitive. Nearly all candidates get a VEEP bounce. I thought BHO would, too. Albeit a small one given his "safe " choice. He didn't.

Further, the Europe trip should have given BHO a bounce. It did not. It's all so weird. What does it mean?
1. Obama has crested. Taking the long view I'd say BHO peaked overall in February. He's been very slowly declining nationally since then.
or
2. Undecideds are waiting to hear from McCain. The good news for Obama is that McCain is not ahead by much if any. The race has been almost even for a month.

Obama should be ahead by 10 now. And 15 next week. Even with all the bad news about him in the ether. Let me nip the "race" issue in the bud here - YES racism is at play. In every case we can look to recently it amounts to 5%. So by my estimation Obama should be ahead 5 now and 10 by Sunday sans any Wilder effect. The country is primed for a Democrat. Why isn't Obama ahead?
My guesses are simple:
1. McCain went at BHO hard for a month. It worked.
2. Obama is actually not very likable on close examination. Outside DNC circles and his most ardent fans there really is a "likability" gap. This goes hand in hand with "trust". We like those we trust. We trust those we like. It seems banal - but some voters do make a judgement based on who they want to stomach on their TV set for 4 years. Obama too often comes off as the High School Star everyone, except the coaches and his inner circle, resents. If he wins it will because enough people got over their annoyance. Or at least set it aside for a day.
3. Experience matters to voters. I don't understand why BHO's people don't get this yet. Insisting that it doesn't is dumb. It flies in the face of what all of us know. We may not realize it consciously but we all appreciate and take note of experience: from the diner cook to the physician. I don't think BHO has enough experience to be President. But even I could have done a better job framing his small resume. Obama runs from his resume. As for the silliness that Lincoln proves experience doesn't matter...ugh...Lincoln had MUCH more real life experience in 1860 than BHO has now. He risked his entire career opposing the Mexican war. He debated Douglas for entire days before losing his first Senate race. He took principled and wildly unpopular stances in the Illinois Legislature. (In the Democratic party, Obama's stance against the war was, in fact, popular and easy to take.) Obama won't even agree to a one hour townhall with McCain. And the Lincoln analogy simply accents the sense of unnecessary risk many have about Obama. The nation was about to disintegrate in 1860. Do the Obama fanatics think this is about to happen again? Further do they think Obama has shown any of the fortitude needed to handle a massive civil war? Yes, the nation took a risk on Lincoln. A gamble. A huge one. We were blessed and lucky. Lincoln was great because of who he was AND the advent of the civil war. Where we are in 2008 is in no way analogous to where we were in 1860. The Kennedy meme is also silly. JFK's resume was 8 times longer in 1960 than BHO's is now. Further, turning every campaign event into a stunt has worn thin. Enough already.
Skirting his experience problem is a very high risk strategy.

Opinions on most of my posts aside - this is going to be a fun 2 months.