Jumping the Shark

Every fad, every phenomenon, all P.R. created fame, every long lasting television show - jumps the shark at some point. This phrase comes from the episode of the 70's television show Happy Days in which the Fonz literally jumps a shark in a tank while riding a motorcycle. The show had clearly run out of ideas.

Jumping the Shark is the point that the phenomenon passes its peak and usually can only be perceived later. Politically, the shark jump moment often goes unnoticed. When Bush 1 was surprised and amazed by the common grocery store scanner he jumped the shark. He was still quite popular at the time - but in that moment he passed his peak. Many would say Bush 2 jumped during Katrina. But it was months earlier. By getting on a plane in the dead of night to interfere with the Shiavo case he passed the the point of no return politically. 9 months later blundering through the Katrina crisis served as painful confirmation for what many suspected: He was sublimely out of touch. Howard Dean screaming is the moment he became the Fonz over the tank.

So has Obama Jumped the Shark yet? Hard to say. The complete lack of the traditional bump in the polls seems to indicate a weakness in the underpinnings of the campaign. It is hard to fathom that after months of adoring press, a free ride until Wright, a speech maker of his skill is no more than 3 points up on the old guy.

I suspect that the unprecedented move of bulk of the DNC to Chicago gave even the most ardent pro-Obama Democrats pause. It is a remarkable power grab. A power grab made by a campaign that limped across the finish line, and that received a clear minority of votes. Obama is increasingly disliked and distrusted by a large chunk of those who should be his base - yet he moved the DNC lock,stock and barrel (almost) to the most politically corrupt big city in America in order to control it. Is this the moment that the Pro-Obama Democratic establishment starts to quietly question what they have signed on to? If I was a blue dog congressman up for reelection in a swing district I would be getting uncomfortable.

Maybe it has not happened yet. This may just be a lull.

Or maybe its Dean floating the idea that Hillary Clinton's name not be put in nomination. Is this point the arrogance of the Obama machine crossed the line? If Dean succeeds in making the Democratic Convention a gathering of the Comintern - with no dissenting opinions aloud - then the shark will probably have been jumped. Gratefully, I am not longer a Democrat. I don't see this latest power grab as a personal affront - not my party - not my people. Still, I know a thrown elbow when I see one. (it is also an Obama Classic move: get the competitor off the ballot.)

One could argue that the exposure of the Wright Tapes were the Obama shark jumping moment. It took an enormous amount of massaging from the media and manipulation by the Dean/Brazille Brown Shirts to keep the Obama coronation on track after that.

We shall see. The shark has either been jumped by Obama - or will be eventually. It is going to be so much fun to watch him fade.

and yes, I know since I wrote something about BHO tonight that is not adoring I am a racist. Blah, blah, blah...