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Sunday, July 15, 2007

I suspect even Obama knows he is going to lose - this time.

So I was off in my analysis of the Obama $$$ machine - I thought he would be tapped out after the first quarter - ME SO WRONG - The conventional "wisdom" was that he could keep tapping the small donors, and I thought the small donors tend to give what they can - then stop - I may have this wrong - Obama's 18%-24% may keep coughing up 50 bucks here and there - but he still has not budged in the polls. Why? The "grassroots" need some fertilizer. The fact is Hillary (or Billary if you are in Iowa) is a better candidate and a better choice. There are many reasons why this is true - But history is the simplest guide: Why Clinton will win - Resentment wing on the Democratic Party's track record since 1968:
1. Eugene McCarthy 1968
2. George McGovern 1972
3. Jerry Brown 1976
4. Ted Kennedy 1980
5. Gary Hart 1984
6. Jesse Jackson 1988
7. Jerry Brown 1992
8. Bill Bradley 2000
9. Howard Dean 2004
10 Barak Obama 2008
If Obama wants to be President in 2016 he needs to play it cool now - (guess why he is avoiding trouble with Hillary? - Obama knows he is going to lose this time around) He is running for President - in 2016

 

 
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