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Monday, November 26, 2007

chicken hawk orgy.

Rudy is blowing. He is after Mitt Romney over the judge who let a killer kill again. This works on a "retail" level with voters. Ask Dukakis. And it might get him to the GOP nomination. It probably will. The GOP has been very good about not attacking the GOP - and by the time Thompson and the rest wake up to how easy a target Rudy is - it may be too late. Mitt, being desperate, may attack Rudy first. But he too is as easy a target for GOP types. A flip flopping blue state Mormon Governor.

More to the point, Rudy is laying down the end game now. He is making a gruesome bet that is simple. The bet is predicated on one thing: that messianic W will be unable to resist unleashing bombs on Iran. W believes his legacy depends on Iran - not Iraq.
Follow me here. Let's say that the reality of the economic trainwreck becomes apparent to average joes shortly. This is not hard to assume. The stock market is dumping 200 points every few days. Anyone who has been to a gas station or grocery store since friday knows the real inflation rate is closer to 8% than 2%. Suddenly the economy is a bigger issue than Iraq. This plays into Hillary's strengths on the Left. Iraq plays into her strength in the middle.
What can Rudy do? He is now a sure loser - to HER no less.
He can count on "events" like a nation suddenly engulfed in a war with a new enemy. "Security" and "terrorism" are his ONLY cards. Iran, once attacked, will play along perfectly.
Iran is not Iraq - the blow back will be swift and not confined to the region. Venezuela may well cut off oil. Even if they don't the price of gas will zoom. And what if the Iranians make good on their threats to hit us here?
He is betting Bush will pull the trigger on Iran - and if he does it in the summer all the better. The GOP convention will be a chicken hawk orgy staged to scare us into demanding a "leader" just like him. And many of those who have walked away from Bush will return to Rudy.
Who is boxed in now in this scenario? Not Rudy. The magnificent political skills of both Clinton's will be tested to the extreme. Can she insist the bombing was wrong? Not if she wants to win.
Rudy is a pathetically weak candidate.
Unless he can somehow stage manage a return to the one week in September of 2001 in which he mattered.

 

 
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