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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

I wish Peak Oil was not real.

I wish the peak oilers would turn out to be wrong. But since I began reading and exploring the peak theories about oil a few years ago - every prediction seems to be coming to pass.
The housing crash. The real reasons for the war. The devaluation of the dollar. The every increasing price of oil. The promise of production increases that never come to pass. The hard place of needing an ever expanding economy coming up against the brutal rock of geological fact. These are all tangible now.
I can't prove the intangibles but I would bet on them coming soon: a severe shock to economy. A burgeoning realization that even the Saudis can't help us. A severe shock to the American psyche as we realize that cheap energy is never coming back - and as we realize just how badly we have been mislead in the 30 years since Carter told us the fix we were in. The coming confrontation with China, and God forbid, conflagration over Iran. The severe drop in population that must accompany restricted energy. All of this is about oil. There is still plenty. But it is not enough.
I live in the mecca of cheap fossil fuel: Los Angeles. Frankly, I have no idea what to do. I am not a survivalist but I was invited via email this week to participate in a community of those who plan on "surviving" in northern California. These are people I want to dismiss. But I cannot. The email came from a person who is being proven correct with every news cycle.

Even in the best case scenario a major re imagining of society will have to happen. Quickly. I see no evidence that most of us can - or intend to if we could- take the needed steps.
Sadly, I suspect, we will fight for our "way of life" denying that it is over. We will delude ourselves with "alternatives" for a time. I believe we will, collectively, panic. In that moment the worst sort of "leader" can emerge. I see no evidence that we will reject whatever bitter, authoritarian pills are prescribed.
So the only thing I have to recommend is that as many people as possible educate and contextualize the unfolding of the peak oil scenario. See world events through the prism of energy depletion. Sadly, it makes it all make sense.

 

 
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