The 30 Rock Effect.

Digging deep into recent polls it seem Barry Obama has some problems. Independents have switched to McCain in droves of late. More than that there is a "Bradley effect" in play. Contrary to the popular notion, the Bradley effect is NOT about secretly racist whites refusing to vote for a candidate of color. The Bradley Effect happens when those polled are afraid of being perceived as racist and therefore mislead the pollster. The "racist" card has been so overused by the Obama camp this year it is conceivable that the true Bradley effect will come into play. Racism has been perceived around every corner.

Recently, I was at a dinner party that two old school liberals attended. Old school Hollywood liberals to be more exact. Both were in their 80's and neither had ever voted Republican. Of course, politics came up. (Actually, national politics is talked in Hollywood relentlessly - local and state politics almost never.) The table broke down this way: 1 Obama voter, 2 undecideds, me- very anti-Obama but not pro McCain either, and the 2 octogenarian liberals - neither liked Obama one bit. They prefaced all remarks by stating their distaste for him had nothing to do with race. It was as if they felt obligated to make their egalitarian bone fides known. I believed them. No reason not to. Believe it or not, it is possible to dislike Obama and not be a bigot.

They had voted straight Democratic tickets from 1944-2004. Which is more than I can say. (I voted for Arnold last time.) At this moment in our history, being perceived as racist has become a bigger problem than being an outright bigot.

It seems to me there is a chunk of traditional Democratic voters this year who will not vote for Obama because they do not like him - end of story. Out of fear, they over explain that race has nothing to do with it. It is not "protesting too much". If they simply said "I don't like him " or "I don't trust him" they have every reason to assume they will be branded "racist." It has happened all year. It has happened to me. And plenty of people I know. I scream "You're a sexist!" right back at them now - usually via email.

On 30 Rock this year, Tina Fey had a moment in which she explained to Mr. Grant - uh - I mean the conservative Alex Baldwin character - that she would tell all her friends she was voting for Obama but secretly vote for McCain. It was a charmingly, hapless moment. And ever so incisive. Maybe we should call it the 30 Rock Effect.

Plenty will happen between now and November. Gasoline, Iran, (Israel may not wait much longer to attack) the economy, and Iraq... McCain's albatross is 8 years of Bush. He may not be able to overcome it. But Obama's albatross is Obama. A heavier load, indeed.