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Sunday, May 06, 2007

Hillary and the Newsweek poll

The new Newsweek Poll is interesting. Points worth making:
1. Bush is tanking like it's 1979. 28% approval. Summer gasoline prices will lower that number even more.
2.Senator Clinton is still far ahead of the other Dems in the race. Less so than Feb. but I bet that number is back on the rise now.
3. Obama has not budged in 3 months. Again proving my "this guy is Howard Dean 2.0" scenario. And regardless of what the Right wing screeches gleefully about Hillary- the GOP WANTS Obama to be the Dem standard bearer. He is more beatable than Clinton. They know it. The numbers will not reflect this ugly truth for a long while - probably never as Obama will certanily be out by February.
4. Why do I think Hillary's numbers numbers going to go back up on the DEM side soon? She lost support to Edwards not Obama - like it or not Edwards support bump had nothing to do with Edwards. The 400 dollar haircut will drag him down. The "I feel pretty video" is a nicer version of "Macaca". It will not go away.
5. As more people stopping thinking "My God! Hillary Clinton!!?!" and start allowing the history making aspects of her campaign to sink in - her support will rise.
6. I am fascinated by how badly Romney fares against all the Dems and GOP. Funny - a liberal state is willing to give a Mormon a shot - but a conservative party is not.
7. Of the Big 3 Dems Clinton runs worst against the GOPs but still wins. Her studied moderate stances that make the Left wing resentment brigade nuts will serve her well in the General election. The independents are queasy about her. She is already campaigning for them - and it will prove to be wise.
8. I still believe Al Gore and Fred Thompson are Clinton's spoilers. Thompson could defeat her outright in the General. The longer Gore waits, the harder it will be for him to upend Clinton. However, should Gore get in, he will obliterate the Obama campaign.

 

 
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